Canadian Election 2019

[DC Al Fine]

Nanos was virtually unchanged, too. Liberals dropped less than a point and the Greens and NDP gained no more than a point (the Conservatives had a tiny drop in support). Those aren't even obvious enough changes to be anything other than statistical noise.

Today's Nanos is showing changes sinking in: Libs from 34.2 to 32.0, Cons from 37.4 to 36.8, NDP from 12.8 to 13.7, Bloc from 3.5 to 5.4 (!), Green from 9.3 to 9.0, PPC stable at 2.4.

So the Libs are definitely showing 2006-election-style damage (how lastingly, who knows), but the Cons aren't really benefiting (though this *could* shift them back into seat advantage), and the NDP's recovering from a downward blip that threatened to herd Nanos with the fourth-place-Dipper pollsters.  But, the Bloc--it'd seem as if the bulk of the damage was in Quebec (though I haven't seen any provincials, not being a Nanos subscriber)

To add to what Adma said, Nanos' daily tracking poll is actually a three day rolling sample, so

a) That 2.2% drop day to day is indicative a larger daily drop

b) We still only have a 2/3 of a proper post blackface poll

[DC Al Fine]

But what you’re missing is that the normal level of NDP support in Canadian elections going back to 1962 is about 17-18%. Lately the NDP was polling way lower than that largely because people kept being told that Singh was an weak leader. One thing everyone agrees on is that Singh has campaigned very well so far and that he hit the ball out of the park with how he handled Trudeau’s minstrel show pictures. A lot of people who usually vote NDP may now start to “come home” to their usual home and you could see the NDP move back to the mid to high teens. Just anecdotally, two weeks ago people I know who vote NDP were doing so despite Singh and no one wanted to talk about him. Now NDP voters are feeling proud of him and he is drawing bigger more enthusiastic crowds. The whole emotion around the NDP campaign has changed 180 degrees

But the one thing that *could* (not *will*, but *could*) wind up pushing against that in the end is beyond Singh's control; and that is the impulse to "stop Scheer".  A sort of modern-day Conservative Derangement Syndrome--that is, voters *liking* Jagmeet; but, y'know, we have to stop the forces of Trump and Ford from ruling our country and the only way to do that is to avoid splitting the vote, etc.  So, holding their nose and plumping for the Justinface Libs by default.  Particularly if they start seeing polls showing the Cons holding their 30something base while the Libs and Dippers edge closer together...uh-oh, better not have that.

Then again, the Cons are also trending downward w/Nanos' latest;  that is, *they* didn't get a bump from any of this--but it's not like they're guaranteed to head south of 30 anytime soon, either...

Either outcome could hurt the Greens badly. Many (most?) of their supporters have never voted for them before, so I imagine their vote is quite soft. They could jump ship to the NDP because of Singh's response to the scandal or to the Liberals to stop Scheer.

I feel like Green losses due to the blackface scandal are an underrated part of this campaign, especially now that the Greens are getting more scrutiny than they usually do.

[DC Al Fine]

Mainstreet has their full three days of post brownface polling out. (Change from pre-brownface polling in parentheses)

Conservative: 34.8% (+0.4)
Liberal: 33.9% (-3.3)
NDP: 11.4% (+1.6)
Green: 10.7% (+0.6)
Bloc 4.9% (+0.4)
People's: 3.6% (+0.3)

[DC Al Fine]

I’m not going to post the numbers, but today’s Nanos (last few Nanos polls actually) has the Liberals doing far better with 60 and above than 18 to 29. I checked some other polls, and aside from Forum (which also has the Conservatives leading with Enbys), they have the age relationship one would expect. It’s odd, wonder why that is.

Trudeau making a play for the older white nationalist vote

Serious time; what are the margins of error like on the age crosstabs? Those can often be quite large sometimes, especially for some of the smaller ones like 18-29 or Atlantic Canadian voters. If a more plausible old Tory/younger progressive relationship is still within the margin of error, I'd say it's just noise. If it's outside the margin of error, and Nanos is the only non-lolForum pollster showkmg it, there might be a systematic error (against the Tories presumably).

[DC Al Fine]

FWIW, after all the hyperventilating, it seems to be that the electoral impact of Trudeau taking part in a minstrel show will be pretty marginal. If this had happened four years ago, it would have been fatal for Trudeau, but now he has a record as PM and that is something for people to balance this against. These scandals just don't seem to have the impact they once did.

The whole story likely did two things - it gave NDP leader Jagmeet Singh an opportunity to hit the ball out of the park with his reaction and to gain profile AND it torpedoes the Liberal strategy of going after Tory candidates for things they said or did in the past...but in the end i don't think it changes the fundamentals and I am still predicting what I predicted months ago - Liberals lose majority, remain largest party and a Trudeau minority gov't likely lasts a full 4 years

I agree for the most part, but why a full four years?

[DC Al Fine]

I have the Wikipedia candidate list a quick skim to see which riding has the most candidates. Ottawa Centre appears to be the winner with a whopping twelve:

• All the major parties
• Two independents
• Animal Protection
• Christian Heritage
• Communist
• Libertarian
• National Citizens Alliance

That will make for an intreresting candidates debate.

[DC Al Fine]

I think if any impact of Black face, it forced Liberals to focus more on policies rather than gotcha moments.  If you look at since made several announcements of policies that would seem popular, although 3 of the 4 steal from other parties or are to counter others.  An assault weapons ban which is probably to trip up the Tories since either they support it and help the PPC split the right or as they have oppose it and they can attack them as being in the pockets of the gun lobby.  Most who feel civilians should be allowed to own these are already voting Tory so little downside and plenty up. 

Then there is the rise in basic personal exemption so I think that was in response to Scheer's universal tax cut which was more progressive and helped middle class more than Trudeau's 2015 middle class tax cut, so this was a way to regain the upper hand on being the party for middle class and those wishing to join it.  Also promise lower cell phone bills and now pharmacare which are also taken right from the NDP.

Biggest weakness is their policies unlike Tories and NDP haven't been fully costed and that leaves them somewhat vulnerable there.  Not on left flank as I don't think those on left are too concerned about higher taxes (since assume it will only hit higher income earners who they want to tax more) or deficits, but amongst centrist voters may concern some if it becomes a focal point.  I think Wynne and Horwarth fell short as people liked their promises, but felt they were unaffordable.  People aren't allergic to deficits, but they like to see some fiscal anchor even if not a balanced budget to show governments not spending like crazy.  Also for tax hikes on rich, PBO website shows only $400 million increase per % so unless they go after top three brackets, not just top, very little revenue to tap there.  Perhaps though copying from NDP, they will include a wealth tax and raise capital gains tax inclusion to 2/3 or 75% as both those would bring in far more revenue although still not quite enough to cover all promises, but at least a lot closer. 

Link? That data sounds interesting.

I have the Wikipedia candidate list a quick skim to see which riding has the most candidates. Ottawa Centre appears to be the winner with a whopping twelve:

• All the major parties
• Two independents
• Animal Protection
• Christian Heritage
• Communist
• Libertarian
• National Citizens Alliance

That will make for an intreresting candidates debate.

Ottawa Centre always has interesting debates. Also fun (related?) fact: Ottawa Centre had the highest turnout of all ridings in 2015.

Any good stories come to mind?

[DC Al Fine]

Anybody else think Justin Trudeau is insane? 

He didn't realize the Aladdin costume was racist?  Look at the incredible attention to detail.  He not only knew it was racist, he wore it because it was racist.  He wanted to be the center of attention.  I don't think he's just an extreme narcissist though, I've come to the conclusion that Justin Trudeau reality is being an actor in real life. 

I don't know if this is all that serious though for a Prime Minister.  From what I've read, Mackenzie King was also quite insane and he was Prime Minister for around 22 years.

I believe the technical term to describe him is "goober".

[DC Al Fine]

And today's Nanos daily tracker has the Libs jumping from 33.1 to 35.1, the Cons falling from 34.3 to 33.5.  So much for the CPC capitalizing on a blackface backlash...

Looking back at the polls Nanos has had the highest Tory result AND was 0.2 off the lowest Tory result of any pollster so far during this campaign. What's with that

[DC Al Fine]

I had a chance to drive around Halifax the past few days, so here is my unscientific take on the sign war.

Darmouth-Cole Harbour: Liberals have far and away the most. Tories have a repeat candidate so they had a decent enough number of signs up quickly. Few NDP and no Green signs.

Halifax: Weird three way race between the Liberals, NDP and Greens, who are all running strong candidates and all have favourable parts of the riding. The old money part of Halifax has a few Tory signs but I didn't see them anywhere else.

Halifax West: Speaker Geoff Regan probably has the best organization of anyone in Halifax. Has had the most signs of anyone in the city. Tories and Greens both have solid #'s (Greens are running a city councilor). Very few NDP signs.

Sackville-Preston-Chezzetcook: Liberals have the most, with Tories in a close second. Most shocking part was how few NDP signs I saw. Traditionally Sackville would be plastered orange all campaign, but I guess the NDP organization in Sackville was more Peter Stoffer loyalists than NDP supporters.

[DC Al Fine]

Scheer has dual American citizenship which he is currently renouncing.

Why?
Mulcair has French dual citizenship, and he did not renounce in 2015 (from what I recall) It is not a requirement for Canadian politicians to only be Canadian citizens as far as I know.

American citizenship lines up with the scary right winger attacks.

[DC Al Fine]

Candidate count (by myself, may contain mistakes):
Liberal 338
Conservative 338
NDP 338
Green 338
PPC 315
Independents 125
Bloc Québécois 78
Christian Heritage 51
Marxist Leninist 50
Rhinoceros 39
Communist 30
Veterans Coalition 25
Libertarian 24
Animal Protection 17
Parti pour l’indépendance du Québec 13
Fourth Front 7
Marijuana 4
United 4
National Citizens Alliance 4
Progressive 3
Nationalist Party 3
Stop Climate Change 2

Ridings with the most candidates (11):
Papineau
Ottawa Centre

Ridings with the least candidates (4):
Avalon
Bonavista-Burin-Trinity
Coast of Bays-Central-Notre Dame
Labrador
St John's East
Egmont
Malpeque
Halifax West
Acadie-Bathurst
Madawaska-Restigouche
York Centre
Nunavut

Hmm I wonder what happened to the Libertarians. They had the largest fringe slate last time. Christian Heritage seems to have recovered from their worst ever candidate figures in 2015.

[DC Al Fine]

After the bidding war of campaign promises reached, to me, an absurd level of unreality, I'm seriously thinking of spoiling my ballot.  Anybody else considering doing that?

Just as a couple examples

Elizabeth May 'The Liberals say they'll plant 2 billion trees, we'll plant 10 billion trees!'

According to economist Kevin Milligan's calculations, the Conservatives total campaign spending promises and tax cuts amount to only $4 billion less per year for the term than the Liberal campaign spending promises and tax cuts.  So, that's roughly $70 billion in new spending compared to the Liberals $80 billion.  

However, the Conservatives also promises to balance the budget in the '5th year.'  Other than cutting foreign aid by 25% which is a drop in the bucket on $70 billion, the Conservatives have not stated what they'll cut.  They are implicitly running on Doug Ford's 'no problem finding efficiencies' lie.  (Or they're lying that they can balance the budget in 'the 5th year.')

The NDP meanwhile is making easy promises of solving problems knowing it will not get elected and have to actually do that.  And especially the sleazy rage filled Charlie Angus is calling out the Liberals for not living up to the false easy promises the NDP are making.

And Justin Trudeau is simply insane.  

I think this is easily the worst Canadian election in my lifetime.  Expressing a vote of no confidence in this campaign and in the leaders by spoiling my ballot is making more and more sense to me.

Vote for a fringe candidate?

I'm toying with the idea of spoiling my ballot, but I like my local Tory candidate, so I suspect I'll wind up voting for him in the end.

[DC Al Fine]

I think the important thing in regards to Singh's survival is that you can sort of ignore Quebec? If the NDP caucus holds up in the rest of Canada, even if it's masked by a total blowout in Francophone ridings, that would be a healthy sign.

Agreed. The NDP will need to show some improvement for that to happen though. As things currently stand most projection models are showing then losing a significant portion of their Rest of Canada caucus on top of being nearly wiped out in Quebec.
 

[DC Al Fine]

Singh looks great. Such a shame that the NDP never polls well enough pre-election for NDP supporters to feel like actually voting NDP at the ballot box isn't a waste of a vote in many of the ridings.

Yeah tactical voting looks like it'll squeeze the NDP again. It's tragic how they lost in 2015, I wish Mulcair had won that election and the NDP was the major party of the left.

My riding is strictly red or blue most of the time, but in that 2015 election it was really looking like the NDP had a shot. I will sadly be tactical voting myself this time, against Scheer's Conservatives. In my riding the best way to.do so is to vote Liberal. The stakes are too high with the climate crisis for me to spend my vote virtue signalling that I support the NDP in a riding where they will not win (this time).

If the polls start massively shifting away from Trudeau and towards Singh, I will vote NDP. It looks like that won't be happening though.

You do realize, your vote isn't going to be the deciding vote in this election, right?

Tactical voting on the level of the individual makes no logical sense.

This x1000

Vote your conscience. Imperfect politicians don't deserve your non-decisive vote just because of how they're polling.

[DC Al Fine]

Singh looks great. Such a shame that the NDP never polls well enough pre-election for NDP supporters to feel like actually voting NDP at the ballot box isn't a waste of a vote in many of the ridings.

Yeah tactical voting looks like it'll squeeze the NDP again. It's tragic how they lost in 2015, I wish Mulcair had won that election and the NDP was the major party of the left.

My riding is strictly red or blue most of the time, but in that 2015 election it was really looking like the NDP had a shot. I will sadly be tactical voting myself this time, against Scheer's Conservatives. In my riding the best way to.do so is to vote Liberal. The stakes are too high with the climate crisis for me to spend my vote virtue signalling that I support the NDP in a riding where they will not win (this time).

If the polls start massively shifting away from Trudeau and towards Singh, I will vote NDP. It looks like that won't be happening though.

You do realize, your vote isn't going to be the deciding vote in this election, right?

Tactical voting on the level of the individual makes no logical sense.

This x1000

Vote your conscience. Imperfect politicians don't deserve your non-decisive vote just because of how they're polling.

My conscience says that a Conservative government making Canadian climate change policy is unacceptable, and not doing my small small part to try to prevent that is a moral duty that I cannot neglect.

Right. Doing what you can to prevent a Tory government, even if it means tactically supporting a less-preferred party, is not only how politics works, it also Is "voting your conscience." 

Weren't you talking about being open to and volunteering for Joint List? And you're advocating tactical voting to keep Bibi Scheer out? Ok you do you.

[DC Al Fine]

Singh looks great. Such a shame that the NDP never polls well enough pre-election for NDP supporters to feel like actually voting NDP at the ballot box isn't a waste of a vote in many of the ridings.

Yeah tactical voting looks like it'll squeeze the NDP again. It's tragic how they lost in 2015, I wish Mulcair had won that election and the NDP was the major party of the left.

My riding is strictly red or blue most of the time, but in that 2015 election it was really looking like the NDP had a shot. I will sadly be tactical voting myself this time, against Scheer's Conservatives. In my riding the best way to.do so is to vote Liberal. The stakes are too high with the climate crisis for me to spend my vote virtue signalling that I support the NDP in a riding where they will not win (this time).

If the polls start massively shifting away from Trudeau and towards Singh, I will vote NDP. It looks like that won't be happening though.

You do realize, your vote isn't going to be the deciding vote in this election, right?

Tactical voting on the level of the individual makes no logical sense.

(1) You have no idea which riding I am in or just how close the polls or results will be between Scheer and Trudeau in my riding. You DON'T KNOW one vote won't count. Ignorant post.

Tell you what Tchenka. Why don't you tell us your riding, and if your vote actually is the deciding one, Hatman and I will buy you a case of beer. This isn't a PEI village council election so I feel comfortable making that bet.

[DC Al Fine]

Singh looks great. Such a shame that the NDP never polls well enough pre-election for NDP supporters to feel like actually voting NDP at the ballot box isn't a waste of a vote in many of the ridings.

Yeah tactical voting looks like it'll squeeze the NDP again. It's tragic how they lost in 2015, I wish Mulcair had won that election and the NDP was the major party of the left.

My riding is strictly red or blue most of the time, but in that 2015 election it was really looking like the NDP had a shot. I will sadly be tactical voting myself this time, against Scheer's Conservatives. In my riding the best way to.do so is to vote Liberal. The stakes are too high with the climate crisis for me to spend my vote virtue signalling that I support the NDP in a riding where they will not win (this time).

If the polls start massively shifting away from Trudeau and towards Singh, I will vote NDP. It looks like that won't be happening though.

You do realize, your vote isn't going to be the deciding vote in this election, right?

Tactical voting on the level of the individual makes no logical sense.

This x1000

Vote your conscience. Imperfect politicians don't deserve your non-decisive vote just because of how they're polling.

My conscience says that a Conservative government making Canadian climate change policy is unacceptable, and not doing my small small part to try to prevent that is a moral duty that I cannot neglect.

Right. Doing what you can to prevent a Tory government, even if it means tactically supporting a less-preferred party, is not only how politics works, it also Is "voting your conscience." 

Weren't you talking about being open to and volunteering for Joint List? And you're advocating tactical voting to keep Bibi Scheer out? Ok you do you.

Israeli politics work very differently than Canada's non-proportional system. Supporting left wing parties in Israel actually helped beat the right wing, but in Canada it will only hurt. In Anglo-FPTP  systems you don't have the convenience of being dogmatic like yoi do in Israel.

Correct on the face of it, but Arab parties have difficulty joining in governments in Israel. Your vote didn't elect any Likudniks, but in a very small way, it made the "coalition math" harder for anti-Bibi parties. If your #1 goal was to displace Bibi you would be better served by voting for one of the Jewish left parties.

Now of course I don't care. People should vote for their preferred party and individual votes don't make a meaningful difference. Heck, there is a fringe party I would vote for if I was able. But the your situation is closer to Anglo-FPTP than you are letting on.

[DC Al Fine]

Singh looks great. Such a shame that the NDP never polls well enough pre-election for NDP supporters to feel like actually voting NDP at the ballot box isn't a waste of a vote in many of the ridings.

Yeah tactical voting looks like it'll squeeze the NDP again. It's tragic how they lost in 2015, I wish Mulcair had won that election and the NDP was the major party of the left.

My riding is strictly red or blue most of the time, but in that 2015 election it was really looking like the NDP had a shot. I will sadly be tactical voting myself this time, against Scheer's Conservatives. In my riding the best way to.do so is to vote Liberal. The stakes are too high with the climate crisis for me to spend my vote virtue signalling that I support the NDP in a riding where they will not win (this time).

If the polls start massively shifting away from Trudeau and towards Singh, I will vote NDP. It looks like that won't be happening though.

You do realize, your vote isn't going to be the deciding vote in this election, right?

Tactical voting on the level of the individual makes no logical sense.

(1) You have no idea which riding I am in or just how close the polls or results will be between Scheer and Trudeau in my riding. You DON'T KNOW one vote won't count. Ignorant post.

(2) If you haven't figured out, there are likely hundreds or maybe even a thousand plus people in my riding with politics like mine making these same calculations. If we all vote strategically or if none of us vote strategically, it can have a big impact in my riding. Your "one vote doesn't count" argument is a flawed way of thinking. If all of us took your advice and just voted for our preferred party regardless of the situation, we alone as a group could cause a Conservative MP for this riding. Which could be the one MP needed to put Scheer over 50%, or the one MP the Liberal-NDP coalition needed to exceed 50% but now they need to negotiate with the Greens as well to form a government.

(1) Doesn't matter what riding you live in. The chance that your vote will be the deciding vote is negligible. You'd have a better chance getting in a car accident on you way to vote. I've studied elections for a long time. I can count on one hand how many elections have been decided by one vote at all levels of government.

(2) An individual vote is an individual vote. A group of people does not equal a monolithic vote group.

If people like you did vote for who they really wanted instead of stopping who they didn't want, the Liberals would tack left to try and get your votes. If you just vote for them anyway, they don't have to make that shift electorally. If no one votes NDP or Green, then there's no incentive for the Liberals to tack left at all.

And I get it, if everyone like you voted their conscience, maybe the Tories would win. Perhaps that would make for a good punishment for Trudeau for abandoning his electoral reform promise. If he went ahead with his promise, we wouldn't be having this argument.

If you can feel comfortable voting for the Liberals, then that's your prerogative. But do not delude yourself in believing you will have the deciding vote. I can guarantee that will not be the case.

The relationship many progressives have with the Liberals borders on a protection racket. They have single handedly eliminated the one policy that would allow for a progressive alternative to the Liberals and Tories, and then have the chutzpah to play up fear of a Tory government if progressives don't forgive their myriad of sins against progressive politics.

Thus, we see progressives voting for Justin the Blackface Pipeline Mogul to defend against Tory racism or climate inaction or something. It's surreal. I genuinely pity the NDP/Greens and their supporters for having to put up with this nonsense.

[DC Al Fine]

https://twitter.com/MariekeWalsh/status/1182481910527909893

Trudeau doing his best Kellie Leitch impression.

[DC Al Fine]

Voted Tory in the advance poll yesterday.

I toyed with voting People's or spoiling my ballot, but my ultimately decided that Scheer and my local candidate were better fits for my views.

[DC Al Fine]

We're talking about the federal Liberals here. Do they have the courage to lead a minority government if they win fewer seats than the Tories? I wouldn't bet on it.

What do you mean "do they have the courage?". For the Liberals being in power is the be all and the end all. It takes zero courage for them to stop at nothing to keep power. What would take courage would be to voluntarily let Scheer become PM without having exhausted every possibility! The worst day in power is a hundred times better than the best day in opposition. Why wouldn't they do absolutely ANYTHING to cling to power damn the torpedoes. The last time the Liberals lost their plurality in 2006, they reassured themselves that Harper would have no luck leading a minority government and that his government would collapse just like Clark's in 1979 and that the Liberals would be back within a year...ten years later Harper was still PM and the Liberals came extremely close to being killed off by the NDP. They wont let that happen again.

Well for one, the last time the Liberals tried to do a coalition with the Bloc Quebecois, the Tories broke 50% support and they got their arse kicked in the next election

The Liberals, with their Anglo-Quebecer base and long standing reputation as the The Federalist Party^TM, going into coalition with the Bloc Quebecois is a very different thing than a Liberal-NDP coalition or even horsetrading with Bloc to pass a budget. Legally it might be the same, but the risk profile of a leader surnamed Trudeau getting in bed with the seperatists is very, very different.

[DC Al Fine]

Voted Tory in the advance poll yesterday.

I toyed with voting People's or spoiling my ballot, but my ultimately decided that Scheer and my local candidate were better fits for my views.

You didn't wait until election day? Don't you want to see your vote contribute to the maps?

What I'm finding from my social-media feed is that an *awful* lot of people are "selfie voting" in advance--sort of like a forthright declaration of a commitment to exercise their franchise, the earlier the better; and in a way that implicitly encourages others to follow suit.  And reports are that advance turnout's up 25% from last time, which I think is all about advance turnout, rather than turnout in general.  (And the phenomenon seems particularly common among the "fashionably left"; thus, some of last year's Ontario NDP landslides were even *more* landslidish in the advance polls.)

Which, of course, is hell to those of us who use the polling-map barometer--almost as if good old-fashioned voting on Election Day is becoming a Luddite anachronism a la land lines and print newspapers...

Eh, I have little kids and difficulty finding babysitters. I'm not risking having to entertain a cranky toddler in an Election Day line

[DC Al Fine]

Rough guesses

A: 50%
B: 50%
C: 20%
D:  5%

[DC Al Fine]

It’s now looking like the Greens will end up with no more than 2 or 3 seats so it’s unlikely their seats will matter in the calculation of who can form government. I suspect the Liberals and NDP alone will get 170+ rendering the Greens irrelevant

Agreed, and even if the Greens do make the difference at 2-3 seats, it still makes governing rather difficult. You don't want your governing majority thrown in peril by three MP's going out to dinner and eating some bad shellfish