European Elections 2009 (France)

[Antonio the Sixth]

I must add that you have missed all the debate in the right and the centre-right for a one-party right between 1981 and 2002.

Yes, there was a real difference between UDF and RPR. Moderates against rightists, atlanticists and europeans against gaullists and "souverainistes", social right against liberal right (this difference was between CDS-FD and PR-DL-RPR), "décentralisateurs" against "Jacobins",...

Yes, there was certainly many issues inside the right, but the fact is that these issues didn't have any importance in the political practical. Chirac government had no problem with "social" right deregulating the economy. The moderate conservative Balladur was challenged by Chirac, but running as a radical leftist ( ah, this Chirac ! ). In fact, UDF supported anything that the RPR did to keep safe its constituencies.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

.

Bayrou is anything but a demagogue. I don't agree with all of his ideas, but he has precise political views : moderate welfare state ( too moderate for the left, not enough for the UMP ), social liberalism, true ( not "positive" ) secularism, "gaullist" conception offrench political independence, refuse of abuses of power and injustices as the disgusting "affaire Tapie". These ideas are certainly more close to the PS than the UMP, but it remains a centrist position.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Bayrou is anything but a demagogue. I don't agree with all of his ideas, but he has precise political views : moderate welfare state ( too moderate for the left, not enough for the UMP ), social liberalism, true ( not "positive" ) secularism, "gaullist" conception offrench political independence, refuse of abuses of power and injustices as the disgusting "affaire Tapie". These ideas are certainly more close to the PS than the UMP, but it remains a centrist position.

I tend to agree with this, Bayrou is building himself a political line. In order to achieve a very personal ambition apparently but he's building himself a line, and which remains centrist. The point I would reproach him is he doesn't build this line on a clear system of value, he picks here or there things, and say "that's my line", it misses a clear coherence which goes in the sens that his movement his more nothing but personal.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Bayrou is anything but a demagogue. I don't agree with all of his ideas, but he has precise political views : moderate welfare state ( too moderate for the left, not enough for the UMP ), social liberalism, true ( not "positive" ) secularism, "gaullist" conception offrench political independence, refuse of abuses of power and injustices as the disgusting "affaire Tapie". These ideas are certainly more close to the PS than the UMP, but it remains a centrist position.

I tend to agree with this, Bayrou is building himself a political line. In order to achieve a very personal ambition apparently but he's building himself a line, and which remains centrist. The point I would reproach him is he doesn't build this line on a clear system of value, he picks here or there things, and say "that's my line", it misses a clear coherence which goes in the sens that his movement his more nothing but personal.

You could say the same about Blair or Clinton. They remain in my opinion better statesmen than Thatcher/Major and Reagan/Bush.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Bayrou is anything but a demagogue. I don't agree with all of his ideas, but he has precise political views : moderate welfare state ( too moderate for the left, not enough for the UMP ), social liberalism, true ( not "positive" ) secularism, "gaullist" conception offrench political independence, refuse of abuses of power and injustices as the disgusting "affaire Tapie". These ideas are certainly more close to the PS than the UMP, but it remains a centrist position.

I tend to agree with this, Bayrou is building himself a political line. In order to achieve a very personal ambition apparently but he's building himself a line, and which remains centrist. The point I would reproach him is he doesn't build this line on a clear system of value, he picks here or there things, and say "that's my line", it misses a clear coherence which goes in the sens that his movement his more nothing but personal.

You could say the same about Blair or Clinton. They remain in my opinion better statesmen than Thatcher/Major and Reagan/Bush.

Yes, what we call "triangulation" in French. The difference being that Blair and Clinton involved one of the 2 major parties of their country. Bayrou tries to build a party on his character.

[big bad fab]

I must add that you have missed all the debate in the right and the centre-right for a one-party right between 1981 and 2002.

Yes, there was a real difference between UDF and RPR. Moderates against rightists, atlanticists and europeans against gaullists and "souverainistes", social right against liberal right (this difference was between CDS-FD and PR-DL-RPR), "décentralisateurs" against "Jacobins",...

Yes, there was certainly many issues inside the right, but the fact is that these issues didn't have any importance in the political practical. Chirac government had no problem with "social" right deregulating the economy. The moderate conservative Balladur was challenged by Chirac, but running as a radical leftist ( ah, this Chirac ! ). In fact, UDF supported anything that the RPR did to keep safe its constituencies.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

.

Bayrou is anything but a demagogue. I don't agree with all of his ideas, but he has precise political views : moderate welfare state ( too moderate for the left, not enough for the UMP ), social liberalism, true ( not "positive" ) secularism, "gaullist" conception offrench political independence, refuse of abuses of power and injustices as the disgusting "affaire Tapie". These ideas are certainly more close to the PS than the UMP, but it remains a centrist position.

What is "moderate welfare state" ?
Bayrou isn't courageous enough to say that pensions will be slashed and that health system will be far less generous in the future: we can't follow another path (sure, the UMP and the PS don't say either, but Bayrou heralds himself as the "truth knight").

Raymond Barre told the truth in the late 1970s. Jacques Delors told a part of it in the 1980s. Alain Juppé tried to clean things up in the welfare state in 1995. All 3 were far more courageous than Bayrou... who was an absolute coward when he was Education minister (do you remember ?).

What is "social liberalism" ? Aren't Strauss-Kahn, Royal, Borloo, Barnier "social liberals" ? Bayrou isn't peculiar in this.

True secularism, I can understand, but is Bayrou peculiar in this ? Apart from Sarkozy personally (and maybe Kouchner but I'm not sure), who isn't a true secularist in France ?

"Gaullist" foreign policy is historically laughable from a centrist... But, what is more, it's just out of date. France was already cooperating with military structures inside NATO. Mitterrand and Chirac were far mor atlanticists than we were let to believe...
Bayrou wants to spend less... I don't know how he will be able to have a second aircraft-carrier, enough nuclear submarines, enough airlifters, enough assault helicopters, enough drones, enough militayr satellites, etc, in order to have a base for his "gaullist" foreign policy.
Ah, yes, military Europe. With an indebted Britain, a completely demilitarized Germany, an out-of-date Italian army. Apart from Bulgaria and Greece (big powers !), which European country is spending on defence ?

The only real original speech from Bayrou is about abuse of power and institutional behaviour from Sarkozy.
But it's not a long term political positioning or a philosophy, as, when Sarkozy will be out of power, the problem won't be so acute any longer.

Bayrou is almost nothing in terms of politicial philosophy and is an "imposture" in terms of politics and elections.
The problem is that many Frecnh people forgot about his past when he was an average politician inside the UDF, only interested in winning on Jacques Barrot, Bernard Bosson and Philippe Douste-Blazy, successive potential rivals...

I'm not a socialist, far from it, but I really wish the socialist candidate (any of them, even Royal) will be above him in the 1st round in 2012. We need a clear choice.

[Hash]

What is "social liberalism" ? Aren't Strauss-Kahn, Royal, Borloo, Barnier "social liberals" ? Bayrou isn't peculiar in this.

And which current day issues make up "social liberalism" in France? Gay marriage? Isn't Bayrou opposed to that? Euthanasia?

True secularism, I can understand, but is Bayrou peculiar in this ? Apart from Sarkozy personally (and maybe Kouchner but I'm not sure), who isn't a true secularist in France ?

Bayrou, the true secularist, when in the '90's Bayrou was a staunch Catholic (and probably still is, even if he downplays it).

"Gaullist" foreign policy is historically laughable from a centrist... But, what is more, it's just out of date. France was already cooperating with military structures inside NATO. Mitterrand and Chirac were far mor atlanticists than we were let to believe...

Now the French centre is "Gaullist"? Dear Lord.

Although not surprising, since Bayrou has effectively destroyed the old idea of French centrism and replaced it by his new modern definition.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Bayrou... who was an absolute coward when he was Education minister (do you remember ?).

I don't know if he was a coward or not but he's through the only ones who passed a reform there, and we're still working with his system.

Bayrou is almost nothing in terms of politicial philosophy and is an "imposture" in terms of politics and elections.
The problem is that many Frecnh people forgot about his past when he was an average politician inside the UDF, only interested in winning on Jacques Barrot, Bernard Bosson and Philippe Douste-Blazy, successive potential rivals...

He's nothing known, he tries to create something, I don't say that what he does is always wonderful, and that he's not hypocrite sometimes, but, well, he tries something...

I'm not a socialist, far from it, but I really wish the socialist candidate (any of them, even Royal) will be above him in the 1st round in 2012. We need a clear choice.

Yeah, everyone knows how the border between left and right is clear today...

"(any of them, even Royal)" You're crazy. I voted for her in 2007 (in the 2nd run), but now, after things that happened recently, I'm not so sure I could, and if there would have to be a run between her and Sarkozy again, frankly I could turn to the blank ballot I think...

What is "social liberalism" ? Aren't Strauss-Kahn, Royal, Borloo, Barnier "social liberals" ? Bayrou isn't peculiar in this.

And which current day issues make up "social liberalism" in France? Gay marriage? Isn't Bayrou opposed to that? Euthanasia?

If Antonio wasn't speaking about what we use to call social social-liberalism in France, I mean something which refers to economy, well, has Bayrou pronounced himself about that topics?

Now the French centre is "Gaullist"? Dear Lord.

Although not surprising, since Bayrou has effectively destroyed the old idea of French centrism and replaced it by his new modern definition.

Eh, yes, that's what we call change... The history of politics is full of such changes, let's see the history of GOP and Dems in the US for the few I know...

[Hash]

What is "social liberalism" ? Aren't Strauss-Kahn, Royal, Borloo, Barnier "social liberals" ? Bayrou isn't peculiar in this.

And which current day issues make up "social liberalism" in France? Gay marriage? Isn't Bayrou opposed to that? Euthanasia?

If Antonio wasn't speaking about what we use to call social social-liberalism in France, I mean something which refers to economy, well, has Bayrou pronounced himself about that topics?

I'm pretty sure Antonio was talking about social liberalism, a la North American social liberalism, and not European economic liberalism.

[Hash]

Anyways, changing from the topic of how Bayrou is this and that, which is not the point of this thread. So, changing topics.

Ipsos (best pollster)

UMP 27% (nc)
PS 23% (-1)
MoDem 11% (+1)
Greens 10% (+1)
NPA 7% (-2)
PCF-PG 6% (nc)
Libertas (MPF-CPNT) 6% (nc)
FN 5% (-0.5)
LO 2% (nc)
DLR 1% (nc)
All Others (MEI-GE, AL, PF, CNI) 2% (+1.5)

OK, this pretty much confirms that Ifop's numbers for the Greenies (and, by consequence, MoDem) are outliers, and probably the same for the FN. However, more pollsters are picking up the NPA's slight dip in support, so that's interesting.

[big bad fab]

Anyways, changing from the topic of how Bayrou is this and that, which is not the point of this thread. So, changing topics.

Ipsos (best pollster)

UMP 27% (nc)
PS 23% (-1)
MoDem 11% (+1)
Greens 10% (+1)
NPA 7% (-2)
PCF-PG 6% (nc)
Libertas (MPF-CPNT) 6% (nc)
FN 5% (-0.5)
LO 2% (nc)
DLR 1% (nc)
All Others (MEI-GE, AL, PF, CNI) 2% (+1.5)

OK, this pretty much confirms that Ifop's numbers for the Greenies (and, by consequence, MoDem) are outliers, and probably the same for the FN. However, more pollsters are picking up the NPA's slight dip in support, so that's interesting.

There was a famous sentence in a French film "les Tontons Flingueurs": je vais le faire exploser, le disperser aux 4 coins de Paris, façon puzzle. "I'm going to make him explode, to scatter him up, like a puzzle".

This is the same for European elections in France, since the beginning (1979): a scattered political landscape.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

This is the same for European elections in France, since the beginning (1979): a scattered political landscape.

Yep, all the elections are that split in France before the 1st run of each.

[Hash]

This is the same for European elections in France, since the beginning (1979): a scattered political landscape.

If anything, it's only gotten progressively more scattered.

[big bad fab]

This is the same for European elections in France, since the beginning (1979): a scattered political landscape.

Yep, all the elections are that split in France before the 1st run of each.

No, you can't say that.

Presidential elections up to 1995 produced bigger blocks (that's less true since 1995, granted).
In the first round of parliamentary elections, even in constituencies where there are many candidates, few have big numbers.
It can be a bit more divided in cantonal and local elections, but it's around a small number of lists.

Here, you've got UMP, PS, MoDem, Greens, NPA, FN with big or quite big numbers, and PG and MPF-CPNT not far behind...

The only other elections where it is so scattered are the regional ones (1992 and 1998 especially).

[Hash]

The EU elections are so divided because these are the only truly proportional elections in France (if you say the local elections are "proportional", you're crazy). This is definitely a plus for parties like the Left Front or Libertas.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Anyways, changing from the topic of how Bayrou is this and that, which is not the point of this thread. So, changing topics.

Ipsos (best pollster)

UMP 27% (nc)
PS 23% (-1)
MoDem 11% (+1)
Greens 10% (+1)
NPA 7% (-2)
PCF-PG 6% (nc)
Libertas (MPF-CPNT) 6% (nc)
FN 5% (-0.5)
LO 2% (nc)
DLR 1% (nc)
All Others (MEI-GE, AL, PF, CNI) 2% (+1.5)

OK, this pretty much confirms that Ifop's numbers for the Greenies (and, by consequence, MoDem) are outliers, and probably the same for the FN. However, more pollsters are picking up the NPA's slight dip in support, so that's interesting.

There was a famous sentence in a French film "les Tontons Flingueurs": je vais le faire exploser, le disperser aux 4 coins de Paris, façon puzzle. "I'm going to make him explode, to scatter him up, like a puzzle".

This is the same for European elections in France, since the beginning (1979): a scattered political landscape.

In 1979 there was only 4 main lists. European elections are not really more scattered than presidential, look at the 2002 results !

[Hash]

In 1979 there was only 4 main lists. European elections are not really more scattered than presidential, look at the 2002 results !

None of which actually even broke 30%, though. (Not that this is surprising taking into account the nature of French politics in 1979).

[Hash]

The UMP has finally released its entire lists. I'll only show the candidates that could, in theory, win a seat outright (most won't, needless to say). I bolded the people with a realistic chance at getting in (using FrancePolitique's projections based on Sarkozy's first round results in 2007).

East (9 seats)
1 - Joseph Daul (Bas-Rhin): MEP, President of the EPP-ED Parliamentary Group
2 - Véronique Mathieu (Vosges): MEP, Radical ex-CPNT
3 - Arnaud Danjean (Saône-et-Loire): Ran against Arnaud Montebourg in '07.
4 - Michèle Striffler (Haut-Rhin): Adjointe to the Mayor of Mulhouse. Modern Left.
5 - Benjamin Develey (Marne): Reims municipal councillor
6 - Nathalie Colin-Oesterle (Moselle): Metz municipal councillor. NC
7 - Sylvain Marmier (Doubs): President of some young agricultural thingee
8 - Annabelle Ferry (Meurthe et Moselle): President of the Young Radicals
9 - Guillaume Germain (Haut-Rhin)

Nord-Est (10 seats)

1 – Dominique Riquet (Nord): Mayor of Valenciennes. Radical
2 – Tokia Saifi (Nord): MEP. Radical
3 - Jean-Paul Gauzes: MEP
4 - Pascale Gruny (Aisne): Saint-Quentin municipal councillor
5 - Philippe Boulland (Oise): Oise general councillor
6 - Sonia de la Provote (Calvados): Caen municipal councillor. NC
7 - Philippe Rapeneau (Pas-de-Calais): NPDC regional councillor
8 - Blandine Lefebvre (Seine-Maritime): Regional councillor (Haute-Normandie) and Mayor of Saint-Nicolas-d'Aliermont. NC
9 - Pierre Savreux (Somme): Amiens municipal councillor. Departmental president of the Young Populars (UMP youth movement).
10 - Brigitte Mauroy (Nord): lol name. Lille municipal councillor. Modern Left

Ouest (9 seats)
1 – Christophe Bechu (Maine et- Loire): President of the Maine-et-Loire General Council
2 – Elisabeth Morin (Vienne): MEP, Poitou-Charentes regional councillor (ex-President)
3 - Alain Cadec (Côtes d’Armor): Côtes d’Armor general councillor. Adjoint to the MoDem Mayor of Saint-Brieuc
4 - Agnès le Brun (Finistère): Mayor of Morlaix and Finistère general councillor.
5 - Bruno Drapron (Charente-Maritime): Saintes municipal councillor. NC
6 - Danielle Rival (Loire-Atlantique): Regional councillor, Mayor of Batz-sur-Mer
7 - David le Solliec (Morbihan): Regional councillor, Mayor of Gourin
8 - Sylvie Marcilly (Charente-Maritime): Mayor of Fouras
9 - Richard Chamaret (Sarthe): NC

Sud-Ouest (10 seats)

1 – Dominique Baudis (Haute-Garonne): Former UDF Mayor of Toulouse and deputy. 1994 UDF-RPR list top candidate.
2 - Christine de Veyrac (Haute-Garonne): MEP, President of the UMP Fed in Haute-Garonne
3 - Alain Lamassoure (Pyrénées-Atlantiques): MEP
4 - Marie-Thérèse Sanchez-Schmidt (Pyrénées-Orientales): Adjointe to the Mayor of Perpignan
5 - Franck Proust (Gard): Gard general councillor
6 - Muriel Boulmier (Lot et Garonne): NC supported by FRS
7 - Yves Urieta (Pyrénées-Atlantiques): Former PS/GM Mayor of Pau. Modern Left
8 - Annabelle Brunet (Pyrénées-Orientales): Perpignan municipal councillor. NC
9 - Aurélien Pradie (Lot): Lot general councillor. Leader of the Lot Young Populars.
10 - Marie-France Theron (Gironde): Mayor of Portets

Sud-Est (13 seats)

1 - Françoise Grossetete (Loire): MEP
2 - Damien Abad: President of the Young Centrists. NC
3 - Dominique Vlasto (Bouches du Rhône): MEP
4 - Gaston Franco (Alpes-Maritimes): Former deputy
5 - Nora Berra (Rhône): Candidate in 2004 (5th spot)
6 - Michel Dantin (Savoie): Chambéry municipal councillor
7 - Karine Fenocchi (Corse du Sud): Ajaccio municipal councillor. NC
8 - Jérôme Clement (Vaucluse)
9 - Chantal Eyemoud (Hautes-Alpes): Mayor of Embrun (no, not the junk village next to Ottawa), NC
10 - Benoît Pelletier (Var): Toulon municipal councillor
11 - Pascale Modelski (Isère): Grenoble municipal councillor
12 - Jean-François Royer (Bouches-du-Rhône): Young Populars thingee
13 - Sonia Lacroix-Chamosset (Haute-Savoie)

IDF (13 seats)

1 – Michel Barnier: Minister of Agriculture
2 – Rachida Dati (Paris): Minister of Justice, Paris municipal councillor and Mayor of Paris-7
3 - Jean-Marie Cavada (Paris): MEP, NC/ACDE
4 - Marielle Gallo (Paris): Modern Left
5 - Philippe Juvin (Hauts-de-Seine): Mayor of Garenne-Colombes and VP of the CG92.
6 - Constance Le Grip (Seine-et-Marne): "Supply" deputy
7 - Xavier Lemoine (Seine-Saint-Denis): Mayor of Montfermeil. FRS
8 - Véronique Cote-Millard (Yvelines): Mayor of Clayes-sous-Bois
9 - Jean-Didier Berthault (Paris): Paris municipal councillor
10 - Céline Martin
11 - Benjamin Lancar: President of the Young Populars
12 - Anne Bernardin
13 - Gilles Norroy: The Progressives (Besson's thingee)

Massif Centre (5 seats)

1 - Jean-Pierre Audy (Corrèze): MEP
2 - Sophie Auconie (Indre-et-Loire): Tours municipal councillor. NC
3 - Brice Hortefeux (Puy-de-Dôme): Minister of Labour, Auvergne regional councillor (former MEP and top candidate in 2004)
4 - Catherine Soullie (Loiret)
5 - Jean-Yves Hugon (Indre): Former deputy

Outre-Mer (3 seats)

Marie-Luce Penchard (Atlantic candidate and 'top candidate')
Yolaine Costes (Indian Ocean candidate)
Maurice Ponga (Pacific candidate)

http://www.ump2009.eu/index.php?section=/endirect/detail&id=1792

The UMP managed to please its allies with the spots they were promised or demanded. The NC managed to get a good spot for Damien Abad in the Sud-Est. They also got eligible spots in the Capital Region with Cavada and a third one in the Massif-Centre. The Radicals managed to the top two spots in the Nord-Ouest and the second spot in the East. For GM, only Striffler could win a seat. The Progressives of Eric Besson gets only a thirteenth spot in IDF, though Xavier Bertrand insists that it's because Besson didn't ask for more. The FRS, Christine Boutin's joke party got seventh in Paris.

Anyways, it isn't that bad, but still deceiving to see good MEPs get bumped down to allow some old fool to run in first. Though atleast we don't have any Mayors of Trefouillet-les-Oies with a chance of winning.

On a side note, the UMP's slogan will be "Quand l'Europe veut, l'Europe peut" (When Europe wants, Europe can).

Here is the UMP's campaign poster. Sarkozy's face will be on the poster, obviously.

On another tangent, I'm officially endorsing the Parti breton/Strollad Breizh list in the Ouest.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The UMP has finally released its entire lists. I'll only show the candidates that could, in theory, win a seat outright (most won't, needless to say). I bolded the people with a realistic chance at getting in (using FrancePolitique's projections based on Sarkozy's first round results in 2007).

East (9 seats)
1 - Joseph Daul (Bas-Rhin): MEP, President of the EPP-ED Parliamentary Group
2 - Véronique Mathieu (Vosges): MEP, Radical ex-CPNT
3 - Arnaud Danjean (Saône-et-Loire): Ran against Arnaud Montebourg in '07.
4 - Michèle Striffler (Haut-Rhin): Adjointe to the Mayor of Mulhouse. Modern Left.
5 - Benjamin Develey (Marne): Reims municipal councillor
6 - Nathalie Colin-Oesterle (Moselle): Metz municipal councillor. NC
7 - Sylvain Marmier (Doubs): President of some young agricultural thingee
8 - Annabelle Ferry (Meurthe et Moselle): President of the Young Radicals
9 - Guillaume Germain (Haut-Rhin)

Nord-Est (10 seats)

1 – Dominique Riquet (Nord): Mayor of Valenciennes. Radical
2 – Tokia Saifi (Nord): MEP. Radical
3 - Jean-Paul Gauzes: MEP
4 - Pascale Gruny (Aisne): Saint-Quentin municipal councillor
5 - Philippe Boulland (Oise): Oise general councillor
6 - Sonia de la Provote (Calvados): Caen municipal councillor. NC
7 - Philippe Rapeneau (Pas-de-Calais): NPDC regional councillor
8 - Blandine Lefebvre (Seine-Maritime): Regional councillor (Haute-Normandie) and Mayor of Saint-Nicolas-d'Aliermont. NC
9 - Pierre Savreux (Somme): Amiens municipal councillor. Departmental president of the Young Populars (UMP youth movement).
10 - Brigitte Mauroy (Nord): lol name. Lille municipal councillor. Modern Left

Ouest (9 seats)
1 – Christophe Bechu (Maine et- Loire): President of the Maine-et-Loire General Council
2 – Elisabeth Morin (Vienne): MEP, Poitou-Charentes regional councillor (ex-President)
3 - Alain Cadec (Côtes d’Armor): Côtes d’Armor general councillor. Adjoint to the MoDem Mayor of Saint-Brieuc
4 - Agnès le Brun (Finistère): Mayor of Morlaix and Finistère general councillor.
5 - Bruno Drapron (Charente-Maritime): Saintes municipal councillor. NC
6 - Danielle Rival (Loire-Atlantique): Regional councillor, Mayor of Batz-sur-Mer
7 - David le Solliec (Morbihan): Regional councillor, Mayor of Gourin
8 - Sylvie Marcilly (Charente-Maritime): Mayor of Fouras
9 - Richard Chamaret (Sarthe): NC

Sud-Ouest (10 seats)

1 – Dominique Baudis (Haute-Garonne): Former UDF Mayor of Toulouse and deputy. 1994 UDF-RPR list top candidate.
2 - Christine de Veyrac (Haute-Garonne): MEP, President of the UMP Fed in Haute-Garonne
3 - Alain Lamassoure (Pyrénées-Atlantiques): MEP
4 - Marie-Thérèse Sanchez-Schmidt (Pyrénées-Orientales): Adjointe to the Mayor of Perpignan
5 - Franck Proust (Gard): Gard general councillor
6 - Muriel Boulmier (Lot et Garonne): NC supported by FRS
7 - Yves Urieta (Pyrénées-Atlantiques): Former PS/GM Mayor of Pau. Modern Left
8 - Annabelle Brunet (Pyrénées-Orientales): Perpignan municipal councillor. NC
9 - Aurélien Pradie (Lot): Lot general councillor. Leader of the Lot Young Populars.
10 - Marie-France Theron (Gironde): Mayor of Portets

Sud-Est (13 seats)

1 - Françoise Grossetete (Loire): MEP
2 - Damien Abad: President of the Young Centrists. NC
3 - Dominique Vlasto (Bouches du Rhône): MEP
4 - Gaston Franco (Alpes-Maritimes): Former deputy
5 - Nora Berra (Rhône): Candidate in 2004 (5th spot)
6 - Michel Dantin (Savoie): Chambéry municipal councillor
7 - Karine Fenocchi (Corse du Sud): Ajaccio municipal councillor. NC
8 - Jérôme Clement (Vaucluse)
9 - Chantal Eyemoud (Hautes-Alpes): Mayor of Embrun (no, not the junk village next to Ottawa), NC
10 - Benoît Pelletier (Var): Toulon municipal councillor
11 - Pascale Modelski (Isère): Grenoble municipal councillor
12 - Jean-François Royer (Bouches-du-Rhône): Young Populars thingee
13 - Sonia Lacroix-Chamosset (Haute-Savoie)

IDF (13 seats)

1 – Michel Barnier: Minister of Agriculture
2 – Rachida Dati (Paris): Minister of Justice, Paris municipal councillor and Mayor of Paris-7
3 - Jean-Marie Cavada (Paris): MEP, NC/ACDE
4 - Marielle Gallo (Paris): Modern Left
5 - Philippe Juvin (Hauts-de-Seine): Mayor of Garenne-Colombes and VP of the CG92.
6 - Constance Le Grip (Seine-et-Marne): "Supply" deputy
7 - Xavier Lemoine (Seine-Saint-Denis): Mayor of Montfermeil. FRS
8 - Véronique Cote-Millard (Yvelines): Mayor of Clayes-sous-Bois
9 - Jean-Didier Berthault (Paris): Paris municipal councillor
10 - Céline Martin
11 - Benjamin Lancar: President of the Young Populars
12 - Anne Bernardin
13 - Gilles Norroy: The Progressives (Besson's thingee)

Massif Centre (5 seats)

1 - Jean-Pierre Audy (Corrèze): MEP
2 - Sophie Auconie (Indre-et-Loire): Tours municipal councillor. NC
3 - Brice Hortefeux (Puy-de-Dôme): Minister of Labour, Auvergne regional councillor (former MEP and top candidate in 2004)
4 - Catherine Soullie (Loiret)
5 - Jean-Yves Hugon (Indre): Former deputy

Outre-Mer (3 seats)

Marie-Luce Penchard (Atlantic candidate and 'top candidate')
Yolaine Costes (Indian Ocean candidate)
Maurice Ponga (Pacific candidate)

http://www.ump2009.eu/index.php?section=/endirect/detail&id=1792

The UMP managed to please its allies with the spots they were promised or demanded. The NC managed to get a good spot for Damien Abad in the Sud-Est. They also got eligible spots in the Capital Region with Cavada and a third one in the Massif-Centre. The Radicals managed to the top two spots in the Nord-Ouest and the second spot in the East. For GM, only Striffler could win a seat. The Progressives of Eric Besson gets only a thirteenth spot in IDF, though Xavier Bertrand insists that it's because Besson didn't ask for more. The FRS, Christine Boutin's joke party got seventh in Paris.

Anyways, it isn't that bad, but still deceiving to see good MEPs get bumped down to allow some old fool to run in first. Though atleast we don't have any Mayors of Trefouillet-les-Oies with a chance of winning.

On a side note, the UMP's slogan will be "Quand l'Europe veut, l'Europe peut" (When Europe wants, Europe can).

Here is the UMP's campaign poster. Sarkozy's face will be on the poster, obviously.

On another tangent, I'm officially endorsing the Parti breton/Strollad Breizh list in the Ouest.

There are members of Gauche Moderne in the UMP list ? Oh, God...

[big bad fab]

Hash, we say "Trifouilly-les-Oies" in French )
Very nice remark !

And it's Chantal Emeyoud (not Eyemoud), mayor of Embrun (just up the Serre-Ponçon lake, with a huge dam, very well known in France, because this dam should prevent gigantic floods on the Durance river, like ones that caused many deaths in the 1950s).

Very disappointing to see Lamassoure in a dangerous position....

Note that, in the Ouest constituency, there is no big gun from the UMP in Bretagne.... Still in disarray.... But Béchu will do a fine nr.1 in this constituency.

Note also that there isn't many Juppé boys and girls in the Sud-Ouest constituency. Difficult for Juppé to come back inside the UMP....

[Hash]

And it's Chantal Emeyoud (not Eyemoud), mayor of Embrun (just up the Serre-Ponçon lake, with a huge dam, very well known in France, because this dam should prevent gigantic floods on the Durance river, like ones that caused many deaths in the 1950s).

The UMP says Eymeoud, actually. Nobody knows

Note that, in the Ouest constituency, there is no big gun from the UMP in Bretagne.... Still in disarray.... But Béchu will do a fine nr.1 in this constituency.

And the UMP in Bretagne has a number of Villepinistes. And Sarkozy doesn't want that. Either that or they're already quite busy (Couanau is Mayor of Saint-Malo, and I doubt he'd want to be MEP at his age, Mehaignerie is Mayor of Vitre and has an important spot in the UMP leadership, Marc Le Fur [a Sarkozyste, btw] is VP of the National Assembly, and the others are all mostly local politicians, not MEP material).

I like Béchu and I think he's a fine choice.

[big bad fab]

Mea maxima culpa:
I've made a mistake while correcting your mistake...
Deeply sorry.

Yes, of course, it's EYMEOUD (this time, I haven't screwed up my typo !).

Anyway, about Méhaignerie, I wouldn't say he has an "important" spot inside the UMP.
In fact, they create for him an apparently important mission because it was difficult to drop him entirely, but he is now an outsider. And his "social" counsels to the government irritate Sarkozy...

Locally, Méhaignerie has made a big mistake in joining the UMP, as Brittany's right is more on the centre-right. But it's now too late to join the NC.

[Hash]

A new Ifop poll (May 11)

UMP 27% (+0.5%)
PS 21.5% (-1%)
MoDem 13.5% (-0.5%)
Greenies 7% (-0.5%)
FN 7.5% (nc)
NPA 7% (nc)
PCF-PG 6.5% (+1%)
Libertas 5% (nc)
LO 2% (-0.5%)
DLR 1% (nc)
Others 2% (+1.5%)

[Antonio the Sixth]

A new Ifop poll (May 11)

UMP 27% (+0.5%)
PS 21.5% (-1%)
MoDem 13.5% (-0.5%)
Greenies 7% (-0.5%)
FN 7.5% (nc)
NPA 7% (nc)
PCF-PG 6.5% (+1%)
Libertas 5% (nc)
LO 2% (-0.5%)
DLR 1% (nc)
Others 2% (+1.5%)

So, PS is coming more and more down in the polls ?

[Hash]

So,

PRG has no candidates on PS lists?

Yeah, the PRG isn't supporting anybody. Unlike in 2004, when they ran a few lists here and there and 1999 where they supported the PS.

A new Ifop poll (May 11)

UMP 27% (+0.5%)
PS 21.5% (-1%)
MoDem 13.5% (-0.5%)
Greenies 7% (-0.5%)
FN 7.5% (nc)
NPA 7% (nc)
PCF-PG 6.5% (+1%)
Libertas 5% (nc)
LO 2% (-0.5%)
DLR 1% (nc)
Others 2% (+1.5%)

So, PS is coming more and more down in the polls ?

I'd wait for Ipsos to confirm this, since Ipsos is the best pollster. But the PS campaign is very weak and it fails to convince voters.

On top of that, European elections have tended to offer major blows to major parties (the UMP in 2004, the RPR-DL in 1999, the PS in 1994). Some in the PS are fearing a repeat of 1994, though that's a bit too pessimistic.

[Umengus]

for now, there is no campaign in france.