Can someone provide the Cliffs Notes version of jim's post? It looks like the explanation for fraud that caused incredible and atypical Republican results is "Democrats did something bad" but that is so confusing that I won't believe it.
In 2018, the Republican candidate for Congress in Bladen County got 60% of the votes on election day. He received 61% of the absentee ballots
In Anson County, the election day race was about 50-50. The Democratic candidate got about 75% of the absentee vote.
Which is more atypical?
Here is the story from 2016.
Protest filed in Bladen County over alleged fraudulent absentee ballotsThere was an unopposed candidate for a non-partisan office in Bladen County. There was a write-in challenger. As a election clerk was going through the ballots he noticed the similarity in hand-writing of "Franklin Graham", the candidate favored by the Bladen County Improvement PAC, an organization that is funded by the Democratic Party and some Democratic candidates. For example, in 2016, Ken Spaulding, Roy Cooper's opponent in the Democratic Primary, contributed to the PAC, and Bladen County was his best county in the state. Statewide, Cooper had about 2/3 of the vote, but 2/3 of the vote in Bladen County.
This is even more pronounced for absentee ballots. In the 2016 primary:
President: Hillary Clinton 54% statewide, 83% absentee in Bladen.
US Senator: Chris Rey 17% statewide, 84% absentee Bladen.
Governor: Ken Spaulding 31% statewide, 74% absentee Bladen.
Lieutenant Governor: Robert Earl Wilson 11% statewide, 77% absentee Bladen.
Attorney General: Marcus Wilson 47% statewide , 90% absentee Bladen.
Commissioner of Labor: Charles Meeker 57% statewide, 90% absentee Bladen.
Superintendent of Public Instruction: June Atkinson 85% statewide, 95% absentee Bladen.
Treasurer: Dan Blue III 58% statewide, 89% absentee Bladen.
Election day and early voting had somewhat similar results, but not as pronounced. That is, the Bladen County Public Improvement PAC can suggest how to vote, but a voter would be free to vote their choices in private. I suspect, white voters may be less inclined to follow the recommendations of the PAC (Bladen County is 38% black. To see geographic distribution display a political map of the county).
North Carolina requires the marking of an absentee ballot to be witnessed by two persons (one, if a notary). A runner can help you apply for an absentee ballot, which will be mailed to the voter's mailbox. But before it can be marked, there has to be two witnesses. So presumably two runners come back to witness the voters marking the ballot. The statute says that the witnesses should respect the secrecy of the ballot.
But if you are the witness, could you stand out on the front porch and be sure that the voters actually marked the ballot? Besides what kind of rural North Carolinian is going to leave a visitor standing on the porch. They might do that in Fayetteville or Wilmington, and who knows what kind of stuff goes on in Charlotte or Raleigh, but not in Bladen County. A voter may ask for assistance. The assistant is to mark the ballot at the voter's direction.
So the witnesses hand the voter the sample ballot, and avert their eyes as they drink their lemonade, and murmur their assent when the voter says she wishes that Obama was running again, "Yes'm".
Perhaps the voter doesn't have her eyeglasses, or her arthritis is acting up and it is hard to hold a pen. So the witnesses read the sample ballot. "For governor, it says to vote for Ken Spaulding. Should I mark the ballot for Spaulding?"
Or maybe the voters finishes the ballot, and the witness asks if they had voted for Water & Soil Supervisor (it was 29th office on the ballot, the only non-partisan office, and only had one on-ballot candidate). Maybe the witness takes a look at the sample ballot, and notes, "I see that there is a write-in candidate Franklin Graham, do you want me to write his name in?" The witness then writes the name in at the "request" of the voter.
The witness is then to observe the voter placing the ballot in the envelope and sealing it. The voter then fills in a form, and signs it, and the witnesses sign it. In addition, if someone assisted the voter, the assistant is supposed to sign the form.
Horace Dunn's explanation was that the runners didn't realize that they were supposed to sign as assisters, even if they only wrote "Franklin Graham" even if they didn't do the bubbles. The runners may or may not have actually been paid per voter, but only compensated for gas and other expenses. If any runners took advantage of the PAC it was only due to poor bookkeeping.
This was all brought up after the McCrory-Cooper election, when the curiosity of dozens of ballots with "Franklin Graham" written in the same hand, was claimed to be an example of widespread election fraud that had cost McCrory the election.
But it is difficult to prove actual fraud, since there were likely actual voters, and they were willing to be influenced by persons who were supposed to be witnesses as they marked the ballot (if someone is supposed to maintain the secrecy of the ballot, should they hand the voter a sample ballot recommending to the voter how they should vote?). It is a system that is susceptible to corruption.
At the 2016 primary, Ken Register upset an incumbent Democrati county commissioner, Wayne Edge. By a 948:929 margin. The 19 vote margin was just outside the one percent margin to trigger a recount. Register won the absentee vote 189:14.
Edge received 54.7% of the in-person voting, both one-stop and election day, but only 6.9% of the absentee vote.Register would go on to lose the general election to a Republican who I suspect is the first Republican elected as county commissioner in an Bladen County district since Reconstruction. Register made a claim that memory sticks had been tampered with and also claimed absentee ballot fraud. The Republican, Ashley Trivette received 55.8% of the live vote, but only 28.5% of the absentee vote.
Edge ran for the county commission as a Republican in 2018, but narrowly lost to an incumbent Democrat. There are two commissioners from each of three districts, who are elected to overlapping 4-year terms.
Meanwhile in another district, a Democrat-turned Republican was re-elected with 64% of the vote. He had been unchallenged as a Democrat in 2014. The NC representative for the county was also re-elected as a Democrat-turned Republican (he had voted for the Republican redistricting plans and generally sided with the majority).
The three at-large members of the county commission are elected under a limited voting scheme where each voter is limited to one vote. At the 2016 primary, the press noted that the Democrats had chosen their two commissioners, apparently assuming that the normal pattern on one black Democrat, one white Democrat, and one Republican would hold. But in the general election, the black Democrat took so much of the Democratic vote, that two Republicans were elected.
38% of the county is black. That is enough to control the Democratic primary, but not to prevent Republican dominance if they do take control of the primary.
So what is being missed by the press is this longtime practice of curious absentee voting in Bladen County. The NCSBE Democrat member from Robeson County when he noted this long sad history in his part of the state, was not talking about Republicans. What eventually will be determined is that absentee voting is susceptible to corruption, but that no actual fraud took place. Mark Harris will be elected.
Fun fact. The composition of the NCSBE has been ruled unconstitutional by a state court (in October). They stayed their decision until the NCSBE has certified the election results. Does the NCSBE stay in place with their current nine-member board, or does Cooper demand a 3:2 Democrat-dominated board take its place and take over investigation?
