Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)

[TomC]

https://twitter.com/NickOchsnerWBTV/status/1070044877298249728

Quite interesting!

Jeff Smith is portrayed as some sort of whistleblower in the general election.

North Carolina election-fraud investigation centers on operative with criminal history who worked for GOP congressional candidate

But in the primary election, Billy Ward, the candidate favored by Jeff Smith, got 55% of all his votes from absentee ballots. Jim McVicker, the  candidate supported by McRae Dowless got 92% of the election day votes, but only 55% of the absentee vote.

McVickers is the incumbent sheriff and this race would include NC7 house voters, where, I assume, Dowless wasn’t offered a $40k bonus. I think McVickers’ opponent was an African American man. Recall the African American woman’s affidavit where she had filled in two local races but left the others (including NC9) blank?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Read this whole thread.  It's just...wow.

https://twitter.com/JuddLegum/status/1070149544724365312

[Brittain33]

It's weird to see the name Joe Bruno show up as the reporter on this story when I associate that name with NY Senate Republicans in the past.

[Person Man]

These Republican idiots obviously don't understand that by shielding Harris and the fraudsters are giving one more excuse to the House to refuse seating him and order a new election.

Just say he wasn't actually elected, right?

[The Mikado]

Read this whole thread.  It's just...wow.

https://twitter.com/JuddLegum/status/1070149544724365312

The best part is the two different fraud guys getting into an escalating blood feud of sorts with each other.

[jimrtex]

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1070078822790455297

The NCSBE sent letters out between October 29 and November 2nd, informing voters who had requested absentee ballots that only they or family members should return absentee ballots; that they had a right to a secret ballot, and how to check the status of an absentee ballot. It included a notice that it was important that the envelope be opened, and included a hot line number.

The 71 pages are 2 per page envelopes that were returned by the USPS. They were pretty weird. The USPS would say no such address, but I could type the address and find it on Google. One even showed up on Zillow. There were a bunch that said that there was no mail receptacle. It is possible that the NCSBE sent the notice to the voter's address, and not the address that they received mail at.

The dump also includes lists of who brought in the requests for absentee ballots. The voter (or a near relative) must make the request, but it can be delivered to the BCBE by anyone. Dozens were brought in by McRae Dowless, but also Democrat operatives. Others appeared to be from individual families.

There is a 2720 page document made up pf absentee ballot requests. Some of the requests have the voter name, address, etc. printed on them, all the voter had to do was sign the request. An oddity for many of this was that the voters marked that they wanted a Democratic ballot for the general election. Apparently Republicans are better able to read insructions that the check box applies to primary elections. There was also a batch with the voter's names and addresses printed in the same handwriting, the signatures were redacted, but the signing dates were in unique scripts. Another had written set consistently used "E'town" for "Elizabethtown".

There are a few where the BCBE sent a form back to the voter to complete. Some voters were not registered to vote. North Carolina permits a voter to register at the same time they early vote (i.e. One Stop) or vote by absentee. If the voter was not registered, the BCBE would send a registration form, and a new absentee request form, with the name and address typed in.

I only looked through the first 303 pages (of 2720). Based on that sample there were around 1850 absentee ballot requests.

There was also a file with the names and addresses of the voters who made an absentee ballot request, but did not receive a ballot. Nothing like tainting an investigation by making public the list so the press can go interview the voters.

Race breakdown: 134 Black, 335 White.

Party breakdown: 167 Democrat, 121 Republican, 195 unaffiliated.

With campaigns enabling/encouraging voters to make absentee ballot requests, it is not remarkable that a large number were not returned.

Campaigner: Can we count on your vote?
Voter: I don't know. I might have to go down to Wilmington that day.

or

Voter: Didn't we have an election last year? What was that guy who wore the baseball caps?
Campaigner: Donald Trump?
Voter: Yeah that's him, he's married to Obamalenia, right?
Campaigner: That was two years ago, He is president.
Voter: So why are we having another election?

Campaigner: You can vote absentee.
Voter: Abson Teague? Who's he?
Campaigner: You can vote by mail, they'll send you a ballot and all you have to do is send it back in. Here just fill out this form.

The campaigner knows that the voter won't vote, but he gets paid for collecting the form anyhow.

[jimrtex]

Called it:

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1070102416828325896

Virginia, what would the bill H 1117 do?

[Virginiá]

Inside The North Carolina Republican Vote Machine: Cash, Pills — And Ballots

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/briannasacks/dowless-britt-inside-north-carolina-absentee-ballot-machine

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This is coming from actual people related to Dowless or who married into that family though, so I would take some of this with a grain of salt. I'm surprised they said anything at all, actually.

[brucejoel99]

Called it:

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1070102416828325896

Virginia, what would the bill H 1117 do?

Not Virginia, but HB 1117 would revert the state & county election boards back to where they started before the past nearly 2 years of legislative & judicial maneuvering regarding the boards. The potential change back to 3-member county boards comes after an October decision by a 3-judge panel in Wake County that ruled the current makeup that was implemented in December 2016 is unconstitutional (the court left the current 9-member board in place until Dec. 12th while the election investigation is underway) & after NC voters declined to give lawmakers power over the elections board through a constitutional amendment.

Basically, the bill would have the county election boards revert back to 3 members. Out of those 3-member county boards, 2 of the members will have members from the Governor's party. The state board would go from the current 9-member configuration of 4 Republicans, 4 Democrats & 1 independent voter to 5 members, with 3 from the Governor's party.

In particular, the bill would once again split the agency under the oversight of two boards. The 5-member board, controlled by the Governor, would handle only the administration of elections. As has been the practice in the past, the Governor would appoint 3 members of his own party & 2 members of the other major party from lists of candidates recommended by the respective party leaders. A 2nd, 8-member bipartisan board would handle ethics, campaign finance & lobbying, w/ 1/2 the board appointed by the Governor & the other 1/2 by state lawmakers.

At the county level, the 4-member bipartisan boards instituted by lawmakers but scuttled by the courts would return to their traditional 3-member format, w/ the state board appointing the members and the Governor's party having a 2-1 majority. However, the law would still require Republicans on each county board to serve as chair in election years.

The bill would also repeal the long-standing law that state political investigations are handled by the Wake County District Attorney's Office, moving those investigations instead to the prosecutorial district in which the candidate resides.

The proposal would also repeal 6 boards & commissions whose structures were found unconstitutional by judges last month: the State Building Commission, the Child Care Commission, the Clean Water Management Trust Fund Board of Trustees, the state Parks & Recreation Authority, the Private Protective Services Board, & the Rural Infrastructure Authority.

And in what appears to be a rebuke, the measure would repeal the Constitutional Amendment Publication Commission, the 3-member panel charged w/ writing descriptions of proposed constitutional amendments for voter information materials. The 2 Democrats on the commission this year, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall & Attorney General Josh Stein, were outspoken on their opinion that state lawmakers wrote deceptive ballot descriptions of the 6 proposed amendments in the the November election. 4 of the 6 were approved.

However, the bill is likely to change in its next version after having been heard in the House Elections committee.

[The Mikado]

https://twitter.com/AllisonWSOC9/status/1070352495346622470

Hot take: this election is proof of why voter fraud isn't endemic in America: to steal enough votes to make a difference, like these guys apparently did, you have to trigger a million alarm bells. Fraud on the scale necessary, as committed here, leaves a gigantic paper trail.

[Alabama_Indy10]

I haven’t commented on any of this yet but my gosh. This is some messed up stuff.

[UncleSam]

https://twitter.com/AllisonWSOC9/status/1070352495346622470

Hot take: this election is proof of why voter fraud isn't endemic in America: to steal enough votes to make a difference, like these guys apparently did, you have to trigger a million alarm bells. Fraud on the scale necessary, as committed here, leaves a gigantic paper trail.

That is false. Fraud on an institutional level raises alarm bells sure. But fraud on an individual level raises practically no alarm bells because we have set things up so that there aren’t any alarm bells in the first place.

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/AllisonWSOC9/status/1070352495346622470

Hot take: this election is proof of why voter fraud isn't endemic in America: to steal enough votes to make a difference, like these guys apparently did, you have to trigger a million alarm bells. Fraud on the scale necessary, as committed here, leaves a gigantic paper trail.

That is false. Fraud on an institutional level raises alarm bells sure. But fraud on an individual level raises practically no alarm bells because we have set things up so that there aren’t any alarm bells in the first place.

In that case, the question is how much we should care if someone casts two or so ballots in violation of the law and at great risk to their own freedom. It's wrong and we should take reasonable steps to prevent it, but reasonable to me means not passing regulations that noticeably reduce turnout. Well, unless this kind of fraud becomes a constant, major problem.

[lfromnj]

I haven’t commented on any of this yet but my gosh. This is some messed up stuff.

Yeah at first I was suspicious but the bipartisan unanimous ruling convinced me to pay attention. It's crazy and I'm now pretty sure Harris knew about the fraud

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/AllisonWSOC9/status/1070352495346622470

Hot take: this election is proof of why voter fraud isn't endemic in America: to steal enough votes to make a difference, like these guys apparently did, you have to trigger a million alarm bells. Fraud on the scale necessary, as committed here, leaves a gigantic paper trail.

That is false. Fraud on an institutional level raises alarm bells sure. But fraud on an individual level raises practically no alarm bells because we have set things up so that there aren’t any alarm bells in the first place.

In that case, the question is how much we should care if someone casts two or so ballots in violation of the law and at great risk to their own freedom. It's wrong and we should take reasonable steps to prevent it, but reasonable to me means not passing regulations that noticeably reduce turnout. Well, unless this kind of fraud becomes a constant, major problem.

In a perfect world, zero valid voters would be disenfranchised, and it would be easy and convenient for every one of them to vote; at the same time, it would be impossible for an invalid voter to get through the system and cast a vote.  But the world isn't perfect; it's impossible to design a practical system where both of these are true.  In terms of the negative effect on an election, each of these events (preventing a valid vote or allowing an invalid vote) should have equal weight.  

Consider these cases (the numbers are made up, but illustrate the point):

Case A (perfect world): 0 valid votes prevented, 0 invalid votes allowed.  The result is "correct".

Case B: 1000 valid votes prevented, 1000 invalid votes allowed.  The result is potentially off by as much as 2000 votes.

Case C: 20000 valid votes prevented, 100 invalid votes allowed.  The result is potentially off by as much as 20,100 votes.

Case D: 100 valid votes prevented, 20000 invalid votes allowed.  The result is potentially off by as much as 20,100 votes.  This is the mirror image of Case C.

Clearly, if we can't get to the perfect world of Case A, we should aim to be closer to Case B (with a maximum error of 2000 votes) than either C or D (with a maximum error of 20,100 votes).  In practice, far more valid voters get disenfranchised or discouraged than invalid votes get through.  Some people like to claim that "millions of illegal aliens" cast votes, but these claims are not backed up by evidence.  Studies of the issue have shown that the actual number of invalid votes cast is minuscule.  That is, voting rules are weighted far too heavily on preventing votes as opposed to enabling them, and what we have now is Case C.  We need to move toward B.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/JoeBrunoWSOC9/status/1070059533387612161
https://twitter.com/JoeBrunoWSOC9/status/1070077462950895616
https://twitter.com/JoeBrunoWSOC9/status/1070078630435405826
https://twitter.com/JoeBrunoWSOC9/status/1070079203343781890
https://twitter.com/JoeBrunoWSOC9/status/1070081596227751936
https://twitter.com/JoeBrunoWSOC9/status/1070085292193972225
https://twitter.com/JoeBrunoWSOC9/status/1070087070494941187
https://twitter.com/JoeBrunoWSOC9/status/1070366048510193664

[Woody]

Does this mean that the voter fraud in California will also be investigated?

[Politician]

Does this mean that the voter fraud in California will also be investigated?

Lol

[pppolitics]

Does this mean that the voter fraud in California will also be investigated?

Do you always get your talking points from Fox News?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Does this mean that the voter fraud in California will also be investigated?

What voter fraud?  Provide specifics.

[Virginiá]

Does this mean that the voter fraud in California will also be investigated?

Actually people are being investigated and charged:

https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-skid-row-voter-fraud-20181120-story.html

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Seems like this was mostly petition-related because they were being paid per-petition and rates had skyrocketed due to the # of initiatives. So it's not really the same, and not as interesting.

-

HOWEVER, if you want to talk about this, make another thread. This isn't a fraud megathread. It's specifically about North Carolina / NC-09. I will split off conversations about this if they balloon in size. Whatboutism isn't relevant to this thread.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Does this mean that the voter fraud in California will also be investigated?

Never change.

[Virginiá]

For the record, please avoid posting large numbers of tweets in a single post. ~3 or so should be the maximum. If there are more tweets you want to share, just use the links instead.

[President Phil Scott]

Does this mean that the voter fraud in California will also be investigated?

Actually people are being investigated and charged:

https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-skid-row-voter-fraud-20181120-story.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Seems like this was mostly petition-related because they were being paid per-petition and rates had skyrocketed due to the # of initiatives. So it's not really the same, and not as interesting.

-

HOWEVER, if you want to talk about this, make another thread. This isn't a fraud megathread. It's specifically about North Carolina / NC-09. I will split off conversations about this if they balloon in size. Whatboutism isn't relevant to this thread.

Exactly.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1070431251729932294