Spanish elections and politics

[jaichind]

If after an national election a PSOE+C majority is possible but so is a PP+C+VOX what would be C's preference?  I assume what you guys are saying is it depends on if Sánchez is the PSOE PM candidate or someone else?

[Former President tack50]

If both were possible, I think Cs would go with PSOE+Cs, even if Sánchez remained as PM. They might not like it, but I don't think they will have enough strength to take him down.

In fact I wonder if both are possible if PNV would back PSOE+Cs as a "lesser of 2 evils" and/or if UPN (a Navarra unionist party) would back it, splitting from PP

I'd argue Sánchez's biggest threat to him losing power when he could remain would be an internal party coup. I guess that will depend on how the party does after the regional elections.

[Mike88]

Yeah, i agree that the 2019 May elections will be critical for Sanchéz permanence in power, but, UP's results may have a big influence now. Electomania, i know they are not a legit pollester, made a poll for the EU elections that shows PP very low, Vox well ahead of UP and PSOE and C's neck and neck.

Could the implosion of UP force Sanchéz to turn to the right in order to please C's voters/politicians and gain their support?

[jaichind]

But given C's position on Catalonia would not they prefer PP's hardline position?  Or will PSOE shift to a hardline position on Catalonia to get C onboard since given the assumed implosion of Podemos there will no longer be a need to care about Podemos's position on Catalonia?

[Oryxslayer]

But given C's position on Catalonia would not they prefer PP's hardline position?  Or will PSOE shift to a hardline position on Catalonia to get C onboard since given the assumed implosion of Podemos there will no longer be a need to care about Podemos's position on Catalonia?

I don't think PSOE would need to shift, hypothetical negotiations between C's and PSOE would feature some red-lines in that regard. PSOE wouldn't have to change, but their government would have to accept a anti-Catalonia and centralist position.

[Velasco]

I would challenge the notion that Pedro Sánchez is a radical leftist, or something. Albert Rivera is far from being a moderate, particularly in what regards the delicate territorial question. PSOE and Cs, with Sánchez and Rivera as leaders, already signed a deal in 2016. I won't say a similar deal is impossible in the near future, but the context (Venezuela crisis, Podemos implosion) favours the reactionary triple alliance.

[Velasco]

The trial versus the Catalan separatist leaders starts next week, on Tuesday 12. They are accused of serious offences such as rebellion, sedition and misuse of public funds. The trial will have a deep impact in Spanish politics and I'm afraid it's going to poison the already strained environment. To make things even worse, the far right will have a protagonic role. VOX secretary general Javier Ortega Smith will represent the private prosecution. It could be a formidable propagandistic weapon for the Spanish extreme reactionaries. The trial will have as well a huge emotional burden and it will affect the next moves of the Catalan nationalists, conditioned by the rivalry between ERC and the heirs of Convergència. The trial will highlight the role of ERC leader Oriol Junqueras at the expense of Carles Puigdemont. Junqueras is jailed and facing a harsh punishment, while Puigdemont lives comfortably at his Waterloo mansion in his self-enforced Belgian 'exile'.

In this context, the strategy of the Pedro Sánchez government to make a series of symbolic gestures in order to favour dialogue may end in failure if the Catalan separatist parties reject the budget plan. This would lead inevitably to elections (either in May or in autumn) and pave the way to a right wing majority promising to implement a tough policy in Catalonia. The following is worth reading

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/02/05/inenglish/1549354707_947579.html

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[Velasco]

Spanish government breaks talks with Catalan separatists

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/02/08/inenglish/1549635276_414422.html

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[Mike88]

Mass rally against Sanchéz and for the calling of fresh elections in Madrid, today:


General view of the protest in Madrid.

The number of people in the rally is disputed. The government says 45,000, while organizers say 200,000. Looking at the pictures, i would say something in the middle. The rally was called by PP and C's after Sanchéz deal with the Catalans, that only lasted 3 days. Vox also was present in the rally.

What's the chance of general elections being held in May? Things look quite grim for Sanchéz.

[Former President tack50]

Yes, they look very grim. The final nail in the coffin will happen this Wednesday, when the budget is rejected by Congress.

After that who knows. Sánchez might try to simply rule by decrees, there's no alternative majority to oust him. However his rule by decree would become very unpopular very fast I think.

On the other hand elections in May are also a bad option and most PSOE figures reject them in order not to contaminate local elections with national ones. However it might also increase turnout.

In any case, there will be an election this year, the question is if it will happen in May on a "Mega Sunday", or after the Summer. (or less likely in another date, like say June or April)

[Mike88]

So, it seems Sanchéz is completely trapped right now. Governing by decree in a parliamentary system is impossible, unless you are a caretaker. And elections, according to all indications, will be nightmare for PSOE. Quite a very difficult situation Spain is in right now.  

Like you said, elections are inevitable. Either it's a "Super Sunday" on May, or, it could be possible, an "Iberian Sunday" with general election in Spain and Portugal on October 6.

[Former President tack50]

Keep in mind that Sánchez has already been ruling by decree for the most part, his government has been extremely ineffective.

The Spanish government does have the right to unilaterally pass decrees, though they must go to Congress after 1 month at most to be accepted or retracted.

And Congress forcing decree retragting is extremely rare. Since 1977 it has happened only 4 times (though 2 have been on this parliamentary term alone).

It would be unpopular, sets a bad precedent and might offer legal challenges, but rule by decree is an option. It's not like the opposition could pass a no confidence vote either (PP+Cs are short by 7; they could get CC's lonely MP, but they still need 6 more and there are no more real viable partners)

I do think Sánchez will eventually call an election for October at the latest, but that's still 8 months from now.

And the election won't be necesarily bad for PSOE itself, they are looking at being the largest party (narrowly) and rising slightly above their dysmal 2016 results. The problem is for the left at large, and especially for Podemos.  A PP-Cs-Vox majority looks almost certain, and even if it didn't add up the most likely result would be a repeat election, not another minority Sánchez government.

[Velasco]

I think there is some consensus on the right wing demonstration that took place in Madrid yesterday. It's been a failure or an underperformance for the reactionary tripartite. In the picture below you can spot Vox leader Santiago Abascal (bearded man 3rd from the left), Javier Maroto (a gay member of PP standing besides a homophobe), PP leader Pablo Casado and Cs leader Albert Rivera (right)

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/02/11/inenglish/1549869663_014812.html

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BBC News: "Madrid mass protest over talks policy"

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-47190135


In my opinion Pablo Casado has reached intolerable levels of rhetoric agresiveness, launching a lot of fallacious arguments (for instance PP leader claims that Pedro Sánchez accepted the 21 demands of a letter the Catalan premier sent to him, which is false). Casado appeals to the lowest instincts and shows a reckless disregard of truth in a desperate attempt to contain the losses to Vox. The far right party is conditioning the PP discourse and setting the agenda. This is not a good thing for the conservatives, neither for the country. Among the many insults and hyperboles, I have read "stab in the back". If you are familiar to German history (a hundred years ago), you'll now what I'm talking about. The Spanish Right is reactionary. On the ither hand, it's remarkable that Albert Rivera is in the same picture as Santiago Abascal; the equivalent of Macron and Le Pen attending the same demonstration in Paris.  There is a reason why Rivera has no issue with that anymore: Venezuela.  I think Cs leader can no longer sustain that he is a moderate centrist.

The situation of the Pedro Sánchez government is dire. Even though Sánchez saved the day and is still alive (maybe his "Survival Handbook" explains how), he might be tempted to call elections in May, putting all eggs in one basket. The ball is in the court of Catalan separatist parties. Passing the buget means some economic relief and much needed investments in Catalonia. Voting against could be paving the way for the right wing parties and their iron pills: indefinite suspension of regional autonomy and implementation of a state of emergency in Catalonia (probably unconstitutional measures). The trial of the Catalan separatist leaders is around the corner and this makes things terribly complicated. Spanish labyrinth, more than ever

[Former President tack50]

Speaking of elections, PM Sánchez has threatened the secessionists with a snap election for the 14th of April if they refuse to pass his budget.

If he were to call it, he would call it some time next week (by law there have to be 54 days between an election being called and the actual election date).

I don't think the secessionists will cave, so let's see if the threat actually materializes or not. There's also the possibility of a Super Sunday but the PSOE leadership doesn't want that.

https://www.elmundo.es/espana/2019/02/11/5c615eeefdddffd78c8b45de.html

[Former President tack50]

The trial against the Catalan politicians in prison has begun today.

The Corporació Catalana de Mitjans Audiovisuals (CCMA); the regional government owned TV and Radio broadcaster in Catalonia, has released a very interesting guide to the trial in English, detailing who exactly are the accused, the accusation, the judges and the prosecutors; what the accusations are; how the trial will proceed and how we got here in the first place

https://www.ccma.cat/324/keys-catalan-independence-trial/

This is an extremely valuable resource, even if the information is probably biased. CCMA/TV3 is owned by the Catalan government and has been repeatedly accused of misinformation and manipulation of facts.