Does Miami-Dade swing to the right in 2020?

[ProudModerate2]

If Bernie is the nominee?  Absolutely.

This.
It really depends on who is on the Dem ticket.

[Skye]

What percent of Latinos in FL are Cuban?

https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=bkmk

According to this, from 2017 estimates, they're about 27%. In Miami-Dade, however, they represent 53%.

[redeagleofficial]

I expect FL hispanics to trend red.  DeSantis and Scott nearly broke 40 there, so I see it happening.  Not by a whole lot but he will break 35-36.

[redeagleofficial]

I don't think Trump can just cry socialism and all the sudden Cubans who voted for Hillary are in Trump's camp. This is partly a generational shift and a long term problem for the Republicans in Florida. So while it could get slightly more Republican in 2020, I doubt it's by a substantial margin or by a margin that makes or breaks the state at large.

Cubans trended R in 2016 and again in 2018.  Lots of D voting cubans are culturally conservative and we are now seeing that shift

[Kamala's side hoe]

I don't think Trump can just cry socialism and all the sudden Cubans who voted for Hillary are in Trump's camp. This is partly a generational shift and a long term problem for the Republicans in Florida. So while it could get slightly more Republican in 2020, I doubt it's by a substantial margin or by a margin that makes or breaks the state at large.

Cubans trended R in 2016 and again in 2018.  Lots of D voting cubans are culturally conservative and we are now seeing that shift

machismo is one helluva drug
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=noWfDUHnsHA

[Ilhan Apologist]

If Bernie is the nominee?  Absolutely.

This.
It really depends on who is on the Dem ticket.

Not really. It swung right in the 2018 senate race, and Trump is looking stronger with Cubans than in 2016. Sanders may be a poorer fit for Cubans than most Dem candidates, but it will swing right regardless.

[538Electoral]

I'd say Trump gets 35% in the county right now. I think It'll trend Republican by a little bit.

[MT Treasurer]

Tom Wolf won 70% of the vote in Lackawanna County, PA, in 2014. Two years later, Clinton almost lost it. I’d be extremely careful not to extrapolate 2020 results from 2018 trends in places like this, especially since there’s no way Trump will come even close to replicating Scott's and Salazar's numbers.