2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/AnthonySabatini/status/1397970002247102465

So I guess they think the state Supreme Court will COMPLETELY disregard the Fair Districts Amendment. Unnecessarily splitting counties (no reason to split Seminole county other than to help Republicans) would go completely against that.

[Mr.Phips]

Republicans currently hold just short of 80 seats in the Florida House.  During Jeb Bush's governorship (in his second term), they had at times upwards of an 85-seat majority, at least until 2006.  After redistricting is over and done with, how likely is it that we are going to see those majorities again this decade?

Seems like Rs win basically every marginal state HD and SD down ballot in Florida and generally have massive over performances on the Pres level, especially since Dems locally tend to be pretty packed. It would not surprise me.

The differences between now and the Jeb Bush years is Dem strength in the Orlando area, which necessitates ceding more districts to Dems there now than in earlier years.  I’d say Republicans are currently pretty close to their ceiling in the Florida House.  

[Mr.Phips]

Here is the actual law that I thought I would put up that constrains a Pubmander.

The issue is that these types of laws are pretty vague. What is “compact” at what point does a given map “favor” one political party over another. The GOP controlled state SC prolly has a pretty loose interpretation of this law and therefore it’s more idealistic. Now if there was a specific thing that said the district borders must be at most % of the area or only X counties can be split, then we’d been having a different discussion. But things that say general “muh compact” “muh fair” won’t prevent anything

As I have said many times before, I have more faith in the courts than that, even partisan courts. I think that for an obviously partisan reason, a map makes additional county chops, or significant city chops, or makes a map significantly more erose, is very vulnerable to being struck down under the Florida law. For example, if FL-14 is going to cross the bay , it had better take in the entirety of St. Petersburg, and eliminate a county chop elsewhere or greatly mitigate it, or make some CD materially more compact. A line change that benefits the Pubs, while also adding some other negative factor as described above, has no talking points to go to the court with. The Pub case in such event has no clothes, and the court is quite unlikely to ignore that fact the way the emperor's subjects did when the he was in his birthday suit. I am not changing my mind of this one. Color me obtuse or stubborn if you must. I won't mind too much.


That said, I Pubbed up Tim's TX-13 by a grand total of 30 basis points. My talking point? Keep the cities united! I lost a muni chop, and even though the erosity is a tad greater, that is a damn good talking point - in fact it should be a winner! Aren't I wonderful?  

A masochist can go through Tim's map with a fine tooth comb, and try to find other ways to Pub it up, that have similar talking points available. But it won't be FL-13. I tried and it was a fail. No talking points to do something more major were there to be had, unless of course I just lack the perspicacity to discern it, but I don't think so in this case. If I had found an avenue, I would have shared it. Of course!

You think redrawing FL-07 to just connect Seminole to a chunk of Volusia (rather than Orange) would be vulnerable to litigation?

[Mr.Phips]

Do wwe think 19-9 or 20-8 is most likely? I would probably draw a 19-9 if I was Rs, shore up FL 26, 27 and make the new 18th red while eliminating Crist and one of Demings/Murphy. Maybe make 5 a Duval only Democratic pack.

I’d think 19-9.  Getting rid of FL-05 is probably a bridge too far even for the DeSantis court. 

[Mr.Phips]

So we're probably looking at a map that's less fair than the Senate one but nothing like the De Santis one. Something like the House map that nukes Murphy?

I’m guessing basically the DeSantis map but with FL-05 staying intact.  That’s what I expected all along.

[Mr.Phips]

I expect FL-5 to remain intact. Even if it's not required, the state's fair districts law would basically require a Democratic Duval County vote sink, so not even sure how much changes.

Maybe keep FL-05 intact but more aggressively pack the Tampa/St Pete area into just one Dem district and turn FL-07 into a Trump district (one of the House maps did this).

[Mr.Phips]

I think its really lazy to say the only point is for MAGA Chad's or laser eyes. The point now is DeSantis wants more seats so that he can run for president and come in with a R house majority .

Interesting, so the Tallahassee district would flip easily (and I assume isn’t trend left very hard) and the two Jacksonville districts wouldn’t be dummy-manders for at least several years?

Agreed, plus he can’t really be that stupid to think he’s winning over any substantial number of voters with the laser eyeing. The majority of GOP primary voters have no idea what redistricting even does, much less be willing to vote on it 3 years later lol
 

https://www.breitbart.com/midterm-election/2022/02/11/florida-legislature-block-desantis-redistricted-map-proposes-inferior-map/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Breitbart commenters are definetely a bit favorable but overall this is quite behind all the media. Most GOP primary voters care more about the regular policy

Overall the Tallahasee seat is quite weird. It voted D in 2014 of all years and does have ancestral D leanings. The Dem state senator for the district covering it got 70% of the vote in a Biden +6 district but the one in 2020 did the same as Biden. Overall on an average seat for the decade level, DeSantis's map is worth it.

However IMO cutting a black seat is risky. If you don't have FL-05 it gets easier for Democrats to try to pass a true independent commision with more uniform black support. If say 25-30% of  D leaning minorites oppose independent redistricting it gets a decent bit harder to pass any such reform.

Yeah even Lawson opposed the Fair Districts Amendment.  If his seat is dismantled, you can bet that he will help any effort to pass an actual independent commission. 

[Mr.Phips]

And there goes the house for the next 10 years.

This country is so ed

https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1514351540945002498

calm yourself.

The house was already rigged for the Republicans and as of a few weeks ago the maps were supposed to be remarkably close to even. With this map it’s back to what it’s always been - rigged for the Republicans. Dems would need to win the popular vote by 8 points to even have a half decent majority.

The country is majority Democrat and you’d never know it.

After this midterm Dems might not control either chamber of congress for literally 8 years at minimum.

Uh the median seat will prolly be like a point to the right of the nation. I’d say there’s a hood chance Dems control the house for 8 straight years.

Dems haven’t controlled the House for eight straight years in almost 35 years.  They need a Republican president’s midterm to win the House and would never be able to hold it in a Dem President’s midterm.

[Mr.Phips]

I always think that if Adam Putnam had won that primary in 2022 over DeSantis, he likely would have just signed the legislature’s map that kept FL-05, FL-07, and FL-13 (kept St Pete with lower Pinellas) as they were from 2016-2020 and we never would have gotten to this point.

Democrats (myself included) were thrilled that a clown like DeSantis won the primary and thought that even with Gillum we couldnt possibly lose to him.  In retrospect, we should have rooted for Putnam to win that primary. 

[Mr.Phips]

So I guess it's okay for New York judges to ignore the constitution too, right and allow democrats to gerrymander however they want, no? Because it literally says in the constitution you can't alter a minority district like FL-5 and they're putting their fingers in their ears and saying that doesn't matter.

Hopefully the NY judges are watching this as well as what just happened in NC.