Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)

[Virginiá]

ahaa. Called it:

https://twitter.com/CraigJ_NandO/status/1068157984906387456

[Virginiá]

Can the democrats please stop trying to steal elections?

I'm confused. It's the Republican Party that keeps saying that voter fraud is an epidemic, so when a bipartisan board unanimously holds back certification and suspects mischief, you accuse Democrats of shenanigans?

[Virginiá]

I think this situation was actually mentioned as part of the reason why they can call a new election - because regardless if the actual fraudulent votes discovered are enough to flip the result, it creates enough doubt in the result that a new one must be held, given that election results must be trusted to some degree.

Point being that if there were hundreds of fraudulent votes cast in an organized scheme to change the result, there could be more votes they didn't find or other legitimate votes destroyed. So whether or not the votes discovered can change the results is irrelevant.

[Virginiá]

Its also possible the Democratic House just refuses to seat Harris and calls for special election.

absolutely disgusting
Let this bipartisan board do it together. If scotus rules that the board is unconstitutional but the board says for SE id be fine them refusing to seat Harris but the house should not be able to do this.

I mean there are instances where the House refusing to seat someone would be legitimate, such as where the state refuses to investigate and take action on rather blatant fraud. Not that North Carolina is an instance of this (so far, though case looks strong), but the House being able to refuse to seat is a good backstop in a country where states hold a lot of power over elections to Congress.

Also, if the NCGOP tries to short-circuit this investigation in any way, then yes, it would make sense to refuse to seat him. I think the state party is already suing to force them to certify it, so that is one step towards trying to sweep this under the rug.

-

Overall I think it wouldn't be wise to refuse to seat Harris though, unless it becomes clear that there are more fraudulent votes for him that put him over the top. Democrats have to remember that just because you can do something, does not mean you should. It's also something I really wish Republicans would learn as well (no hope there tho). Otherwise, it'd be better to just dismantle the group responsible for these fraudulent ballots and put them in prison, along with anyone who supported them.

[Virginiá]

The bipartisan board is already left leaning with the indie . The board should have the final decision unless it's obvious

Well I was speaking more generally about the fundamental authority to seat or not seat a Rep-elect whose win is tainted.

But in NC's case, there are a couple issues:

1. The actual structure of the elections board is due to revert back to its old form before this ordeal is over, with the Governor's party holding a majority of seats, because one of the many attempts the NCGOP has made to change the structure to benefit their party was ruled unconstitutional. This is why Harris's campaign is asking the court to stay that decision until after this is resolved.

2. The NCGOP has never been shy about flexing its legislative muscle to rush through rule changes or other schemes to benefit themselves when they feel they might lose an election, or when they have lost but want to nullify the results as much as possible. They called a special session earlier this year just to strip the GOP party registration of the spoiler candidate in the state supreme race (I think they also made other small changes to the rules to benefit their candidate). I'm not convinced they won't try to change the rules of the election board before this is over in order to prevent a new election.

They already have a special session about to start (or has started already) and rumors are that they are attempting to change the election boards again as a 4th attempt to either seize control entirely or make the board so dysfunctional that neither party can do anything.

Situations like this should make it clear why they are so desperate to maintain control of the election + ethics boards.

[Virginiá]

^^ Also worth keeping in mind that there seem to be a number of cases where they took ballots from who were probably Democrats, and presumably changed them to Harris or never submitted the ballots. Turning McCready votes into Harris votes is worse than just adding a Harris vote. Further, who knows how many absentee ballots for McCready were never turned in that would have otherwise been so.

The damage from this could definitely have flipped the result if what has been alleged in affidavits is true and more widespread. This is why a new election is a reasonable option even if the # of fraudulent votes does not surpass Harris's winning margin. No clue how many McCready votes were changed or destroyed outright.

[Virginiá]

btw whats everyone opinion on California's ballot harvesting. No I am not using whataboutism as this would be comparing legalized prostitution to illegal prostitution as in California it is legal.

Does anyone else feel like that should be illegal in California?

I consider myself vehemently pro-voter in terms of restrictions vs access, and I'm not sure I agree that campaign workers and other paid individuals should be able to take ballots and return them. I feel like there is too much room for abuse, and California's elections have become so voter-friendly that it is hard to argue that this is needed.

I want to try and strike a balance between voter-friendly policy and a free-for-all that results in some high-profile incident that the right never stops using against Democrats as a way to delegitimize an election. With trust in our institutions constantly declining, the last thing we need is more reasons for people to lose faith in our elections.

OTOH, "ballot harvesting" is not even legal in North Carolina and it still happened, so whether its' technically legal or not may not be that important when it comes to fraud.

[Virginiá]

No, mail it in or take it in. No one should be handling them other than Election officials and they shouldn’t be going to peoples houses to get them. There are restrictions; they were violated here resulting in a fraud investigation.

We're talking about hypothetical for states where it is legal for people to pick up ballots and deliver them for others.

[Virginiá]

I really want to hear Kris Kobach's response to all this voter fraud.

Well if he's like every other Republican, the only answer is to slash early voting and make it harder to register to vote, regardless if the fraud in question had anything to do with it.

If no one can vote, there won't be any more fraud!

[Virginiá]

Absentee ballot envelopes in North Carolina fit into "a pattern of fraud"

https://popular.info/p/exclusive-absentee-ballot-envelopes

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Virginiá]

I'd just like to add here that this is a fairly good example of why voter fraud on a mass scale is practically non-existent: people are too stupid and too reckless, and with the highly-connected world we live in, there are too many people watching and too much detailed data to watch. On top of that, the electorate is too big, so you'd have to somehow be ready to turn in as many of thousands and thousands of votes to guarantee a flip. There are just too many moving parts, too many ways to screw up, too many ways to fall short, and too many interactions with real people that end up leaving a trail of evidence.

In this case, yes, they didn't get caught until after the election, but that might not matter in the end. Based on what we're seeing, I think he only way to swing this election illegally without getting caught would take a lot more sophistication and effort than we're seeing here.

[Virginiá]

When you offer driver’s licenses to anyone and then only require a deiver’s license to vote, it is not unreasonable for an outsider to think that maybe the state doesn’t care about non-citizens voting. Look up the laws and requirements in California if you don’t believe me.

California drives licenses for undocumented immigrants aren't the same as for citizens.

[Virginiá]

Democrats are trying to steal another Congressional Race. They always do.

*plonk*

I don't think he's read any of what is going on. He probably just waved it off as a "nothingburger" since it doesn't benefit his party. I don't really see how any objective person could deny what is going on here. It's not like the 99% of other cases where Republicans cry wolf yet have zero evidence of any wrongdoing. In this case, there is copious amounts of evidence.

[Virginiá]

Also IMO  Cooper should have appointed one of the GOP members as head of the board while the replacement is still a dem.
It seems the GOP members are fairly bipartisan and willing to work so he could picked one of the two.
By replacing a contraversial dem with another dem the optics aren't great.

They are working together for now, but this is North Carolina. That could easily change, especially given that there is a House seat at stake. The NCGOP has built up a solid reputation as totally untrustworthy and consumed by greed and a lust for power, so they should never be given the benefit of the doubt. Now, if we were in another state, perhaps you're right, sure.

[Virginiá]

I mean the optics would clearly look much better. Or atleast the indie should have been appointed the head. It really isn't good to make the head the head a dem again IMO.

I don't even think it matters at this point. There is a lot of evidence mounting here, and the state GOP already seems to have established that it wants the race certified even if it takes a lawsuit, so I don't think giving them a functional majority on the board is going to help the optics. And if we need a new election, I seriously doubt Fox News, Trump and the state party are going to react any different than if there were 5 Democrats instead of 4.

Living through the past 3 years makes it impossible for me to come to any other conclusion. Say what you want about them, but they don't operate in good faith and haven't for a long time.

[Virginiá]

And I think so long as McCready is unable to catch up, Harris should be certified regardless of fraud. An insurmountable race ought to lead to certification.

Well there's the problem right there.

[Virginiá]

I wonder if it's even possible to not seat Harris if fraud hasn't yet been proven to be responsible for his win:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Powell_v._McCormack
https://www.oyez.org/cases/1968/138

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This does imply that the House can refuse to seat him if he wasn't "lawfully elected," but I'm unsure at what point speculation, regardless of how much evidence there seems to be, becomes legally relevant. It doesn't seem like the House can refuse to seat him just because some of the votes are fraudulent.

They could expel him with a 2/3 majority though.

[Virginiá]

Pat McCrory won Bladen county by 6 points. Roy Cooper won absentees by 23. Looks like there needs to be another investigation....into the governor.

Cool. What was the discrepancy statewide and in neighboring counties? What stands out with Harris’s fraud is how insane the numbers are compared to every other county in the state. He won absentees with 96% of the vote! Was Cooper in the 90s in Bladen?

Harris won 96% in the primary, mind. He "only" won 61% of absentees in the general.

The curious thing about the general is that the makeup of the absentee voter pool was something like 20% GOP, 40% Independent, 40% Democrat, so even factoring in Demosaurs, getting 61% for the R out of that pool is...implausible.

The questions of fraud atm are regarding the general, and I don't see why everyone is quick to ignore the similarly odd numbers for Cooper and ignore those for Harris. Its especially odd given Cooper's relative lack of activism on the issue.

I mean, if what you're saying about Cooper was all we had to go on for Harris, I'd think nothing of this whole ordeal. The ballot harvesting scheme we are seeing copious amounts of reporting on is really what is concerning for me. Otherwise I don't like to speculate about election results that much without some sort of reason to (unless a candidate is winning North Korea-style numbers in competitive districts/states/etc, of course)

[Virginiá]

Called it:

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1070102416828325896

[Virginiá]

If NC Republicans had to celebrate Christmas in the legislature chamber(s) in order to secure a Congressional seat possibly stolen via fraud, they absolutely would.

[Virginiá]

Inside The North Carolina Republican Vote Machine: Cash, Pills — And Ballots

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/briannasacks/dowless-britt-inside-north-carolina-absentee-ballot-machine

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This is coming from actual people related to Dowless or who married into that family though, so I would take some of this with a grain of salt. I'm surprised they said anything at all, actually.

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/AllisonWSOC9/status/1070352495346622470

Hot take: this election is proof of why voter fraud isn't endemic in America: to steal enough votes to make a difference, like these guys apparently did, you have to trigger a million alarm bells. Fraud on the scale necessary, as committed here, leaves a gigantic paper trail.

That is false. Fraud on an institutional level raises alarm bells sure. But fraud on an individual level raises practically no alarm bells because we have set things up so that there aren’t any alarm bells in the first place.

In that case, the question is how much we should care if someone casts two or so ballots in violation of the law and at great risk to their own freedom. It's wrong and we should take reasonable steps to prevent it, but reasonable to me means not passing regulations that noticeably reduce turnout. Well, unless this kind of fraud becomes a constant, major problem.

[Virginiá]

Does this mean that the voter fraud in California will also be investigated?

Actually people are being investigated and charged:

https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-skid-row-voter-fraud-20181120-story.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Seems like this was mostly petition-related because they were being paid per-petition and rates had skyrocketed due to the # of initiatives. So it's not really the same, and not as interesting.

-

HOWEVER, if you want to talk about this, make another thread. This isn't a fraud megathread. It's specifically about North Carolina / NC-09. I will split off conversations about this if they balloon in size. Whatboutism isn't relevant to this thread.

[Virginiá]

For the record, please avoid posting large numbers of tweets in a single post. ~3 or so should be the maximum. If there are more tweets you want to share, just use the links instead.

[Virginiá]

Pittenger's people claim they told the state and national parties, national denies and state says they didn't look into it closely.

Why let a little fraud get in the way of winning?