Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15

[Tender Branson]

My quick guess what the German results today mean for the Austrian election:

The results are good news for:

* the Kurz-ÖVP. Kurz, unlike Merkel, was able to decouple himself significantly from the incumbent government role and runs virtually as an outsider and he also didn't make the mistake of losing voters to the Far-Right - but rather made a huge push to attract them.

* the FPÖ, which can point to the AfD being successful.

* the liberal NEOS, who can point to the Lindner/FDP-surge (Lindner will also campaign personally for NEOS in Austria over the next weeks)

* surprisingly, the Greens - who can point to the good Green result in Germany

The results are very bad news for:

* the SPÖ, with their last hope being that the "Kern-Effect" will be much stronger than the "Schulz-train". But considering the Schulz-train had a massive engine failure today, it is likely that the SPÖ follows suit and will experience a Kernschmelze (= nuclear meltdown).

The results are neither good nor bad for:

* List Pilz
* Communists

[mvd10]

Damn, your prediction that the ÖVP will outperform the CDU/CSU probably will come true. Congrats

[Tender Branson]

Damn, your prediction that the ÖVP will outperform the CDU/CSU probably will come true. Congrats

Kurz could give the CSU in Bavaria (prediction right now: 38.5%) a run for the money ...

[Tender Branson]

"Elephant" debate (the only one with all 6 major candidates) will start on PULS 4 in 40 minutes:

https://www.puls4.com/live-551

[Tender Branson]

"Elephant" debate (the only one with all 6 major candidates) will start on PULS 4 in 40 minutes:

https://www.puls4.com/live-551

Really good and lively debate so far. They are already referencing the German election.

[Tender Branson]

"Elephant" debate (the only one with all 6 major candidates) will start on PULS 4 in 40 minutes:

https://www.puls4.com/live-551

Really good and lively debate so far. They are already referencing the German election.

Currently they are debating tax cuts, introducing inheritance taxes and taxing large international companies.

Liberal Strolz (NEOS) to the left-populist Pilz:

"I don't know where you got your degree, but it was probably the Karl Marx Institute."

[TheSaint250]

"Elephant" debate (the only one with all 6 major candidates) will start on PULS 4 in 40 minutes:

https://www.puls4.com/live-551

Really good and lively debate so far. They are already referencing the German election.

Currently they are debating tax cuts, introducing inheritance taxes and taxing large international companies.

Liberal Strolz (NEOS) to the left-populist Pilz:

"I don't know where you got your degree, but it was probably the Karl Marx Institute."

Daaaaaaaaang

[mvd10]

Boom!

But playing the Marx/Communism card usually is a sign that said liberals/conservatives are in trouble.

[Tender Branson]

Boom!

But playing the Marx/Communism card usually is a sign that said liberals/conservatives are in trouble.

Maybe, or maybe not. Strolz (like Lindner) is always very feisty in debates and interviews.

PS: Kurz "won" the elephant debate by 1% ahead of Kern. Strache was 10% behind. Pilz and Strolz performed well relative to their current 5% in the polls.

[Tender Branson]

After decades, the Austrian Army will get new, modern NATO-style uniforms + helmets next year.

They will have a special camouflage design, which deflects infrared nightvision. The new uniform is also flame-retarding, especially tearproof and breathable.



(In the middle: the old uniform)

[Tender Branson]

New Kurz/ÖVP posters:

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[Tender Branson]

The new Ö24/Research Affairs poll shows the FPÖ surging to the highest level in 2 months:



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/wahl2017/Umfrage-OeVP-klar-vorne-FPOe-holt-auf/301515462

The Austrian center-left is heading off the cliff ... (not really a surprise, because I think voters will deliver a message of protest against the Chancellor and the Greens for being too soft on the migrant issue).

Compared with the same pollster 2 months ago, the ÖVP is unchanged, the FPÖ gains 3%, the SPÖ gains 2% and NEOS gains 1%. The Greens lost 2%, Pilz also 2% and G!LT also lost 2% and is now just listed under "others" anymore.

In total, the center-right now has 66% (ÖVP+FPÖ+NEOS+FLÖ), while the center-left has 34% (SPÖ+Greens+Pilz+KPÖ).

Just like Bavaria.

[rob in cal]

  Those Kurz posters look like ads for some hip and trendy product, like a new mens razor, a boutique hotel, or a cell phone.

[Tender Branson]

There's another new poll today (NEWS Magazine/Matzka Research):



Projected turnout:

80% - I will definitely vote
13% - I will probably vote
  3% - I will probably not vote
  2% - I will definitely not vote
  2% - Undecided/no opinion

(turnout is usually very similar to those who say they are certain to vote ...)

[Tender Branson]

The 3rd poll today ...

... by Unique Research, for "Heute" newspaper and "ATV" (n=1500, Sept. 21-28, mix of phone and online):

34% ÖVP
27% SPÖ
25% FPÖ
  4% Greens
  4% NEOS
  4% Pilz
  2% Others

Turnout: 79% (people who say they are certain to vote)

Link

[MAINEiac4434]

New Kurz/ÖVP posters:

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Getting a real Bateman-y vibe.

[Tender Branson]

Austria's face cover ban will take effect on Sunday (October 1) and it will ban the Burqa, Niqab and Abaya, as well as balaclavas, clown masks, Krampus masks and medical masks (unless you have a medical certificate).

Exceptions are for times of culturual events (which means Krampus masks can be worn in December and clown masks for Carnevals, or if your profession is "Clown". There are also exceptions for construction workers, motorcycle drivers with helmets, firefighters etc. who need to wear masks as protection. Another exception is cold temperatures.

Anyway, this new law is mostly targeting Arab immigrants and tourists - a lot of them here in Zell am See (I guess some 30% of Arab tourist women have their face fully covered).

Police will enforce the law vigorously here and ask fully covered women to take down their veil. If they refuse, they will be fined 150€. If they are stopped again, they will be arrested and taken to the police station and indicted. Payments can be made in cash or with credit/bank card.

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https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2017/09/27/austria-becomes-latest-european-country-ban-burqas-but-adds-clown-face-paint-too/699273001

http://www.bmi.gv.at/bmi_documents/2090.pdf

[Tender Branson]

The major economic institutes have updated their economic forecasts today:

GDP growth 2017: Bank Austria 3.0%, WIFO 2.8%, IHS 2.6% (GDP was up by 2.9% in the first half)

GDP growth 2018: Bank Austria 2.1%, WIFO 2.8%, IHS 2.1%

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Inflation: around 2%

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Unemployment: slightly down

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Budget deficit: 0.9%

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Debt as % of GDP: 78.5% this year, 76.1% next year

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http://orf.at/stories/2409004/2409012

B-A Link

[Tender Branson]

The following is not relevant for the election as a whole, but for the battle of the right-wing voters:

There was a 2 hour TV debate between Kurz and Strache recently on Ö24 TV. For this, you have to know that Ö24 and it's TV channel are Kurz and Strache-leaning in the first place and the tabloid is also very trashy. Those watching are ca. 90% FPÖ-voters and Ö24 is recruiting viewers on Strache's Facebook account. So, virtually, this debate can be compared to a Trump/Cruz debate on Breitbart TV ...

Anyway, it still is a good indicator of how Kurz does with FPÖ-voters (considering the viewers are 90% FPÖ-voters).

And surprisingly, Ö24 did a (representative) post debate poll:

Who won the debate ?



By gender



Which candidate was ...

* more competent
* clearer on the issues
* more statesmanlike
* likeable
* knowledgeable
* trustworthy
* funnier
* Chancellor-material



Better on the economy ?



Better on taxes ?



Better on immigration and refugees ?



Better on social justice issues ?

[Tender Branson]

On Sunday:

Regular 5-year municipal elections in the state of Burgenland (= town councils and mayors will be elected).

This election won't serve as an indicator for the parliamentary election in 2 weeks though: Burgenland is the smallest state and on the municipal level is dominated by the SPÖ (45-50%) and the ÖVP (45%). The FPÖ and Greens are only running in a handful of cities.

The only major surprise would be if the ÖVP could somehow overtake the SPÖ there ...

[Tender Branson]

Meanwhile, I have finally decided that I will vote for Kern (and only reluctantly for the SPÖ) in this election. While I had some problems with their policy on immigration in the past, I still agree with their other (social) policies a lot more than what other parties have to offer. Kurz is a good guy, but like with the SPÖ, I don't like the party behind him (which has been in power for the past 35 years). I guess a vote for the SPÖ in this election will be a lost vote, because I think Kern and the SPÖ will lose the election and will go into opposition. But I will not become an ÖVP-FPÖ enabler. NEOS, another option I considered, is too neo-liberal on the issues for my taste. Besides, last year a good family friend of my mom (and me) died of cancer at the age of 75. She was a solid SPÖ-voter and I will dedicate my vote to her.

[palandio]

If I were Austrian, I would probably be undecided between SPÖ and Pilz. What are your reasons to back SPÖ over Pilz, Tender?

[Tender Branson]

Uh-oh ...

The FPÖ hits a new high in todays Spectra poll for the OÖN, with 27%, while the SPÖ drops to 22%.

The ÖVP is still ahead by 6% though.

[Tender Branson]

New FPÖ poster campaign:

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[Tender Branson]

Interesting thought:

If we assume that neither of the small parties (Greens, NEOS, Pilz) make it into parliament (3.99% each) and the ÖVP gets 34%, the SPÖ 26% and the FPÖ 26% - then a coalition of ÖVP-FPÖ would get some 70% of seats in parliament, which would be a supermajority and a constitution-changing government ...