Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Isn't Letta ex-DC

Yes, but it doesn't matter much [or at any rate, less than allying with AVS, his personal feud with Renzi, the general direction of the party and so on]. It does make this even more hilarious though.

Yeah, these days the old "ex DC vs ex PCI" divide doesn't really explain PD factional politics that well. There are tons of ex-PCI types who have turned into shameless neolibs, and even a few ex-DC who are pretty left-wing (like Rosy Bindi back in her days).

It remains interesting and telling for other reasons but absolutely does not predict policy preferences or personal relations, yes.

It predicts a depressing amount of bullsh**t factional thinking however. Economic turboliberals calling each other comrades... is central Emilia just the Dąbrowa Basin with ravioli instead of pierogi? many people are saying this.

I think the levels of casual clientelism ouroboros practiced by your typical Dąbrowa Basin SLD (sorry, NOWA LEWICA) apparatchik may put even Sicilian politicians to shame sometimes, but basically yes.

Ah, but consider: did any Dąbrowa Basin party apparatchik ever do something as egregious as the Sack of Palermo [obligatory Al bait after the you bait of my previous post]?

You've got me there, maybe a bit further north in, say, Starachowice though. That said, how many Sicilians ever almost fell for con artists who pretended to be members of the Sovereign Military Order of Malta offering the city 40 million dollars they (obviously) didn't have in exchange for IOUs?

[Oryxslayer]

This poll showed up in my feed, and I actually like it a lot. Its a poll of party support by geographic region just with an additional step. PD+ is roughly evenly dispersed, FI and Lega are concentrated in the north as suspected, M5S is still strong in the south but FdI has surpassed them and will no doubt sweep a lot of the FPTP seats.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1562751236486856709?s=20&t=YCCoOBtEM...

[parochial boy]

Lazio fans actually less fash than I would have expected.

Shame there aren't any numbers for Livorno.

[Coldstream]

Lazio fans actually less fash than I would have expected.

Shame there aren't any numbers for Livorno.

I went to Livorno once and it struck me as the perfect place for 21st century RW populists to get power. History of working class movement, combined with huge decay, crumbling infrastructure and general poverty compared to Pisa & Florence. So it pleased me when I found out the left still hold firm there, shows that trends aren’t universal etc.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Lazio fans actually less fash than I would have expected.

Shame there aren't any numbers for Livorno.

I went to Livorno once and it struck me as the perfect place for 21st century RW populists to get power. History of working class movement, combined with huge decay, crumbling infrastructure and general poverty compared to Pisa & Florence. So it pleased me when I found out the left still hold firm there, shows that trends aren’t universal etc.

I don't have a sure explanation for this, but I think there's a level of "regional entrenchedness" of the mainstream centre-left and in addition Livorno has strong radical tendencies (incredibly high number of votes for the extraparliamentary far left recently). The post-industrial-ness has of course also manifested in great M5S results by regional standards - and it had a M5S mayor from 2014 to 2019 - which after all defines such places even better than right-wing populist strength.

Separately, I did not find Livorno to look especially bad? If you want a place with infamously crumbling infrastructure and a much bigger decline at least in population terms I know one that starts with G not too far of course.

[Oppo]

In fairness they struggle to remember themselves often.

Speaking of people who never know which side they are on, the latest from our old friend Clemente Mastella is apparently that he intends to go on a hunger strike if TV shows violate the rules of equal opportunities for all parties. I'm sure this is a principled stand that he would have taken otherwise and not just because his microparty is running alone this time after he was unable to complete a deal with any of the main coalitions.

Mastella is so goofy…I think it’s hilarious that he brought down Prodi’s government bc his wife was exposed for corruption and all parties refused to form an alliance with him (Berlusconi said polls showed he would lose 12% support lmao)
https://twitter.com/crazyitalianpol/status/1562742543741485056?s=21&t=HkjDw8...

[Coldstream]

Lazio fans actually less fash than I would have expected.

Shame there aren't any numbers for Livorno.

I went to Livorno once and it struck me as the perfect place for 21st century RW populists to get power. History of working class movement, combined with huge decay, crumbling infrastructure and general poverty compared to Pisa & Florence. So it pleased me when I found out the left still hold firm there, shows that trends aren’t universal etc.

I don't have a sure explanation for this, but I think there's a level of "regional entrenchedness" of the mainstream centre-left and in addition Livorno has strong radical tendencies (incredibly high number of votes for the extraparliamentary far left recently). The post-industrial-ness has of course also manifested in great M5S results by regional standards - and it had a M5S mayor from 2014 to 2019 - which after all defines such places even better than right-wing populist strength.

Separately, I did not find Livorno to look especially bad? If you want a place with infamously crumbling infrastructure and a much bigger decline at least in population terms I know one that starts with G not too far of course.

Perhaps it was just the juxtaposition of seeing Pisa & Florence in the same week, but to me it seemed like the whole city was crumbling. Don’t mistake me I think it’s a lovely place and I really liked it there! - I just thought it reminded me of Red Wall types in the UK.

One thing I also found odd is that in an undeniably left wing city, there were still statues of slaves in chains (I think Moors is how they are described on the statue). As someone who grew up in Bristol this seemed surprising!

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Lazio fans actually less fash than I would have expected.

Shame there aren't any numbers for Livorno.

I went to Livorno once and it struck me as the perfect place for 21st century RW populists to get power. History of working class movement, combined with huge decay, crumbling infrastructure and general poverty compared to Pisa & Florence. So it pleased me when I found out the left still hold firm there, shows that trends aren’t universal etc.

I don't have a sure explanation for this, but I think there's a level of "regional entrenchedness" of the mainstream centre-left and in addition Livorno has strong radical tendencies (incredibly high number of votes for the extraparliamentary far left recently). The post-industrial-ness has of course also manifested in great M5S results by regional standards - and it had a M5S mayor from 2014 to 2019 - which after all defines such places even better than right-wing populist strength.

Separately, I did not find Livorno to look especially bad? If you want a place with infamously crumbling infrastructure and a much bigger decline at least in population terms I know one that starts with G not too far of course.

Perhaps it was just the juxtaposition of seeing Pisa & Florence in the same week, but to me it seemed like the whole city was crumbling. Don’t mistake me I think it’s a lovely place and I really liked it there! - I just thought it reminded me of Red Wall types in the UK.

One thing I also found odd is that in an undeniably left wing city, there were still statues of slaves in chains (I think Moors is how they are described on the statue). As someone who grew up in Bristol this seemed surprising!

Oh for sure it is very different from Pisa and Florence. I guess the best comparison in the UK would be Liverpool (although Livorno is still not remotely as left-wing).

And yes I also saw the statue of the four enchained Moors. It certainly is a bit jarring... but I don't find it surprising - Statues Discourse has much less salience here.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Once again not that many polls this week - just six conducted since last Saturday. Pretty amazing when you consider we're 4 weeks away from the election and just 2 weeks away from the polling ban. Anyway, not much new under the sun.

FdI: 24.6%
Lega: 13.3%
FI: 7.9%
NM: 1.1% (1.6% when polled)
Total Right: 46.9%

PD: 22.5%
AVS: 3.2%
+E: 1.6% (1.9% when polled)
IC: 0.5% (0.8% when polled)
Total Center-Left: 27.8%

M5S: 11.1%

A-IV: 6.0%

Italexit: 2.7%

UP: 0.4% (1.2% when polled)

Compared to last week's average, the right is 0.1 down, the left is 2.2% down (f**king put a bullet in my head), M5S is 0.1 down, and A-IV is 0.6 up (please end it now). So surprisingly there are more undecideds than last week, although it might just be an artifact of the pollsters.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This is going to be an absolute bloody massacre isn't it?

[Antonio the Sixth]

This is going to be an absolute bloody massacre isn't it?

Oh yes, yes it is.

The margins really matter, though. With two thirds of the seats the right can unilaterally change the constitution without need for a referendum. And with about ~63% of the seats, there's a decent chance that Lega and FdI can have legislative majorities of their own without needing to consult with more "moderate" forces. Below that margin, the damages should be more contained, although either way it will be a dark time for Italy.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Of course, because the electoral system is absolute dogsh*t, we have no idea what popular vote margin would translate to what seat counts (there have been some estimates of the district-level results, but they're only worth so much). So we'll just have to find out in a month if democracy survives!

[CumbrianLefty]

Why is the right currently so insanely popular?

[Oryxslayer]

Why is the right currently so insanely popular?

More M5S is both seen as part of the left block after the past few years, but is not accepted as part of that alliance.

[palandio]

Yes, on average during the Second Republic the Right has always been a bit stronger than the Left. When there was still near-perfect bipolarism that meant on average more than 50% for the right-of-center bloc. The Five Stars managed to attract voters from both Left and Right, but a majority of their voters from the Right has now returned to the Right. Additionally of course there have been some movements between the blocs. The Right has attracted some votes from the Left (often the movement has been Left -> Five Stars -> Right), Renzi/Calenda have attracted some voters from both Right and Left, and the Left has attracted some voters from the Right. The Five Stars vote-wise by now draw mostly from the left-of-center genepool. So the Left in a wider sense in now split between the PD-led bloc, the Five Stars and Renzi/Calenda (who are not left-wing of course, but genepool PD).

Hence 47% for the main right-of-center bloc is not insanely high by pre-Five Stars standards.

What has changed is the distribution of the right-of-center vote itself. Both FdI and Lega are arguably more right-wing than Forza Italia.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why is the right currently so insanely popular?

More M5S is both seen as part of the left block after the past few years, but is not accepted as part of that alliance.

Basically what happened is that the M5S broad #Populist coalition of 2018 really did transcend ideological cleavages in a lot of ways. To considerably simplify, about half of it was "right-wing" populists who defected to Salvini during the years of the yellow-green government, and then to Meloni since Salvini started making a fool of himself. Meanwhile, the "left-wing" half of the party has largely remained (there has been some flow back to the left, and indeed PD is polling 5 points or so above its 2018 numbers, but not nearly as much). So we are indeed left in a situation where the broad "left" of the Italian political spectrum is split while the right is united.

There's also a general sense that the right deserves to have "its turn" in power, under the pretext that PD was in government in some form or another since 2011 except for the brief yellow-green interlude. Which is silly, of course, because in all of these governments except for the equally brief yellow-red interlude, it was in coalition with elements of the right. But still, for better or worse, the PD is perceived as the incumbent while the right is perceived more as the challenger. And, of course, this is a very anti-incumbent time for Italy.

[Oppo]

New projections out for the Chamber of Deputies…the CdX has a 99.4% chance of winning a majority

https://twitter.com/sbidimedia/status/1563892738793275392?s=21&t=gHXPeMUUmuQ...

[palandio]

New projections out for the Chamber of Deputies…the CdX has a 99.4% chance of winning a majority

https://twitter.com/sbidimedia/status/1563892738793275392?s=21&t=gHXPeMUUmuQ...

At first I wanted to say that it would have made more sense to order the seats from left-leaning to right-leaning instead of from "most competitive" to "least competitive" for a variety of reasons, but then I noticed that with a few ecceptions for Scandicci, Florence and Bologna the order wouldn't change all that much.

[Oppo]

https://twitter.com/nickwhithorn/status/1564235401669271553?s=21&t=MAzbjwcg0...

[Zinneke]

Lazio fans actually less fash than I would have expected.

Shame there aren't any numbers for Livorno.

Tbh I am more surprised Atalanta are so right-wing ( have seen Che flags in their sector, and their friendship with Eintracht Frankfurt), but all this shows is that Ultras and hools deform the political perception of a club's fanbase in 90 per cent of cases. Livorno are probably an exception in that respect, with other clubs like Sankt-Pauli, Rayo Vallecano where you have to be blind not to see the club is political in itself. But I see with my club that there is a massive difference between the political ideology of one or two dominant supporters groups and the rest of the fanbase, I see it in places like Charleroi, Eupen (right-wing hard cores with otherwise probably left-voting fanbase) too.

[Lord Halifax]

The margins really matter, though. With two thirds of the seats the right can unilaterally change the constitution without need for a referendum.

what sort of constitutional changes would they like?

[Antonio the Sixth]

The margins really matter, though. With two thirds of the seats the right can unilaterally change the constitution without need for a referendum.

what sort of constitutional changes would they like?

The main thing they've been talking about is "presidentialism" - which would entail directly electing the President and almost certainly increasing its powers beyond the largely ceremonial role it currently holds. Berlusconi has always been a fervent proponent of that, and in the even of such a reform he'd almost certainly run for the job (whether he'd win is a whole other question). Salvini and Meloni have also been supportive of the idea, so it's pretty much a guarantee if they have a supermajority.

On top of that, it's very likely that Salvini would insist on some provision for "fiscal autonomy" for regions (which would obviously benefit the rich Northern regions, are they're the one with the large tax bases to make use of it). This might be tempered by the need to keep some degree of support in the South, but only to some extent. Berlusconi is very likely to support some this given his own base of support, and Meloni likely will too.

There might also be some efforts to rein in the power of the judiciary, as that has also been a longtime battle cry of the right, but given the recent failure of the referendums in that sense I'm not sure how much appetite there is for it now.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

For the most part it would be a return to how things were the last time they were in charge, which, well,  was substantially responsible for the complete mess the country has been in (is still in) subsequently...

[crals]

So the combined total of the PD and friends, Conte and Renzi/Calenda is not too far away from the right-wing alliance, but they might hand them a two thirds majority nonetheless thanks to egos and the very questionable electoral system. How depressing.

[palandio]

So the combined total of the PD and friends, Conte and Renzi/Calenda is not too far away from the right-wing alliance, but they might hand them a two thirds majority nonetheless thanks to egos and the very questionable electoral system. How depressing.

I mean there are reasons for the split that go beyond egos.

Others have complained that the PD is treated like it has been governing alone for the last decade. And yes, it's unfair. But the PD is the only (the only stable one at least) party that has defended the state and its institutions again and again, over and over. The amount of self-identification with the institutions and the self-image as "the only adults in the house" (despite all the infighting) is maybe what keeps the main part of the PD and its remaining voter base together despite all the infighting. The PD is identified with the state to a degree that most other parties in the world are not.

On the other hand no European country has seen the same amount of stagnation and relative impoverishment as has Italy. (You can make a point for Greece during the last 13-14 years, but before that Greece was growing fast. Italy has been shrinking for a long time.) The permanent crisis has hit hard on significant parts of the traditionally left-wing voter base. And large parts of the PD have been unable to find an answer that would convince them.

Now there is a cleavage between the Five Stars on one side and the PD on the other side, with Calenda/Renzi taking the PD position on steroids to a degree that they again seem almost opposition-like. The Five Stars are the expression of impoverishment, both in the South and in working-class neighborhoods of the North and Center. Their political ineffectiveness doesn't really change that.

The problem is that the Italian center-left (in a broader sense) and its voter base don't have a common political vision that would go beyond keeping the Right out of power.