Does Miami-Dade swing to the right in 2020?

[Frenchrepublican]

If the election was held today, I would say yes. We are not going back to 2004 levels but it's clear that in 2016 a relatively large share of hispanic republicans refused to back Trump because they saw him as a ''racist'', some polls and 2018 elections results tend to show that these voters are coming back home. The fact that Trump is fairly popular among hispanics (40 to 45% approval) in Florida and the fact that DeSantis won 311k votes in Dade county (nearly as much than Trump in 2016) are clear elements that Trump has rebounded with Cuban voters.

As of now I think that Trump would win 37/38% of the vote in Miami Dade       

[Frenchrepublican]

Probably, by a slim margin. Democrats will make up for it elsewhere in the state though.

I wouldn't be so sure about that