Trump approval ratings thread 1.2

[Statilius the Epicurean]

51/42 think he's mentally unbalanced.

But Trump's a 50/50 shot to win re-election guys

[Statilius the Epicurean]

If someone says Trump isn't mentally unbalanced, they're clearly primed to rationalize a reason to vote for him the second they get the chance to do so. Questions like that are actually more telling than straight approval/disapproval or straight favorable/unfavorable. Remember, he had a 38-60 favorability rating in the 2016 exit poll and still got 46% of the vote.

Because he was running against someone with 41/54 favourable/unfavourable on the day of the election, which is not much better. Swing voters had an unfavourable view of both Clinton and Trump, so why would you have expected them to vote against the latter? The voters you're talking about "rationalised" a vote for Trump because his opponent had been under investigation by the FBI...
 

[Statilius the Epicurean]

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I don't think this will be the case for any potential Democratic nominee outside of maybe Elizabeth Warren.

Obama was subject to a four year-long smear campaign and kept his favourabilities in the 50s, so the excuse for Clinton that any Democratic nominee would have had equally bad favourabilities is simply wrong.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Gallup, 10/31

Approve 35 (+1)
Disapprove 61 (-1)

Looks like around 33% could be his absolute floor at this current point in time. Not that that isn't super low as it is, though.

Or that the 33% was an outlier.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

The indictments actually HELPED him???

No I'd say it hurt him but only during the small time period where the news was completely dominated by it. It really does seem like Trump has hit his floor (35 - 38%), which may or may not be temporary. At this point the only thing that could allow it to stabilize at a number in the low 30s (or lower) might be time, in the sense that years go by and nothing gets done and his supporters continue to see no movement on issues Trump promised to solve, and/or passing very unpopular policies that even he can't defend.

I think the indictments definitely helped considering they had nothing to do with Trump or any actions done during the campaign.

Except the indictment of one of his foreign policy advisors for lying to the FBI about contacts with Russian agents during the campaign?

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Love people ITT looking for meaning in the random walk of a daily tracking poll

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Gallup (November 11th)

Approve 39% (+1)
Disapprove 55% (-2)

Why is he up? You think its the strong economy?

Trump gets poll boosts during tours abroad as he looks presidential

[Statilius the Epicurean]

North Carolina: Elon University, Nov 6-9, 771 RV

Approve 37
Disapprove 57

R 81/10, I 35/56, D 8/92

Gov. Roy Cooper: 49/30
Sen. Richard Burr: 31/40
Sen. Thom Tillis: 28/41

NC ->Safe D

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Carter 28% (June 1979)
GHW Bush 29% (July 1992)

Trump is going to be a one term president. I don't care what happened in 2016.

I still don't get why people act like 2016 proved approval numbers don't matter. All it proved was that if you take one unpopular candidate and pit them against another unpopular candidate, one will win, and not necessarily the one that is only slightly less unpopular.

As far as I am concerned, if Trump is as unpopular as he is now (or even slightly less so), he's not going to win reelection. If he faces off against someone who is fairly popular and clean, ethics-wise, most people who strongly disapprove of him will not vote for him again and those who only somewhat disapprove will probably defect in smaller but not insignificant numbers as well.

That's a fairly big if though. Popular and competent presidential candidates don't grow on trees and the Democratic Party is rather divided at the moment. Squeaky-clean Carter was cruising in the polls in 1976 and then said something dumb in a Playboy interview and all of a sudden the race is competitive again.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

15 points behind on the congressional ballot with Dems over 50%. RUH ROH.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Looking at the 538 tracker Trump hasn't been above 40% since the aftermath of the Comey firing (was at 42/52 on 8th May and dipped to 39/55 by the 19th), his best being 39.7% on the 25th September following the good coverage from Hurricane Irma. I suspect those voters might be unreachable now barring some gamechanging foreign policy crisis. How could Trump realistically win them back next year?

[Statilius the Epicurean]

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I want the crack those people are smoking.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

But Republican pols are starting the barrage of laudatory praise of this President... and it sounds like a totalitarian personality cult.

This guy just signed a gigantic tax break for Republican congressmen. Of course they love him.  

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I think Trump has hit bottom. If he gets Obamacare finally repealed/replaced and real spending cuts (not holding my breath there) done in the first half of 2018, prepare for 50-60% approval.

Not holding your breath is a sound idea.  Neither of those has a chance of passing.

It also isn't in line with why people disapprove of Trump. It's not policy-related. On top of that, America isn't currently clamoring for cuts to social programs or crappier healthcare. Even if Trump's intense character deficits, perceived corruption and generally dishonest nature weren't turning so many people against him, I don't get why chronically unpopular policy proposals would suddenly right the ship.

I'm saying a middle 20% or so that don't hate him (or like/love him) will shift his way if those things get done, all just because he'll be "getting stuff done" and appear to be finally "draining the swamp". 

How would passing a historically unpopular healthcare bill improve his approval ratings by 20 points??

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I think Trump has hit bottom. If he gets Obamacare finally repealed/replaced and real spending cuts (not holding my breath there) done in the first half of 2018, prepare for 50-60% approval.

Not holding your breath is a sound idea.  Neither of those has a chance of passing.

It also isn't in line with why people disapprove of Trump. It's not policy-related. On top of that, America isn't currently clamoring for cuts to social programs or crappier healthcare. Even if Trump's intense character deficits, perceived corruption and generally dishonest nature weren't turning so many people against him, I don't get why chronically unpopular policy proposals would suddenly right the ship.

I'm saying a middle 20% or so that don't hate him (or like/love him) will shift his way if those things get done, all just because he'll be "getting stuff done" and appear to be finally "draining the swamp". 

How would passing a historically unpopular healthcare bill improve his approval ratings by 20 points??

Ask Obama. More the spending cuts and HOW healthcare is reformed too.  This really isn't a bold prediction.

Obama's approval ratings were remarkably static throughout his presidency so I'm not sure he's a good model for Trump.

And the point is that Trump is so unpopular right now with the middle 20% because of the healthcare and tax reform bills he's supported. And touching entitlements, something which is just as unpopular and what doomed W Bush's presidency, won't gain him 20 points either.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Gonna be hilarious in 2019 when Trump is celebrating a 30% approval rating from Rasmussen on Twitter.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Just because a southerner/mid-westerner disapproves of Trump doesn't mean they won't hold their nose and vote for him against a candidate whose views are way outside the regional mainstream.

That's true; but all things being equal, Trump can't afford to lose more than a few thousand votes from his 2016 total in those key rust belt states. And if the Democrats pick a candidate who is less unpopular than Hillary Clinton was with moderates and millennials, Trump will likely need to gain votes from people who didn't support him in 2016, not just hold onto his base.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Also policy positions don't matter. The only thing that matters is messaging and image. There is literally zero substantive difference between Kamala Harris and Joe Biden on social issues but the former is "far-left" and the latter isn't. Lots of voters thought Trump was a moderate because of the way he talked despite running on the most substantively conservative platform ever. 

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Just because a southerner/mid-westerner disapproves of Trump doesn't mean they won't hold their nose and vote for him against a candidate whose views are way outside the regional mainstream.

That's true; but all things being equal, Trump can't afford to lose more than a few thousand votes from his 2016 total in those key rust belt states. And if the Democrats pick a candidate who is less unpopular than Hillary Clinton was with moderates and millennials, Trump will likely need to gain votes from people who didn't support him in 2016, not just hold onto his base.

Yeah but the Dems have a few candidates including Kamala Harris (arguably the front runner) who might be a considerably worse fit than Hillary was in those states.

In what world is Harris the front runner? And jeesh who knows if she would be or not. Few people in 2006 thought America was ready to elect a black man as President two years later, but it happened because Obama crafted a killer narrative as the post-racial uniter (and where was Trump in 2014?). No reason why Harris couldn't do something similar.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Trump's problem is twitter. His approval rating tracks the frequency with which he tweets embarrassing unpresidential takes on current events.