WV-SEN 2024: Manchin out, Justice for All

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am not saying we are gonna win WVA, MT and OH, we lost the PVI in 22 and still kept the S, and won KS GOV and 3 Biden is likely to win the PVI in 2024 and OH, MT and WVA can split it's votes just like KS GOV did

It depends on what we end up with,  and TX Senate is more in play than FL unless DEMINGS or Graham runs, if John Loves is completetive we may not win TX but it can split it's votes with Sen and Prez

Users forgot Kemp Warnock, Ryan DeWine, Johnson and Evers and how did Tester and Manchin win 2012 and Obama won the PVI 51/47 Romney won MT and WVA and Tester and Manchin both won, it all depends on Border wall, WVA pipeline and extended tax cuts until 2025 in the Debt Ceiling

[BloJo94]

I hope Paula Jean Swerengin runs again.

[2016]

I am not saying we are gonna win WVA, MT and OH, we lost the PVI in 22 and still kept the S, and won KS GOV and 3 Biden is likely to win the PVI in 2024 and OH, MT and WVA can split it's votes just like KS GOV did

It depends on what we end up with,  and TX Senate is more in play than FL unless DEMINGS or Graham runs, if John Loves is completetive we may not win TX but it can split it's votes with Sen and Prez

Users forgot Kemp Warnock, Ryan DeWine, Johnson and Evers and how did Tester and Manchin win 2012 and Obama won the PVI 51/47 Romney won MT and WVA and Tester and Manchin both won, it all depends on Border wall, WVA pipeline and extended tax cuts until 2025 in the Debt Ceiling

There will be almost ZERO Ticket Splitting in a Presidential Year. In 2020 the only State that had significant Ticket Splitting was in Maine where Susan Collins prevailed.

If Trump or DeSantis are carrying West Virginia, Montana and Ohio then the Republican Candidate for Senate will also prevail.

Keep in mind that the new Chair of the National Republican Senatorial Cmte is Steve Daines and he is from you guessed it MONTANA.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well guess what Andy Beshear won in 2019 and he has a 60% approvals in the same state Trump won by 20, it's early, there are zero polls but in 2012 guess what Manchin and Tester won and the PVI was Obama plus 4 51/49 and Romney easily won MT and WV but Obama won OH there is evidence of ticket splitting on Prez yrs 2012

I believe in blue waves you know I do John Love is gonna beat Ted Cruz and give us a 52/48 Senate as well as the H based on NY, but it's early it's nothing but fundraiser except for KY Gov and Rs are gonna win LA GOV but we are gonna win KY

Don't forget NC Cooper won and Biden and Cunningham lost in 2020 that's split voting too

John Love III IS THE SECOND COMING OF COLIN ALRED HE PROMISES TO GIVE CRUZ A FIGHT ITS ON HIS CAMPAIGN WEBSITE

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We need polls and we don't have any just remember there is ticket splitting plenty of it and Romney easily carried WVA and MT 2012 and Tester and Manchin both won, and Rosedale and Rehnberg already lost to Tester and Rosendale whom is thinking about running whom is a los


Johnson won in a blue state and buck party trends, Barnes was the Fav 2016 forgot that Tester and Manchin already did it in 2012

And Brown and John Love can win as I said I rather have Colin Aldred

[Frodo]

Likely R.

Should Democrats even help Manchin after all the crap he let them go through the past few years?

I hate to say it, but cut him loose. Not because he's betrayed us so many times, but because he has no chance and would only take money away from more winnable races.

I want him to run simply to divert GOP resources from other competitive senate races.

I won't be crying when he loses.

^^^^

Manchin could serve the role Tim Ryan did in Ohio this year.  It would be his last -and greatest- service he could render to the Democratic Party in 2024, and could be instrumental in enabling us to perhaps even keep the Senate that year.  By all means, we should help him, if for no other reason than to keep the National Republican Senatorial Committee spending valuable resources on a Senate race in a safe Republican state in Appalachia of all places.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Likely R.

Should Democrats even help Manchin after all the crap he let them go through the past few years?

I hate to say it, but cut him loose. Not because he's betrayed us so many times, but because he has no chance and would only take money away from more winnable races.

I want him to run simply to divert GOP resources from other competitive senate races.

I won't be crying when he loses.

^^^^

Manchin could serve the role Tim Ryan did in Ohio this year.  It would be his last -and greatest- service he could render to the Democratic Party in 2024, and could be instrumental in enabling us to perhaps even keep the Senate that year.  By all means, we should help him, if for no other reason than to keep the National Republican Senatorial Committee spending valuable resources on a Senate race in a safe Republican state in Appalachia of all places.

T Ryan wasn't a Pragmatic he is just as liberal as Brown and OH isn't PA where it's gonna vote for 2 liberal Dems

[Alben Barkley]

I'm just gonna say it: I think he can win again.

I think the Rs have completely and totally maxed out WV, and already had by 2016 for that matter. All the evidence points to this; there has just been a mild D trend there ever since. Manchin won in 2018 anyway. Does this mean he is definitely going to win again? No. But he is by no means out, and I'd actually give him better odds than I would have Tim Ryan earlier this year. People who think otherwise underestimate just how strong a brand Manchin is unto himself in West Virginia, and how strongly his popularity defies the odds (as it does for Beshear in KY; believe it or not such things actually still matter in this region). I actually think it might largely come down to the national environment: If it's a good year for Dems, he could win again. If a bad year, he probably goes down. But thinking of this race as Likely to Safe R is folly IMO.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm just gonna say it: I think he can win again.

I think the Rs have completely and totally maxed out WV, and already had by 2016 for that matter. All the evidence points to this; there has just been a mild D trend there ever since. Manchin won in 2018 anyway. Does this mean he is definitely going to win again? No. But he is by no means out, and I'd actually give him better odds than I would have Tim Ryan earlier this year. People who think otherwise underestimate just how strong a brand Manchin is unto himself in West Virginia, and how strongly his popularity defies the odds (as it does for Beshear in KY; believe it or not such things actually still matter in this region). I actually think it might largely come down to the national environment: If it's a good year for Dems, he could win again. If a bad year, he probably goes down. But thinking of this race as Likely to Safe R is folly IMO.

Beshear is competitive in KY and it's an R plus 20 state like WV we must wait for the KY Gov results before we assumed Mnchin is DOA we were supposed to have 200 H seats 229 we're Safe R according to COOK and Sabato, Stella

When are users gonna wait until 2023 when the results are for KY Gov to wait to call WV SEN, in addition in some polls Biden is 50/50 like D internals Greenberg always had the GCB 51/47 D

It's good to go against the grain we need 218/217 and 51/4.9 S to end the Filibuster it's not a midterm it's a Prez race last time we got 80/75M in a Prez race in 2020 Rs the PVI this time but failed in WI, MI and PA , and you live in KY and you know KY is an R plus 20 state, McConnell won by 20 just like WVA if Beshear can win 23 so can Manchin in 24 and there are no POLL

[MargieCat]

Likely R.

Should Democrats even help Manchin after all the crap he let them go through the past few years?

I hate to say it, but cut him loose. Not because he's betrayed us so many times, but because he has no chance and would only take money away from more winnable races.

I want him to run simply to divert GOP resources from other competitive senate races.

I won't be crying when he loses.

^^^^

Manchin could serve the role Tim Ryan did in Ohio this year.  It would be his last -and greatest- service he could render to the Democratic Party in 2024, and could be instrumental in enabling us to perhaps even keep the Senate that year.  By all means, we should help him, if for no other reason than to keep the National Republican Senatorial Committee spending valuable resources on a Senate race in a safe Republican state in Appalachia of all places.

I feel the same way about Montana and Ohio.

All 3 are automatic flips without Manchin, Tester, and Brown. If the GOP is spending money in those, it's money not being spent in MI, PA, WI, AZ, and NV.

[Person Man]

He could win if Biden wins. In fact, Obama had a worse map and ended up gaining. If Democrats are becoming better organized in rural and suburban areas, even if the urban base starts staying at home, as this election has illustrated, there is a path to keep the senate if Biden wins.

[BloJo94]

Treasurer Riley Moore is running to replace Mooney in the House.https://twitter.com/MillerStanIL/status/1594533493874098176

[WV222]

Still waiting on Justice, Morrisey, McCuskey, and Warner for their intentions for 2024

[BloJo94]

https://twitter.com/ChrisRoseWV/status/1593653643093360640?cxt=HHwWgICyue_i5Z0sA...

[ꙮ]

https://twitter.com/ChrisRoseWV/status/1593653643093360640?cxt=HHwWgICyue_i5Z0sA...

If he makes it to the general he loses by at least 30 points, probably more than 40.

[MT Treasurer]

WV Gov. Jim Justice (R) is "seriously considering" a bid against Manchin:

Justice was asked about a possible U.S. Senate run during Tuesday’s virtual briefing with reporters from the Capitol.

“From the standpoint of attention on my mind, I’m absolutely thinking really hard about it and very seriously considering running for Senate,” Justice said. “I have not made a final decision yet, but I promise you, regardless of whatever I do, I’ll be your governor for the next two years. I’m not just going to sit around and hang out. I don’t believe in that.”

Justice was asked about a possible Senate run in September by The Intelligencer when he was in Wheeling campaigning against Amendment 2, a constitutional amendment on the November ballot that would have allowed the West Virginia Legislature to eliminate six categories of tangible personal property taxes. Justice told reporter Joselyn King at the time that he was a maybe.

https://www.theintelligencer.net/news/top-headlines/2022/11/gov-justice-seriously-considering-u-s-senate-run-in-2024/

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's gonna be a 51/49 Senate anyways we can afford to lose 1 seat but it's 2 yrs till Eday

I will never underestimate Brown, Manchin or Tester since they won in both 2012/18

[windjammer]

I think this Seat is gone

[Tekken_Guy]

WV Gov. Jim Justice (R) is "seriously considering" a bid against Manchin:

Justice was asked about a possible U.S. Senate run during Tuesday’s virtual briefing with reporters from the Capitol.

“From the standpoint of attention on my mind, I’m absolutely thinking really hard about it and very seriously considering running for Senate,” Justice said. “I have not made a final decision yet, but I promise you, regardless of whatever I do, I’ll be your governor for the next two years. I’m not just going to sit around and hang out. I don’t believe in that.”

Justice was asked about a possible Senate run in September by The Intelligencer when he was in Wheeling campaigning against Amendment 2, a constitutional amendment on the November ballot that would have allowed the West Virginia Legislature to eliminate six categories of tangible personal property taxes. Justice told reporter Joselyn King at the time that he was a maybe.

https://www.theintelligencer.net/news/top-headlines/2022/11/gov-justice-seriously-considering-u-s-senate-run-in-2024/

Jim Justice is going to be 73. Why would he be the top pick for Senate?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think this Seat is gone

Lol do you know Eday is two yrs from now it's nowhere near 24 yet and Ds are gonna do better with Biden on the ballot Manchin and Tester and Brown all won in 2012/2018

Users act like Eday is yesteryear and inflation is gonna be 7% in 24 Biden Approvals aren't going down they going up Biden is leading Trump 51(49 in FL where DeSantis win by 20 and Warnock is leading if the Approvals were going down Trump would be leading in FL and Walker winning, wait for awhile before polls come out pollsters are obsessed with Prez primary that's why they keep polling

It's a 303 map anyways but it's 4.2 unemployment Incumbents especially D Incumbents as we saw with Johnson have a better chance of survival as Johnson did better than Michels because he was an incumbent and Brown is gonna do better than Ryan because Brown as a 3*Incumbents

[Kabam]

The Republican primary seems to likely become a complete clown car.

[brucejoel99]

It's so Joever:

https://twitter.com/jimjusticewv/status/1595150847318454272

[Mr. Smith]

I do hope Justice is in, Manchin  is probably  done and he's closer to McKinley than Mooney. Probably the best we can expect get.

[Brittain33]

Not only is Justice 73, he’s a rough 73. I wouldn’t count on him to serve a full term in his physical shape.

[Kung Fu Kenny]

Justice's long con was to switch parties so he could beat Manchin and then switch back to Democrat after he gets elected and reveal himself as a Bernie Sanders clone