European Elections 2009 (France)

[Hash]

The numbers for the other parties are UMP 25.5% and MoDem 14%.

Another IFOP poll from early January with a divided left front goes NPA 10%, PCF-PG 5.5%, LO 3.5%. PS would be at 19.5%, UMP at 25.5%, and the MoDem at 14.5%.

On a side note, here is the likely distribution of seats. France has lost 6 MEPs since 2004.

Île-de-France: 13 (-1)
Sud-Est: 13 (=)
Nord-Ouest: 10 (-2)
Sud-Ouest: 10 (=)
Ouest: 9 (-1)
Est: 9 (-1)
Massif central-Centre: 5 (-1)
Outre-Mer: 3 (=)

[PGSable]

IFOP seems to have forgotten that the French far-left is led by a bunch of individualistic egomaniacs. They published a poll hypothesizing over a common leftie list (Trots, PCF, and the PG). That list, which will never happen in my lifetime probably, would win 14.5%. The PS would win 22.5% and the Greenies only 7%. The article on LeMonde.fr doesn't talk about the numbers for the UMP, MPF, FN, or MoDem.

Edit: It's an internal poll for the PG, which is still delusional enough to think that a common left front is possible. Lol lefties. Take with a grain of salt.

That's definitely impossible, though I think the PCF and PG are likely to run a common list. What about the LO and NPA? Will they run together again?

[Hash]

IFOP seems to have forgotten that the French far-left is led by a bunch of individualistic egomaniacs. They published a poll hypothesizing over a common leftie list (Trots, PCF, and the PG). That list, which will never happen in my lifetime probably, would win 14.5%. The PS would win 22.5% and the Greenies only 7%. The article on LeMonde.fr doesn't talk about the numbers for the UMP, MPF, FN, or MoDem.

Edit: It's an internal poll for the PG, which is still delusional enough to think that a common left front is possible. Lol lefties. Take with a grain of salt.

That's definitely impossible, though I think the PCF and PG are likely to run a common list. What about the LO and NPA? Will they run together again?

The PCF and PG are definitely running together (I think they already agreed on that). The PG would be committing an early political suicide by running alone.

I don't know what's the deal with the Trots, but I don't think they'll be running together this time. Besancenot seems opposed to any alliance with anybody.

[PGSable]

I don't know what's the deal with the Trots, but I don't think they'll be running together this time. Besancenot seems opposed to any alliance with anybody.

I thought the whole point of fouding the NPA was to try to federate the far left around him.

[MaxQue]

I don't know what's the deal with the Trots, but I don't think they'll be running together this time. Besancenot seems opposed to any alliance with anybody.

I thought the whole point of fouding the NPA was to try to federate the far left around him.

Federate equals everybody become members of NPA.

[big bad fab]

I don't know what's the deal with the Trots, but I don't think they'll be running together this time. Besancenot seems opposed to any alliance with anybody.

I thought the whole point of fouding the NPA was to try to federate the far left around him.

Founding the NPA was meant to crush every other far-left party and to assess if the party can be as successful as Besancenot alone.

For the moment, it is even uncertain whether the PCF will agree to make a common list with the PG. So, don't even talk about LO-LCR(NPA)...

[Hash]

The MoDem nominated its top candidates today:

Sud-Est: Jean-Luc Bennahmias, former Greenie / Fabienne Faure
Nord-Ouest: Corinne Lepage, leader of CAP21 greenies / Olivier Henno, MoDem mayor of Saint-André-lez-Lille
Île-de-France: Marielle de Sarnez / Bernard Lehideux
Ouest: Sylvie Goulard, leader of Mouvement européen France (a federalist thing) / Bruno Joncour, MoDem mayor of Saint-Brieuc
Sud-Ouest: Robert Rochefort, secretary general of CREDOC, Anne Laperrouze
Est: Jean-François Kahn, former editor of Marianne and writer / Nathalie Griesbeck
Massif central-Centre: Jean-Marie Beaupuy /  Cherifa Adaissi, former local councillor thingee in Blois (rofl)

Incumbent MEPs are bolded.

These will be confirmed in a vote by the membership on Friday.

[Hash]

NDA's DLR nominated its top candidates recently. Not much use in posting them, as it's a bunch of no names who will get humiliated anyways. Noteworthy, however, that NDA is the number 2 on the DLR list in IdF. The number 2 in the Ouest constituency is a MRC member.

On a totally unrelated topic, a note about the Outre-mer seat, possibly the most inane of the 8 constituencies. It is a three-seater that encompasses all of France's overseas territories, from Reunion to the atoll of Clipperton to the frigid Kerguelen Islands. In 2004, around one-third of the constituency's voters were concentrated in la Reunion, and around 45% of the votes actually cast (needless to say, the turnout in the seat was by far the lowest, at 28%) were from la Reunion. Therefore, la Reunion holds an important role in the constituency. The 2004 results illustrate this well:

Reunion: PCR 38.23, PS 26.02, UMP 23.43, UDF 4.24, Greenies 2.62. t/o 39.35
Martinique: UDF 37.75, PCR 33.30, UMP 7.79, PS 7.66, LO-LCR 7.11, Greenies 2.82. t/o 17.95
Guadeloupe: Greenies 47.47, PCR 18.52, UMP 15.08, PS 6.48, UDF 5.62. t/o 15.49
Guyane: Greenies 31.64, UMP 26.64, PS 12.86, PCR 11.67, UDF 5.6, FN 4.98. t/o 14.31
Mayotte: UMP 32, PCR 21.63, UDF 17.14, PS 15.97, FN 3.91, Greenies 3.27. t/o 26.51
New Caledonia: UMP 33.94, PS 17.22, UDF 14.9, FN 14.79, Greenies 7.88, (PCR 3.23, behind RPF). t/o 25.42
Polynesia: UMP 43.84, PCR 25.42, PS 16.8, UDF 7.52, Greenies 3.10. t/o 39.83
Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon: Greenies 29.50, UMP 21.40, PS 19.23, UDF 11, FN 7.86, PCR 5.93. t/o 18.25
Wallis et Futuna: PS 41.53, UMP 34.22, UDF 15.35, FN 2.39, (PCR 1.74, behind LO-LCR). t/o 43.07
Total: PCR 28.87 (1 MEP, Paul Verges), UMP 25.32 (1 MEP, Margie Sudre), PS 19.05 (1 MEP, Jean-Claude Fruteau), UDF 10.44, Greenies 8.63, FN 2.84. t/o 27.77

All 3 MEPs are from Reunion. In the wake of this inequality, the National Assembly passed a law (I think, though I haven't been able to find the text on their website) dividing the constituency into 3 sub-constituencies (lulz) or 'sections'. The 3 sections are Pacific (Polynesia, New Caledonia etc), Indian (Reunion), Atlantic (the 3 DOMs+SPM). If I read correctly, each party nominates one top candidate for each section (which are single-seaters now, adding up to 3 seats overall). I believe that these sub-constituencies are now pure FPTP seats. I'm not sure if a party, like the various local nats, will be able to run in only one section.

I might be wrong, as I haven't been able to find reliable info on this situation. Needless to say, if anyone has more stuff on this, I'd love to hear it.

[Verily]

Why are the Greens so strong in the American departments (except Martinique)?

[Hash]

Why are the Greens so strong in the American departments (except Martinique)?

One-election favourite son vote coupled with uber-low turnout (you know what that creates). The Green top candidate was Harry Durimel, a well-known Green politician from Guadeloupe. His number two was a well-known Greenie from Guyane who had led a Greenie list in the March regionals there.

(though there seems to be some real Greenie strength in parts of Guadeloupe and Guyane (mostly in the Amazon) coming out once in a while.)

[Hash]

Est: J. Daul

Internal battles in the UMP over Daul's choice of the second name on the list, Véronique Mathieu, incumbent MEP and national secretary of the Radical Party. She is a former general secretary of CPNT. A number of important UMP figures from the Est have signed a petition condemning Daul's imposition of Mathieu on his list and asking for a "renewal of political figures". Among the signatories, Jean-Pierre Soisson, an eternal example for morality in politics, but also Henri de Raincourt, leader of the UMP in the Senate and Alain Marty, MP and President of the Moselle fed of the UMP.


On a related note, here is the attendance records of the French MEPs according to L'Express in 2008.

1.
Gérard Onesta (Greenies) 100%
Martine Roure (PS)
Margie Sudre (UMP)
Yannick Vaugrenard (PS)
Christine de Veyrac (UMP)

I may disagree with their politics, but they deserve FF status for well representing their constituents and showing up to work. Kudos to all 5.

6.
Marie-Hélène Descamps (UMP) 98.44%
Janelly Fourtou (centrist)
Jean-Paul Gauzès (UMP)
Françoise Grossetête (UMP)

10.
Bernadette Vergnaud (PS) 96.88%

11.
Catherine Guy-Quint (PS) 95.31%
Carl Lang (FN)

13.
Françoise Castex (PS) 93.75%
Jean-Louis Cottigny (PS)
Véronique Mathieu (UMP)
Pierre Pribetich (PS)

17.
Joseph Daul (UMP) 92.19%
Anne Ferreira (PS)
Ambroise Guellec (UMP)
Roselyne Lefrançois (PS)
Philippe Morillon (MoDem)

22.
Tokia Saïfi (UMP) 90.63%

23.
Jean-Pierre Audy (UMP) 89.06%
Pervenche Bères (PS)
Bernadette Bourzaï (PS)
Henri Weber (PS)

27.
Marie-Hélène Aubert (Greenies) 87.50%
Nicole Fontaine (UMP)
Patrick Louis (MPF)
Elisabeth Morin (UMP)
Catherine Trautmann (PS)

32.
Kader Arif (PS) 85.94%
Anne Laperrouze (MoDem)

34.
Jean-Marie Beaupuy (Modem) 84.38%
Stéphane Le Foll (PS)
Marielle de Sarnez (Modem)
Francis Wurtz (PCF)

38.
Harlem Désir (PS) 82.81%
Brigitte Douay (PS)
Patrick Gaubert (UMP)
Bernard Lehideux (MoDem)
Ari Vatanen (UMP)

43.
Benoit Hamon (PS) 81.25%
Lydia Schénardi (FN)

45.
Claire Gibault (centrist) 79.69%
Nathalie Griesbeck (MoDem)

47.
Guy Bono (PS) 78.13%
Bruno Gollnisch (FN)
Alain Lamassoure (UMP)
Marie Noëlle Lienemann (PS)
Jean-Claude Martinez (FN)

52.
Brigitte Fouré* (NC) 77.14%

53.
Jean-Marie Le Pen (FN) 76.56%
Fernand Le Rachinel (FN)
Catherine Neris* (PS)
Vincent Peillon (PS)

57.
Jean-Luc Bennahmias (MoDem) 75%
Hélène Flautre (Greenies)
Alain Lipietz (Greenies)

60.
André Laignel (PS) 73.44%
Jacques Toubon (UMP)
Dominique Vlasto (UMP)

63.
Marie-Arlette Carlotti (PS) 71.88%
Béatrice Patrie (PS)

65.
Jacky Hénin (PCF) 70.31%
Marie-Anne Isler Beguin (Verts)
Bernard Poignant (PS)
Pierre Schapira (PS)

69.
Madeleine Jouye de Grand Maison* (RDM)** 65.22%

70.
Catherine Boursier* (PS) 63.64%

71.
Thierry Cornillet (MoDem) 59.38%
Michel Rocard (PS)

73.
Jean-Marie Cavada (centrist) 57.81%
Gilles Savary (PS)

75.
Paul-Marie Coûteaux (RIF) 56.25%

76.
Robert Navarro (PS) 54.69%

77.
Marine Le Pen (FN) 50%
Philippe de Villiers (MPF)

lol at the two last airheads on there.

* MEPs replacing another MEP since 2004.
** RDM: Democratic Rally of Martinique. Madeleine Jouye de Grandmaison replaced Paul Vergès (PCR) in 2007.
*** RIF: Rally for the Independence of France: One-man show by Paul-Marie Coûteaux, who was elected on the MPF list in IdF in 2004.

[Hash]

Lots of news! CPNT has decided that it will not run independent lists, instead it will run common lists with the MPF. These MPF-CPNT lists are under the banner of the new European political party, Libertas. In 2004, both parties combined won 8.4% (6.67% for the MPF, 1.73% for CPNT).  Frédéric Nihous will lead the MPF-CPNT in the North-West, and Jean Saint-Josse in the South-West.

IFOP has just released a new poll, which is their second poll since November 2008, not counting that poll the PG commissioned for their wet dream. The change is compared to November 2008, but the UMP change is compared to the total UMP+NC polled separately, and the MPF-CPNT change is compared to the the total MPF+CPNT polled separately.

UMP 26% (+2)
PS 23% (+1)
MoDem 14.5% (+2.5)
Greens 7% (-4)
NPA 9% (+1)
FN 6% (-1)
PCF-PG 4% (n/c)
LO 3% (-1)
Libertas (MPF-CPNT) 5% (-2)
DLR 2% (+1)
FNd 0.5% (+0.5) (only polled in NW and SW)

Demographic and political breakdowns are interesting.

Left-wingers and Trots break 46% PS, 17% NPA, 14% Greenie, 9% PCF, 6% LO. The LO breakdown is interesting, but to take with a grain of salt: 50% would vote for an LO list, 21% for the PS, 13% for the Greens, only 5% for the NPA and surprising 8% for Libertas. Not a lot of other interesting stuff there, except that 12% of Greenies vote MoDem.
Royal voters in April 2007 break 69 PS, 10 NPA, 9 Greenies.
Sarkozy voters in April 2007 break 62 UMP, 8 Libertas, 8 MoDem, 6 FN.
OUI voters in 2005 break heavily UMP: 41 UMP, 23 MoDem, 21 PS. NON voters in 2005 are more divided: 24 PS, 16 UMP, 14 NPA, 11 MoDem, 11 Libertas, 8 PCF.

The PS keeps 70% of its 2004 EU voters, with 10% voting NPA, 6% PCF, and 6% MoDem. The Greens keep only 59% of its 2004 voters, bleeding equally to the PS and the MoDem. The UMP keeps a full 84% of its 2004 voters, with 10% of those voting MoDem. Interestingly, only 54% of the UDF voters in 2004 plan on voting MoDem, with 34% going UMP.

Manual Workers (Ouvriers) go 23% PS, 19% NPA, 17% UMP, 16% FN.

On a final side note, the FN lists will be named Listes d'Entente Populaire Et Nationale, abbreviated LEPEN...

[Antonio the Sixth]

IFOP has just released a new poll, which is their second poll since November 2008, not counting that poll the PG commissioned for their wet dream. The change is compared to November 2008, but the UMP change is compared to the total UMP+NC polled separately, and the MPF-CPNT change is compared to the the total MPF+CPNT polled separately.

UMP 26% (+2)
PS 23% (+1)
MoDem 14.5% (+2.5)
Greens 7% (-4)
NPA 9% (+1)
FN 6% (-1)
PCF-PG 4% (n/c)
LO 3% (-1)
Libertas (MPF-CPNT) 5% (-2)
DLR 2% (+1)
FNd 0.5% (+0.5) (only polled in NW and SW)

That's no bad for PS, especially with the recent leadership crisis. I'm particularly happy of MoDem's good score : I think that Bayrou is for the moment the best opponent to Sarkozy. However, I'm worried by the success of NPA, who can durably damage the PS.

[Hash]

That's no bad for PS, especially with the recent leadership crisis.

Not bad? The PS should be doing much better when the government's approvals are roughly 40% and the President's approval are at, what, 36%?

The official opposition shouldn't be coming second in a mid-term election when the government has bad ratings.

I'm particularly happy of MoDem's good score : I think that Bayrou is for the moment the best opponent to Sarkozy.

lol

[Verily]

That's no bad for PS, especially with the recent leadership crisis.

Not bad? The PS should be doing much better when the government's approvals are roughly 40% and the President's approval are at, what, 36%?

The official opposition shouldn't be coming second in a mid-term election when the government has bad ratings.

I'm particularly happy of MoDem's good score : I think that Bayrou is for the moment the best opponent to Sarkozy.

lol

To be fair to the PS, the left-wing is highly fragmented by the nature of French politics. The PS may be running behind the UMP, but the combined left and far-left (PS+Verts+NPA+PCF+LO: 46%) is way ahead of the combined right and far-right (UMP+FN+Libertas: 37%). Since France uses a run-off system, those results in the first round of a Presidential election would IMO be highly encouraging to the PS and discouraging to the UMP.

[Antonio the Sixth]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

If you add MoDem, you have a 60,5% majority for Sarkozy's opponents. That's a great result.

[Hash]

That's no bad for PS, especially with the recent leadership crisis.

Not bad? The PS should be doing much better when the government's approvals are roughly 40% and the President's approval are at, what, 36%?

The official opposition shouldn't be coming second in a mid-term election when the government has bad ratings.

I'm particularly happy of MoDem's good score : I think that Bayrou is for the moment the best opponent to Sarkozy.

lol

To be fair to the PS, the left-wing is highly fragmented by the nature of French politics. The PS may be running behind the UMP, but the combined left and far-left (PS+Verts+NPA+PCF+LO: 46%) is way ahead of the combined right and far-right (UMP+FN+Libertas: 37%). Since France uses a run-off system, those results in the first round of a Presidential election would IMO be highly encouraging to the PS and discouraging to the UMP.

But of course. I wasn't arguing that this isn't a great result for the left, I was just arguing that 23% is quite a poor result for the PS.

We also need to remember that far-left voters are unreliable when it comes to transfers.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

If you add MoDem, you have a 60,5% majority for Sarkozy's opponents. That's a great result.

Going by that same formula, you need to add the FN and maybe even the MPF.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ps and MoDem have a lot in common, by opposing Sarkozy economical, immigration and security policies and proposing a more progressive system. Compared to U.S. politics, PS is the far-left wing of the Democratic Party, and MoDem the center-left.

[Hash]

Ps and MoDem have a lot in common, by opposing Sarkozy economical, immigration and security policies and proposing a more progressive system. Compared to U.S. politics, PS is the far-left wing of the Democratic Party, and MoDem the center-left.

Yes, I know. Your point being?

[Antonio the Sixth]

My point being : PS + MoDem > UMP.
You can also add Greens and PCF, who are PS traditional allies, and you have a strong anti-UMP coalition.

[Hash]

My point being : PS + MoDem > UMP.
You can also add Greens and PCF, who are PS traditional allies, and you have a strong anti-UMP coalition.

We already know that the combined opposition is numerically stronger than the government.

That's besides the point of this thread, anyhow.

On a side note, if the UMP is polling 26% and Sarkozy's personal approval is at 36%, then there must be voters that approve of the government voting for the MoDem or some other party. I don't really imagine FN and MPF voters massively approving of Sarkozy. Especially not the FN.

[Antonio the Sixth]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yes, as there are voters who approve Obama and who have voted for McCain ( 65% when Obama get 53% ).
It don't changes that it's a very good score for Sarkozy's opposition.

[Hash]

It don't changes that it's a very good score for Sarkozy's opposition.

Yes, we know. Can we stop saying the same thing over and over?

[Antonio the Sixth]

You said :

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I just wanted to correct this affirmation, who takes no acount of the french political system.

[Math]

You said :

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I just wanted to correct this affirmation, who takes no acount of the french political system.

Just remember how strong was the opposition in 2004 or 1999 and compare it to the outcomes of the next presidential elections.

If you consider this IFOP poll as a good sign for the opposition, it's a wonderful evidence of its total collapse.