Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

To win the Republicans need to not just flip some of those downstate counties.  They also need to substantially cut down their deficits in Fairfax and Loudoun. 

I don't think they have much shot at cutting down the margins in Alexandria or Arlington and the turnout in both will be high.  Probably won't cut much in Prince William either.  I think they would need to get the Fairfax margin under 30 and the Loudoun margin under 20.  I don't think either will happen with the second rate candidates they have.

I dont see any of the trends in Virginia reversing. At most the Republicans lose by 6-8 but I dont see it being any closer than that.

You'd be correct.  the only hope Republicans have is that Democrats push too far on "socialism" and raise taxes, etc.  But the Virginia Democratic Party seems to be messaging perfectly.  They haven't raised taxes and they are set to nominate Terry, a moderate who is liberal on social issues but fiscally responsible - a perfect fit for NOVA.  As long as democrats keep a tight grip on growing NOVA counties they should be fine, the math doesn't work for Republicans. 

Democrats nationally, and especially in states like Georgia, Texas, Arizona, and Florida should look at how the Virginia democrats have done things.  They have completely rammed through their agenda on social issues, the court, and race relations while being just moderate enough to avoid attacks.  They've completely neutered the Virginia GOP to the point where they are irrelevant to state politics at the local level.

Oh god no. Please don't spread social liberalism and fiscal moderation everywhere...

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

McAuliffe will go down as a perfect example of how to run a really terrible campaign.

Maybe? But it sure seems like "running a terrible campaign" coincides often with "running in an environment unfavorable to your party." Mainly because it looks like nothing you are doing is sticking or making a difference, but perhaps that's because it's beyond your control and you have to keep trying different things.

This isn't something I'm deciding new in 2021 - I first felt this way in 2014.

True. I'm not denying that Biden's unpopularity will have undoubtedly played some part in it if McAuliffe loses, but losing in a state won by your parties' presidential nominee by ten points a year ago takes at least a fairly sloppy campaign.

Plus, I think most can agree that the McAuliffe campaign HAS been pretty bad.

Biden’s approval in VA is negative in most polls. Terry’s campaign is alright - the problem is we have an unpopular President who isn’t course correcting at all.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Worst campaign ever
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1455167994397593604?s=20

He keeps repeating that lie about children with covid. Even the Daily Beast calls him out on it.

What a sleazy dbag. He uses false statistics to justify first amendment violations.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

McAuliffe will go down as a perfect example of how to run a really terrible campaign.

Maybe? But it sure seems like "running a terrible campaign" coincides often with "running in an environment unfavorable to your party." Mainly because it looks like nothing you are doing is sticking or making a difference, but perhaps that's because it's beyond your control and you have to keep trying different things.

This isn't something I'm deciding new in 2021 - I first felt this way in 2014.

True. I'm not denying that Biden's unpopularity will have undoubtedly played some part in it if McAuliffe loses, but losing in a state won by your parties' presidential nominee by ten points a year ago takes at least a fairly sloppy campaign.

Plus, I think most can agree that the McAuliffe campaign HAS been pretty bad.

Biden’s approval in VA is negative in most polls. Terry’s campaign is alright - the problem is we have an unpopular President who isn’t course correcting at all

How in the world is Biden is suppose to be course correcting because It would be 1 thing if everything was going south right now, but in Biden case this here is the reality

Covid cases have massively declined and unemployment is 4.8 percent and dropping

Can you imagine if Obama and the Dems had news like this before heading into the 2010 midterms. He or any other president would have been hailed as a hero right about now. heck if you had told me in 2020 that that Biden would be unpopular with unemployment at 4 percemt I would have not believed you yet here we are....

I just think that Biden more so than any other president I can think of is being hurt at a time when almost everything around him is going to in the right direction. Even trump low numbers during a decent economy still made more sense to me because his many controversies were overshadowing all of the positive news about the economy, but in Biden case he is not even doing crazy stuff like that so that make his low number even more baffling

Unfortunately, I think the social media is playing a big role here and there is nothing Biden can really do about it ​beacue no matter how good things get Facebook will still convince a lot of people that the things are worse than they were during the great recession. Sadly, I think that even if inflation went down tomorrow a lot people still would not believe it because some idiot on Facebook would convince them that it just hit record highs

Because he's doing a f**king terrible job so far? Inflation is out of control (people say it's "transitory", but historically inflation usually takes a few years to kick in after printing a ton of money), the border is a complete mess, supply chain crisis, royally screwed up Afghanistan, has no plan for when COVID restrictions should end, is uniformally liberal despite campaigning as a moderate. He's done a horrible job with the reconciliation bill so far too - why not just focus on doing 1-2 things well as opposed to doing 5+ things poorly? Just seems like a pork-ridden package to democratic interest groups now.

If you guys stop b**ching about "social media misinformation" and actually start doing the work, maybe just maybe Joe Biden would be popular? Like f***, I'm so tired of hearing people make excuses for Biden. I voted for him and expect far better than you guys. My vote isn't free; you have to earn it.  

Now, again, I'm expecting T-Mac to win fairly comfortably (by about 4%), but if Youngkin wins, the democrats need to stop b**ching and start getting to work. Talk to people who don't always agree with you. Implement solutions to the problems they talk about. Focus better on a couple of issues rather than attempting to do a million different things poorly. Joe Biden winning was more of people being concerned about COVID and Trump being unpopular; it's not a showing of huge, widespread support of every aspect of the liberal democrat agenda.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Hearing rumors that Youngkin has been spotted on a park bench in Loudon county crying with his hands covering his face

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

It’ll be embarrassing for NSV if Youngkin wins after hours of NSV ejaculating all over the place over limited turnout reports

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Just a reminder to not take the following seriously:
1) Incomplete turnout reports of only a select few counties
2) Exit polls

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I see the Atlas pendulum has begun to swing once again.

No, not Atlas, but there were 3-4 turnout experts, kinda claiming Safe D.

I'm just going to quote my post again:

It’ll be embarrassing for NSV if Youngkin wins after hours of NSV ejaculating all over the place over limited turnout reports

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I would like to remind everyone that exit polls aren't always reliable. If these are the truth though then yes things would be looking pretty good for Youngkin.

They're not reliable at all. A random Atlas user could probably make up a more accurate exit poll.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Wat

Yeah I question the validity of these early exits strongly

Also recalled 2020 vote choice was 46-46 Trump-Biden

Ouch.
Yeah, bin it.

Told y'all. Maybe Youngkin has a big win, but either way don't pay attention to early exit polls.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

>Virginia youth turnout 9%
>Biden 43% approval
>Top issues of Virginia voters: Economy, Jobs

Wins or losses tonight Biden needs to sound the alarm to everyone in the admin. to get their sh*t together, now. Some executive orders as well.

What do you suggest he should order?
Some of his orders are at least partly to blame for his poor ratings.

He takes marijuana, Medicare, and student debt into his own hands, the midterms are a blue wave. Nevermind if he gets the guts to work around the Manchin/Sinema debacle.

Student loan debt relief would absolutely backfire if it was anything more than 5,000. You've talked to way too many college graduate dems if you think that'll actually appeal to the average 65+ swing voter.

Student loan debt relief was always one of the worst of this new wave of dem's proposals. Also, dems literally legalized marijuana in Virginia.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I predict that if Mcauliffe loses, Democrats will learn exactly 0 lessons about the types of candidates they run in these elections. No one—and I mean no one—should be losing a gubernatorial race in a state where the Presidential candidate from their party won by 10% less than a year ago.

I mean if this is an R sweep, it's not really T-Mac's fault; it would be the fault of the entire national environment. I always find it hilarious when people come up with the post-election narrative/spin before the election has even happened.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Where is the best place to look at election coverage for this?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Where is the best place to look at election coverage for this?

Why right here!

The call is coming from inside the house.  

Okay PQG, can you provide me a constantly updating county map in an aesthetically pleasing format?

I don't think so. I mean in the vein of NYT/DDHQ

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

In summary, Youngkin ran an excellent campaign while McAuliffe ran an awful one. Dems cannot control the narrative for the life of them... BTW I fully believe if the Dem party in Loudoun had their sh**t together TMAC would have won bc this CRT/anti-trans narrative wouldn't have spun out of control...

If this was just about campaign quality, then why are downballot R's doing close to as well as Youngkin?

Hint: It's because the entire democratic party and Joe Biden is unpopular because of inflation, Afghanistan, COVID, not getting anything done in Washington, and generally extreme social stances.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Democrats lost because the country is sick of covid restrictions, inflation and rising gas prices.

Virginia has no covid restrictions and last time I checked, "the country" is not voting in Virginia.

Are you telling me there's absolutely 0 COVID restrictions in VA? No mask mandates in schools, no vaccine requirements for people otherwise they get fired, etc? That's a bold claim to make.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I think the uncomfortable truth here is that part of this is Suburban whitelash after this past year of new conversations about race, not just CRT. That one issue just happens to encapsulate it.

I don't think Suburbanites are as reliable for Democrats as they may think. They are still okay with racism as long as it's in pretty packaging with respectable language.

Ah yes, already blaming election losses on racism. Classic dems. Never going to actually self-reflect as to why people don't support them! It's not like I've been telling you guys for the past month!

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

In the end it just goes to show you that voters will find any reason to throw a party out of power lol

This sentence seems to suggest that TMac (quite possibly) losing is the voters’ *fault* instead of the voters’ *choice*

Peak Atlas Democrat brain, y’all

I know this is an old comment but I feel need to respond to it

My final post on election night was not about blaming voters for not picking TMac It was about making a larger statement about how our current political environment works

Bill Clinton famous statement about it being all about the economy, stupid is increasingly no longer relevant today because voters do not reward politicians anymore for a good economy like they did in the past. They also don't punish politicians for a bad economy like they use to because Obama won in 2012 despite the economy still not being great and Trump almost won in 2020 despite the country being in a recession.

looking at this race objectively had this been the 1980s, 1990s or even the early 2000 terry mcauliffe would have won the election just based on low unemployment numbers alone but because of the increasing partisanship, it is hard for either party these days to really benefit from a decent economy or low unemployment numbers

Now in farness I have heard some suggest that inflation is the reason for mcauliffe loss, but to frank with you I'm not convinced that terry mcauliffe would have won this election, even with low inflation because ultimately this race was not really about the economy

it was about this....

48% of voters chose taxes and the economy as their most important issue.



For those who chose the "culture war" issue of Education, 44% still voted for McAuliffe.

This poll basically just proves my main point

Terry McAuliffe is losing to Glenn Youngkin on the economy and jobs at a time when Virginia is actually doing even better than the country as a whole and unemployment is at 3.8 percent

Again had this been the 80s 90s or even the 2000s there is no chance that Glenn Youngkin would be beating McAuliffe on that issue when the economy was doing that well. The fact is Terry McAuliffe and Dems literally got no credit for the great economy in virigina would scare the heck out me if were the Dems heading into the 2022 midterms

These results suggest to me that voters may not reward the Dems even if the economy is doing well in 2022 or even if the Dems do pass popular bills like infrastructure.

The economy isn’t good, dude. Unemployment isn’t the only factor in an economy. Inflation is still pretty high. Inflation is one of the worst death sentences for a party in power, especially because it hurts the working class the most.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I totally agree with the fear of a constitutional crisis. In many ways I always liked Senator Sinema and Senator Manchin for the longest time, but to be honest unless things take an unbelievable turn of events … they are going to go down in history as having been running the who stood in the way of preventative measures that would’ve made such constitutional crisis impossible if not unlikely.

I’m not sure how they are going to live with themselves

There isn’t going to be a “constitutional” crisis if Republicans win. Rhetoric like this is a part of the reason why I switched my support from dem to repub, albeit a small one.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Should the gop be concerned that Buchanan county actually trended blue compared to 2020 election?

Yes, in 50 years Buchanan county will have the population the size of Maryland and vote 90-10 democratic. Republicans in Virginia are ignoring Buchanan county at their own peril.