Realized I haven't made a prediction in my own thread:
In many ways, China is following the Taiwanese/South Korean model of political development. The early stages were dominated by one-man/one-party dictatorships, later gradually liberalizing to the point that genuine democratic elections were made possible in forty years, but not before Taiwan and South Korea had become industrialized and developed countries in the 1960s and '70s. It is not out of the question that by 2020, China should have become politically liberalized enough that democratic elections could be held. The 'Great Recession' that is occurring world-wide could well hasten this process, particularly if India grows at a higher rate than China.
Why would India growing faster than China lead to democracy? If that is what you were trying to say.
Economic pressure on the government. The greater the pressure on the Chinese government, the greater the incentive to relieve that pressure through the introduction of democracy. (I suspect China would be a one-party dominant political state similar to 1950s-1990s Japan for at least a generation in any case, so they would retain power.)
I wouldn't count on it. India's an economic wreck, on one hand lacking the government vigour to establish necessary infrastructure (instead wasting money through corruption and ineffective gasoline subsidies) and then in some areas of regulation and policy actually granting less economic freedom than in China.
Poll
