Ohio redistricting thread

[Nyvin]

I really think there should be 4 safe D seats in the obvious places - 1 in Cincinnati, 1 in Cleaveland, and 2 in Columbus.   After that should be swing seats in Toledo, Dayton, and 2 in the Akron/Cleaveland area.

This would give a map of 7 safe R, 4 safe D, and 4 competitive.   It's something I'd see either a special master or independent commission drawing, since the district really are pretty clean and obvious.  Some clean up around the lines, sure, but the overall configuration should give the same result.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ecce9e75-ff70-476c-b32e-c18e826235da

[Nyvin]

That is fine. Your metric is involves judgement calls as to COI's as to what belongs with what not tied to geographic categories fashioned by law (counties, munis, MSA's, community districts) and what is fair. The one I try to follow is done by a computer. No humans need apply.

So we can agree to disagree. Life is beautiful.

Well, part of the problem is that I don’t know how to post a DRA map to Atlas

I try to hew to county boundaries when reasonably possible.  I think any of the issues I raised leads to wildly unreasonable County splitting or even significantly more County splits than your map (less in some cases, like Franklin County).  I don’t think my proposal would split many more counties or even municipalities than yours does (quite possibly fewer chops, in fact), but it would simultaneously be a lot better from a COI perspective.  At the very least, to say your proposal respects geographic categories created by the law significantly more than mine is simply not accurate as a matter of fact.  

But as you say, we can agree to disagree.  

I'd agree.  Any computer that draws an arm going from Lake County down to Medina County is definitely not some "divinely neutral" system.

[Nyvin]

Northern Franklin + Delaware County is an extremely natural pairing,  I can't see any possible reason not to put them together aside from partisan interests. 

The municipal lines cross the county border, the urban area of the Columbus metro extends northward, both have similar income levels, and the two counties together are just barely short of 2 districts.  It's pretty much a perfect match.

[Nyvin]

I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the court approves a "worse" map than the one that's in place now.

[Nyvin]

The state supreme court declared the current map unconstitutional but a federal court ordered that it be used for the 2022 cycle due to the time constraints of the state primary.

So basically the federal court ordered something that was declared illegal be used for 2022.

[Nyvin]

One question I have is would the new Conservative OH Court majority have any ability to block a redistricting commission from getting on the ballot, or somehow strike it down as unconstitutional if successfully passed? No state courts have ever struck down a redistricting commission via ballot initiative before, but we have seen weak commissions such as that in UT made powerless by the state legislature.

In Ohio ballot initiatives add amendments to the state constitution, so there's no way for the state court to strike it down once passed.   They can block the measure from getting on the ballot though if it doesn't meet requirements.

In Utah initiatives are just made statutes that the legislature can adjust at will,  I guess officially the state court could strike down a statute passed by ballot measure, but it'd be weird to since they allowed the measure on the ballot in the first place.

[Nyvin]

In other news, this iteration is quite an effective Pubmander while hewing to all the right metrics, and would score very high under the Muon2 rules. Pity that apparently both the Pubs (at least some of the Pub politicians) and Mr. X would hate it.     One would think making Jim Jordan sweat like a pig hog would make it all worth it, but probably not. So sad. It's really quite fabulously gorgeous.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/247a02d0-0668-485c-904f-985a27ed4192

The Columbus area is the only part of the map that's really Republican-friendly.  I'd say the rest is pretty neutral.   Maybe the Dayton district nudges in the GOP's direction a little.

[Nyvin]

Reminder that the 2024 Redistricting Amendment looms over anything and everything taking place right now. If that passes in the form it has been drafted, the body would immediately be constituted and remap everything within it's authority.

This comission would be more powerful I take it?

More importantly is that it would remove the politicians from the commission.

[Nyvin]

That's good, so the only redistricting win Republicans will really have in 2024 is in North Carolina, and that's probably only good for three seats max.

[Nyvin]

Now watch the nY high court side with the gop lol

Pretty gross to see red avatars rooting for disgusting gerrymander. You are an opponent of democracy.

The NY map is extremely fair. The initial one was a disgusting gerrymander.

The current NC map is also extremely fair.  If Republicans would just leave that one as is, I’m sure Dems would agree to leave the current NY one as is.

I would honestly really love it if "deals" like this were possible.

[Nyvin]

The Dayton Senate seat is 55.2% Biden now,  it gained Trotwood and lost Miamisburg.  That's probably the biggest change on the Senate map, SD-24 got a bit more R, so did a few others like SD-2.

DRA Senate - https://davesredistricting.org/join/e5122c05-246d-4bed-ac5f-0aa372a5253e

The Dems floor got better, but kind of a hard ceiling of around ~12 or 13 seats now, and even that'll be tough.

[Nyvin]

Here's the approved text of the proposed amendment -

https://citizensnotpoliticians.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/CNP-Amendment-for-Web.pdf

It does seem to put proportionality high on the list of determining districts -

Provide that in order to ban partisan gerrymandering and redistricting plans that favor or disfavor a political party, the statewide proportion of districts in a redistricting plan that favors each political party shall correspond closely to statewide partisan preferences of the voters of Ohio and provide how the statewide proportion of districts that favors a political party shall be determined, how the statewide partisan preferences of Ohio voters shall be determined, and that “correspond closely” shall mean that the statewide proportion of districts that favors a political party shall not deviate by more than three percentage points in either direction from the statewide partisan preferences of Ohio voters unless arithmetically impossible, in which case the closest possible proportion greater than three percentage points shall govern

So if using 2020 Pres numbers as a baseline (I assume they use some combination of elections or something) then 45.24% - 3% = 42.24% of seats.   15 * 42.24% = 6.33 seats.  So the map would have to be something like 8R-6D-1s.   

6 safe D seats is actually pretty tough so I imagine there's some wiggle room there or something.

Also if the commission doesn't produce a map the Ohio Supreme Court appoints two special masters that are held to the same proportionality metrics -

Provide that the Ohio Supreme Court will have exclusive original jurisdiction in all cases that contend that an adopted plan fails to comply with the proportionality and incumbency and candidacy provisions set forth in Section 6(B) of the Amendment. Such a case may be filed by any Ohio elector and shall proceed as follows: a petition challenging the plan must be filed within 10 days of the Commission issuing its explanatory report; if more than one case is filed, they must be consolidated;

Only the Commission will have standing to respond to the challenge; the bipartisan Panel, with assistance from the professional search firm, shall create a pool of at least 6 potential special masters following qualifications and disqualifications set forth in the Amendment; the Supreme Court shall by unanimous vote select two special masters from the pool created by the bipartisan Panel; and if the Court fails to make such selections, the administrative director of the Court
shall randomly select two special masters from the pool.

34. Provide that the two special masters shall review the record before the Commission and hold a public hearing, after which they must issue a report as to whether the Commission abused its discretion in its determination that the adopted plan complies with the partisan fairness criteria required by the Amendment for a redistricting plan;

If a person who filed a challenge or the Commission disagrees with the report of the special masters, the person may file objections with the Court and after a public hearing on the objections and a review of the record before the Commission, the Court will rule whether the Commission abused its discretion in determining that the adopted plan complies with the criteria set forth in the Amendment

The amendment also doesnt say anything about not splitting cities and it fully repeals the old commission that prevented splitting 100k+ cities, so I guess to create one of the safe D seats they'll probably split Cleveland.