Trump approval ratings thread 1.2

[junior chįmp]

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[Dr. Arch]

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Ohhh... it's starting to get really ugly now.

[KingSweden]

A *quarter* of Republicans?!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Rasmussen also has a daily tracker that I don't pay a lot of attention to, because Ras is a lousy pollster (538 rates them C+ with a bias of R+2.0) and because it's generally very boring; they use a 5-day rolling average, which really smooths it out.  But I do check on it occasionally, and there seems to be some interesting movement this week.  For the last couple of months it's been exceptionally stable, but this week there has been a gradual decline, which would echo what's been seen in other polls.

Last week (they don't release data on weekends):

Mon: 42/56
Tue: 43/55
Wed: 42/56
Thu: 44/55
Fri: 42/56

That was fairly typical of the last several weeks.  But this week:

Mon: 42/56
Tue: 41/57
Wed: 41/57
Thu: 41/57
Fri: 40/57

Approval has been below 40 in this poll only during a 4-day stretch of 38 or 39 from July 31-Aug 3, and has previously been exactly 40 only on Aug 16-17. 

[Statilius the Epicurean]

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I want the crack those people are smoking.

[LimoLiberal]

https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2017/12/15/new-poll-has-bill-schuette-up-3-points-over-gretchen-whitmer-2018-governors-race/956521001/

Wow. This poll makes me think Michigan in 2016 was a complete fluke - Trump approval rating underwater 61-37.

It's pretty clear that unless something changes quick, there's going to be pretty large gains in the midwestern states that swung heavily towards trump. Two new polls from Iowa and Michigan, showing trump approval -25 and -24 respectively. In states he won (albeit Michigan narrowly).

[GeorgiaModerate]

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I want the crack those people are smoking.

My neighbor, a diehard Trumpist, was trying to tell me the same thing a few days ago.  I laughed so hard I almost fell down.

[KingSweden]

Those Michigan and Iowa polls are making me feel much better about McCaskill and Donnelly, so long as they get their voters out like bonkers.

The Midwest is realllly elastic

[junior chįmp]

Under budget and ahead of schedule:

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[pbrower2a]

Updated for Michigan:

Before I set out on  my project, I get a poll on a state of which I made an allusion: Tennessee.  If  Donald Trump simply made a fool of himself in Alabama by supporting Roy Moore, then that would not appear in Tennessee as well. But if there is a trend in the Mountain and Deep South (western Tennessee and southern Alabama are Deep South, and eastern Tennessee and northern Alabama are Mountain South) altogether, then Tennessee should be drifting away from Trump and the GOP. Tennessee used to be one of the most progressive of the Southern states, and one of my favorite pols (Al Gore) was a US Senator in Tennessee.  It's one state, but it does have an open Senate seat in 2018 and an attractive Democratic candidate to fill it. Ten electoral votes are not trivial, either.

Vanderblit-Tennessee: 48% approve -47% disapprove

I can also add an update for Michigan, a state in which the bare win of Donald Trump looks like about as much a fluke as a six-game winning streak for the Detroit Cocker Spaniels baseball team will be in 2018 (I expect the Tigers to lose 100+ games next year):

In other results, 61% gave President Donald Trump a negative job approval rating, while 37% gave him a positive one. In August, Trump's unfavorable-favorable numbers were 56% to 36%.

Of those polled, 47% said Trump is mentally stable, while 42% said he is mentally unstable. Those numbers were 45% to 43% in August.

https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2017/12/15/new-poll-has-bill-schuette-up-3-points-over-gretchen-whitmer-2018-governors-race/956521001/
[/quote]

The contest shows both the leading Democrat and Republican with numbers in the 30s, which is completely useless for predicting anything. In 2008 I had a poll for Tennessee in which Obama had a lead over McCain in Tennessee. Obama actually led something like 39-37. Obama did not get more than the 37% that he had in that poll in the election in Tennessee that year.
 
This approval map shows  electoral votes to the states on the approval map.

Trump approval, net positive

55% or higher
50-54%
44-49%

Ties are in white.

Trump approval, net negative

44-49%
40-45%
39% or lower

But raw disapproval numbers appear instead  of electoral votes here:

Disapproval (net negative for Trump) :

55% or higher
50-54%
44-49%

Ties are in white.

(net positive for Trump)
46-49%  
41-45%
40% or lower

[pbrower2a]

Here is the 2017 map of Cook PVI.  With a 50-50 split of the popular vote, a PVI of D+6 (Connecticut) means that the Democrat can expect to get 56% of the popular vote from Connecticut and that a PVI of R+9 (Indiana) indicates that one can reasonably expect the Republican to win 59% of the popular vote in Indiana. Districts of Maine and Nebraska are shown as their Congressional districts vote for members of Congress. DC? I'm guessing that the Democrat is going to win about 90% of the vote in just about any election, so that is about D+40.  

Color and intensity will indicate the variance from a tie (ties will be in white) with  in a 50-50 election with blue for an R lean and red for a D lean. Numbers will be shown except in individual districts

int      var
2        1-4%
3        5-8%
5        9-12%
7        13-19%
9        20% or more

DC -- way out of reach for any Republican.

ME-01 D+8
ME-02 R+2

NE-01 R+11
NE-02 R+4
NE-03 R+27

(data from Wikipedia, map mine)

Map for recent polls (please -- no comments yet!)

From November 7 on.


Exit polls from last night. VA 40/57, NJ 36/63.

You can hardly be more definitive than with an exit poll.

Gallup had 38/55 nationally on November 7.
Arkansas 47.5-45.5, Talk Business/Hendrix University (round up both)
California USC/Dornsife 22-66 Nov 7 (superseded)

NC, Elon 37-57 Nov 9
Alabama 53-45 Fox News (superseded)
Colorado 64% unfavorable (superseded -- and a favorability poll, so I don't need it)
California, PPIC 34-63, likely voters
Minnesota, 31-54, Survey USA
Iowa, 35-60 Selzer. Des Moines Register
Alabama, 48-48. Exit poll. One could hardly be more definitive.
Tennessee, Vanderbilt University. 48-47

][gh=== ...  iki

(The cat just walked upon my keyboard).

Michigan, EPIC-MRA. 37-61.

The Florida poll was from October, and the Colorado poll is from PPP (56% disapproval).

For the newest of these polls, I use 199-DIS as a reasonable ceiling for the Trump vote in 2020. Thus:

Lightest shades are for a raw total of votes that allows for a win with a margin of 5% or less; middle shades are for totals with allow for wins with 6 to 10% margins; deepest shades are for vote percentages that allow wins of 10% or more. Numbers are for the projected vote for Trump.   

100-DIS gives a reasonable ceiling for Trump in 2020 -- at least the most suitable one that I can think of. He may have won Iowa by nearly ten points, but he would be crushed there if an election were to be held there today. The recent poll suggests that the President has disappointed Iowa voters very much.
   

[pbrower2a]

https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2017/12/15/new-poll-has-bill-schuette-up-3-points-over-gretchen-whitmer-2018-governors-race/956521001/

Wow. This poll makes me think Michigan in 2016 was a complete fluke - Trump approval rating underwater 61-37.

It's pretty clear that unless something changes quick, there's going to be pretty large gains in the midwestern states that swung heavily towards trump. Two new polls from Iowa and Michigan, showing trump approval -25 and -24 respectively. In states he won (albeit Michigan narrowly).

Consistent with what I have sen in rural Michigan. Republicans are bailing from him in Michigan.

Even Indiana looks in play now. 

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2017/12/15/new-poll-has-bill-schuette-up-3-points-over-gretchen-whitmer-2018-governors-race/956521001/

Wow. This poll makes me think Michigan in 2016 was a complete fluke - Trump approval rating underwater 61-37.

It's pretty clear that unless something changes quick, there's going to be pretty large gains in the midwestern states that swung heavily towards trump. Two new polls from Iowa and Michigan, showing trump approval -25 and -24 respectively. In states he won (albeit Michigan narrowly).

I don't think it was exactly a fluke. Just a combination of things: desperate people who both personally disliked Hillary (for reasons both understandable and less-so) and who didn't see her campaign actually offering them anything, a poor campaign by Clinton herself, and those desperate people with little real choice buying enough of Trump's con job to vote for him.

Now, Hillary is (mostly) out of the equation, and Trump has been exposed as insane, incompetent (predictably failing to deliver on his concrete promises to his voters) and a willing tool for the billionaire class.

[junior chįmp]

Interesting tidbit here: When Democrats run commericals about the GOP tax plan and how the GOP plans to cut Medicare/Medicaid/Welfare....the Democratic midterm advantage goes from +11% to +17%:

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GOP is done!

[Badger]

Interesting tidbit here: When Democrats run commericals about the GOP tax plan and how the GOP plans to cut Medicare/Medicaid/Welfare....the Democratic midterm advantage goes from +11% to +17%:

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GOP is done!

So a push poll ....

[Landslide Lyndon]

Interesting tidbit here: When Democrats run commericals about the GOP tax plan and how the GOP plans to cut Medicare/Medicaid/Welfare....the Democratic midterm advantage goes from +11% to +17%:

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GOP is done!

An advertising firm produces a poll that shows their advertising works brilliantly!
How surprising.

[Holmes]

Interesting tidbit here: When Democrats run commericals about the GOP tax plan and how the GOP plans to cut Medicare/Medicaid/Welfare....the Democratic midterm advantage goes from +11% to +17%:

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GOP is done!

An advertising firm produces a poll that shows their advertising works brilliantly!
How surprising.

Huzzah. Obviously Democrats should run in health care and the tax scam.

[GeorgiaModerate]

AP/NORC, Dec 7-11, 1020 adults (change from Sept-Oct poll)

Approve 32 (nc)
Disapprove 67 (nc)

Strongly approve 15 (-5)
Strongly disapprove 51 (+1)

The shift in strong approval is interesting; it looks like Trump's support is softening.

[junior chįmp]

Interesting tidbit here: When Democrats run commericals about the GOP tax plan and how the GOP plans to cut Medicare/Medicaid/Welfare....the Democratic midterm advantage goes from +11% to +17%:

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GOP is done!

An advertising firm produces a poll that shows their advertising works brilliantly!
How surprising.

Didn't work in 2016

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup, 12/15

Approve 34 (-1)
Disapprove 61 (+1)

[forgotten manatee]

Gallup, 12/15

Approve 34 (-1)
Disapprove 61 (+1)

It seems like it is the tax bill machinations that are bringing him down, similar to the Obamacare repeal debate and very unlike the drip drip drip of the Russia investigations. The tax debate and the Obamacare repeal effort expose Trump as a sham populist. If the GOP's next target is the social safety net, Trump's approval is going to fall below 30%.

[super6646]

Updated for Michigan:

Before I set out on  my project, I get a poll on a state of which I made an allusion: Tennessee.  If  Donald Trump simply made a fool of himself in Alabama by supporting Roy Moore, then that would not appear in Tennessee as well. But if there is a trend in the Mountain and Deep South (western Tennessee and southern Alabama are Deep South, and eastern Tennessee and northern Alabama are Mountain South) altogether, then Tennessee should be drifting away from Trump and the GOP. Tennessee used to be one of the most progressive of the Southern states, and one of my favorite pols (Al Gore) was a US Senator in Tennessee.  It's one state, but it does have an open Senate seat in 2018 and an attractive Democratic candidate to fill it. Ten electoral votes are not trivial, either.

Vanderblit-Tennessee: 48% approve -47% disapprove

I can also add an update for Michigan, a state in which the bare win of Donald Trump looks like about as much a fluke as a six-game winning streak for the Detroit Cocker Spaniels baseball team will be in 2018 (I expect the Tigers to lose 100+ games next year):

In other results, 61% gave President Donald Trump a negative job approval rating, while 37% gave him a positive one. In August, Trump's unfavorable-favorable numbers were 56% to 36%.

Of those polled, 47% said Trump is mentally stable, while 42% said he is mentally unstable. Those numbers were 45% to 43% in August.

https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2017/12/15/new-poll-has-bill-schuette-up-3-points-over-gretchen-whitmer-2018-governors-race/956521001/

The contest shows both the leading Democrat and Republican with numbers in the 30s, which is completely useless for predicting anything. In 2008 I had a poll for Tennessee in which Obama had a lead over McCain in Tennessee. Obama actually led something like 39-37. Obama did not get more than the 37% that he had in that poll in the election in Tennessee that year.
 
This approval map shows  electoral votes to the states on the approval map.

Trump approval, net positive

55% or higher
50-54%
44-49%

Ties are in white.

Trump approval, net negative

44-49%
40-45%
39% or lower

But raw disapproval numbers appear instead  of electoral votes here:

Disapproval (net negative for Trump) :

55% or higher
50-54%
44-49%

Ties are in white.

(net positive for Trump)
46-49%  
41-45%
40% or lower













[/quote]

It looks as if Trump still is treading water in PA and WI, abeit narrowly. How the hell is Trump less popular in Iowa though? Some of those sunbelt states (North Carolina and Florida) are pretty ugly though.

[pbrower2a]

Older polls or polling data.

There was plenty of polling data that Morning Consult dumped a few months ago, and that is the latest that I have for most states -- and that poling skewed somewhat R.

The newest data looks like outliers compared to the idea that the 2020 election would be somewhat close, as was the 2012 election.

When I see polls suggesting that Trump is about dead even in Alabama (a state that no Democratic nominee for President has won since 1976) and then see a poll suggesting much the same for Alabama, then I have no cause to dismiss such with the word "outlier" -- especially when I see horrid polls for Trump in states like Florida and North Carolina.  When Iowa and Michigan come in in near-tandem with disapproval ratings of 60 and 61, then I am tempted to draw conclusions about states that usually vote with those states.  No way is Iowa a runaway for a Democratic nominee for President unless Minnesota and Wisconsin are also runaways. No way is Michigan a runaway for a Democratic nominee for President unless Pennsylvania is also a runaway. Florida and Ohio generally vote together; they will not be 10% apart.  Likewise, an old bit of polling data that suggests that Georgia is about dead-even in approval and disapproval looks dated when Alabama polls suggest that the 2020 election map might be a "crimson tide", at least in Atlas colors.

I do not have enough recent polling to have any idea of how some states will go. I need a poll of Texas to be able to predict how Texas would go. There's just no good analogue for Texas, which straddles regions. I can say nothing about the High Plains states. I can say that Donald Trump is so unpopular (and we all know why) would lose decisively to just about any Democrat. Any Republican connected to this President's agenda will be soiled.

Outliers happen.  If I saw a disapproval rating for President Trump at 47%  while such states as Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania show disapproval ratings near 60%, then I would now see a 47% approval in Ohio as an outlier.  The rating that I saw for Iowa looked like an outlier until I saw a poll suggesting much the same for Michigan.

I can say at this point that it is highly unlikely that Donald Trump will be re-elected as President in a free and fair election. Indeed I now think it more likely that Donald Trump would win a rigged election than win a fair election.  

  
    

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Gallup, 12/15

Approve 34 (-1)
Disapprove 61 (+1)

What
Down it goes! Air Claire gettin her step back!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Lucid Public Opinion weekly survey, Dec 12-13, 866 adults

Approve 34 (-1)
Disapprove 52 (+2)