Realized I haven't made a prediction in my own thread:
In many ways, China is following the Taiwanese/South Korean model of political development. The early stages were dominated by one-man/one-party dictatorships, later gradually liberalizing to the point that genuine democratic elections were made possible in forty years, but not before Taiwan and South Korea had become industrialized and developed countries in the 1960s and '70s. It is not out of the question that by 2020, China should have become politically liberalized enough that democratic elections could be held. The 'Great Recession' that is occurring world-wide could well hasten this process, particularly if India grows at a higher rate than China.
Why would India growing faster than China lead to democracy? If that is what you were trying to say.
Economic pressure on the government. The greater the pressure on the Chinese government, the greater the incentive to relieve that pressure through the introduction of democracy. (I suspect China would be a one-party dominant political state similar to 1950s-1990s Japan for at least a generation in any case, so they would retain power.)
Well, yes. But Frodo's
premise was that India would be gaining ground on China. My point wasn't that this would happen but that, if it did happen, China would have strong pressure for democratic reforms.
As it is, I agree with Frodo and others that China is likely to institute at least nominal democracy within the next few decades, perhaps as a part of a reunification agreement with Taiwan but more likely on its own (then later leading to reunification). The reason is not likely, at least on its own, to be India and the growth of the Indian economy, although I wouldn't rule out completely an Indian surge. The reason is likely to be internal discontent over economic conditions followed by rapid growth of the high-end economy as the world economy recovers. I disagree with Sam Spade on this point: bad economic times lead to more freedoms and more democracy, not less (although the extremely immediate impacts can't be denied).
Poll
