Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[Coldstream]

Would not Senators from Renzi and Berlusconi parties have an incentive to break ranks and vote with the government ?  A snap election most likely they lose their seats.  As much as I want a snap election where Lega sweeps into power I sort of doubt that will actually take place.

I know you have always treaded the line between responsible orthodox economic policies and the supporting the most right-wing option available, but I thought you liked the former more than the latter?

By now you should understand that "scratch a libertarian, a fascist bleeds" is a 100% accurate summary of jaichind's politics. He's the literal living embodiment of the phrase.

Aren’t Lega Nord quite economically interventionist too? I’d have thought Brothers of Italy would be more suitable for a fascist adjacent Libertarian.

[Coldstream]

Would not Senators from Renzi and Berlusconi parties have an incentive to break ranks and vote with the government ?  A snap election most likely they lose their seats.  As much as I want a snap election where Lega sweeps into power I sort of doubt that will actually take place.

I know you have always treaded the line between responsible orthodox economic policies and the supporting the most right-wing option available, but I thought you liked the former more than the latter?

By now you should understand that "scratch a libertarian, a fascist bleeds" is a 100% accurate summary of jaichind's politics. He's the literal living embodiment of the phrase.

Aren’t Lega Nord quite economically interventionist too? I’d have thought Brothers of Italy would be more suitable for a fascist adjacent Libertarian.

Yeah, the famously economically interventionist party which *checks notes* has proposed a 15% flat income tax and also *checks notes* supports giving more autonomy to rich Northern regions.

That’s why I asked. All I knew was Salvini used to be a communist. And my question whether they were “more interventionist” than FdL.

[Coldstream]

Surely Salvini is handing Meloni a huge, unnecessary, win by allowing her to be only opposition? Unless he thinks he’ll be able to wield the same power he did in Conte I.

[Coldstream]

Surely Salvini is handing Meloni a huge, unnecessary, win by allowing her to be only opposition? Unless he thinks he’ll be able to wield the same power he did in Conte I.

Or unless he thinks that a Meloni government would be better than a Salvini government by virtue of him having fewer official responsibilities to take.

Salvini out here playing 6D chess and I’m playing dominoes.

[Coldstream]

Salvini must resent the way that Meloni has supplanted him as the far right leader, perhaps the best hope for Italian Democracy is that this divide can be manipulated somehow.

[Coldstream]

*Surely* Di Maio, Toti and Renzi have to work together? If not with the PD at least with each other - otherwise they all go down. I get they are egos, but they can’t possibly think they have any hope of relevance without cooperation.

I’m resigned that this won’t happen, and Meloni will win an even bigger majority than the polls show because this is the world we live in - but still, someone should try and broker a deal across the
Pro-Eu/Pro Nato centre & left.

[Coldstream]

*Surely* Di Maio, Toti and Renzi have to work together? If not with the PD at least with each other - otherwise they all go down. I get they are egos, but they can’t possibly think they have any hope of relevance without cooperation.

I’m resigned that this won’t happen, and Meloni will win an even bigger majority than the polls show because this is the world we live in - but still, someone should try and broker a deal across the
Pro-Eu/Pro Nato centre & left.

Di Maio and Renzi specifically working together seems. Rather implausible given their history, but then again, stranger things have happened in Italian politics. If they end up together it will almost certainly be as part of a PD-led coalition, though.

Di Maio seems to have made a complete about face on everything M5S stood for though and embraced the EU.

[Coldstream]

It seems that PD is negotiating with Renzi:

https://twitter.com/ultimora_pol/status/1553104522666545156

The PD opens to Italia Viva, #Letta: "Dialogue with Renzi, he is our interlocutor"

Good news from a vote-splitting perspective, though I hope they don’t offer Renzi more than he’s worth.

[Coldstream]

Never thought I’d be ranking Di Maio ahead of Renzi. I hope Renzi & Calenda crash out of Parliament with 0 seats - absolutely, predictably, appalling self centredness not to come together with the PD.

[Coldstream]

Can someone more knowledgeable than I explain why AVS didn’t support the Draghi government yet are happy to work with PD? Was it not wanting to support a government containing the right?

[Coldstream]

Lazio fans actually less fash than I would have expected.

Shame there aren't any numbers for Livorno.

I went to Livorno once and it struck me as the perfect place for 21st century RW populists to get power. History of working class movement, combined with huge decay, crumbling infrastructure and general poverty compared to Pisa & Florence. So it pleased me when I found out the left still hold firm there, shows that trends aren’t universal etc.

[Coldstream]

Lazio fans actually less fash than I would have expected.

Shame there aren't any numbers for Livorno.

I went to Livorno once and it struck me as the perfect place for 21st century RW populists to get power. History of working class movement, combined with huge decay, crumbling infrastructure and general poverty compared to Pisa & Florence. So it pleased me when I found out the left still hold firm there, shows that trends aren’t universal etc.

I don't have a sure explanation for this, but I think there's a level of "regional entrenchedness" of the mainstream centre-left and in addition Livorno has strong radical tendencies (incredibly high number of votes for the extraparliamentary far left recently). The post-industrial-ness has of course also manifested in great M5S results by regional standards - and it had a M5S mayor from 2014 to 2019 - which after all defines such places even better than right-wing populist strength.

Separately, I did not find Livorno to look especially bad? If you want a place with infamously crumbling infrastructure and a much bigger decline at least in population terms I know one that starts with G not too far of course.

Perhaps it was just the juxtaposition of seeing Pisa & Florence in the same week, but to me it seemed like the whole city was crumbling. Don’t mistake me I think it’s a lovely place and I really liked it there! - I just thought it reminded me of Red Wall types in the UK.

One thing I also found odd is that in an undeniably left wing city, there were still statues of slaves in chains (I think Moors is how they are described on the statue). As someone who grew up in Bristol this seemed surprising!

[Coldstream]

M5S has gained maybe a point or two in the past month or so, yes. Of course, its polling a month or so ago was at its lowed in the entire legislature, so that's not exactly a stunning rebound. Still, it might indeed be possible that Conte actually benefited from pulling the plug on Draghi - a deeply worrisome proposition as it validates all of the M5S' worst instincts.

As for the ""third pole"" (lol, sure), it doesn't really make sense to say that it's gained or lost, since it has just barely established itself as a coherent block. That said, I'll admit that it is polling a little higher than I was expecting it to (although I still think it has more room to fall than grow come election day).

I don’t wish to sound solipsistic, but there’s no real way around it. Why on Earth is anyone voting for Calenda/Renzi? Who looks at Enrico Letta and thinks “this man is an extremist who needs to be reigned in by Renzi” who doesn’t just vote for the right.