GA-06 and SC-05 election day & results thread

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Oooooooh, he lost the early vote in Fulton, terrible sign.

If you read earlier posts you'd know the mail in ev is the dem one and its not in

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More votes came in SC and the Dem went up more....

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Norman now only leads Parnell by 80 votes!

Where are you watching results for SC?

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/south-carolina-house-special-election

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Massive swing to the Democrats in SC 05. That's pretty amazing.

yeah but according to Taniel from Daily Kos, 2 of the 3 reporting counties are the most heavily pro-Dem and afro-american.

GOP is underpermoing in York County by about 6% so far compared to the 2016 congressional race if i did the math right

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Early returns in Union county which Mulvaney won is going for Parnell too

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Nearly 40% of the vote in and Parnell is leading by 3% in SC-05 lol

Yet none of heavily Republican Cherokee county is in.

Yet the GOP in the district has been seriously under-performing their stronghold counties here.  I assume the Dem loses but were going to have some really interesting swings

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Dem doing 9 points better in Spartansburg county than 2016 first precint (Still a massive gop margin but thats still a major swing)

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It's all about Chester.

Yea gop got 52% in the binary vote their in the congressional race in 16 if i did the numbers on nyt right

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Could Parnell actually win?

Unlikely but will be much closer than I thought

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SC-5 is down to just York, where Norman already has a lead.  We're good there!

I dont think id be celebrating under performing that badly in SC-05 of all places

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Can Dems apply some of Parnell's overperformance to Ossoff to help him win?

If Democrats did more to try to help Parnell, he would have done worse.

Agreed

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Georgia will swing toward Republicans from Trump's 2016 number.  So much for that Democrat wave.  

By this logic the Dems will sweep SC in 2018 and 2020

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Say what you want about the district or either of the candidate's respective campaigns, but the fact that Dems will likely come up short in GA-06 bodes very, very badly for the Dems going into 2018.  The fact that so many Democrats, from top to bottom, were so invested in this race is going to sting for a long time and will negatively impact recruitment, fundraising and energy going forward.

Say what you want about the race being close, but a loss as a loss and it will be Karen Handel, not Ossoff, in all likelihood heading to DC.  This isn't the Olympics, second place doesn't mean anything in politics.  

lol

GOP brought all their heavyweights to campaign for Handel. Ossoff only brought John Lewis.

R's can try to spin this all they want, but at the end of the day, these are massive swings for Democrats. On top of that we have strong recruitment and fundraising has already topped last year numbers.

Dems spent 30 million in a district Trump won by 1%.

That's not good.

Your ignoring PVI and comparing apples to oranges you should be comparing the congressional results not the presidential results.

Dems shouldnt have nationalized this race

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If Democrats think they're going to be taking the House in 2018, this is a district they'll likely need to win.  This is supposed to be their brand new "winning coalition" of educated whites.  Epic fail.

No its not this would be a dems having a 50 seat majority seat

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If Democrats think they're going to be taking the House in 2018, this is a district they'll likely need to win.  This is supposed to be their brand new "winning coalition" of educated whites.  Epic fail.

No its not this would be a dems having a 50 seat majority seat

False

LOL ok well your posts in this thread so far have been insubstansive a so not sure why i continue to bother to reply but if i was head of the DCCC this would be on the extra seat list to take the house.  Actually i think dems need to focus on the rust belt and parts of Appalachia for 2018, in particular WV-2,3 and I think its KY-6 (the one in eastern kentucky dems had til 2012).

The seat has an R+8 PVI and the SC seat is actually imo much more alarming for the GOP considering it should not have swing much at all it should be an inelastic rural southern seat unless im missing some unique faceat of this district.

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I guess dems will have to wait until the NJ or VA gubernatorial elections for any big wins, sad night for them.

I will say Pelosi should retire, the GOP has used her in so many dark money sponsored ads and is quite effective, it is literally their most effective strategy other than fear mongering like the scalise shooting ad.

We massively closed margins in SC-05 im more excited for 2018 after tonight than before it

Dems screwed up GA-06 pretty easily in retrospect by nationalizing it they should have swept it under the radar

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Pass what legislation...the Dems havent been able to pass anything since 2010

Yeah after they lost control of the House. Don't be a 5 year old.

And they lost the house because of Nancy Pelosi

Pelosi needs to step aside and train a new guy her so called parliamentary genius then

lol, how was it Pelosi fault?

Because shes red meat for the GOP base. Nothing gets the geezers out of the mobile home park and to the voting booth than sticking Pelosi's face on an attack ad

These people would give up SS and Medicare to get Pelosi out of office

lol, they lost their majority because of the ACA and Obama backlash.

Serously, stop trying to revise history.

Pelosi:

Disliked by 100% of Republicans, 75% of independents, and 50% of Democrats

Hey, let's keep her on because she knows like parliamentary stuffs

I like pelosi but this isnt wrong

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Is it fair to say that if he looses tonight it's because Ossoff was a pussy who should've gone more negative?

Definitely an aspect but dems nationalizing it is a larger one

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On balance, the trend for the Democratic Party is still positive. Remember, the SC result has about the same weight as the GA 06 result, and would have more impact in the House swing. The base would have been happy with a win, but I don't think this was again, a bad night, for Democrats. Losing GA 06 by 6 and losing SC by 15 would have been bad. Losing GA 06 by 2 and losing SC by 3 is not a bad night at all.

Mixed, yeah, but the trend remains positive for the Democratic Party.

Are you supporting the Dems now?

I dont think decent analysis regardless of ones party id makes one biased to either party.  If the dem list in SC by more than 5 id be fairly demoralized

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Democrats had to nationalize the race, that was their best play.  This is a Republican district.  Tying Handel to Trump was the right move, just wasn't enough.

Handel was a horrid canidate and nationalizing it made the trump types come out en masse it seems, no it was a stupid strategy that backfired.  Dems need to refocus on a mixed strategy and invest heavily in some rural areas that are ancestrally dem.

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I knew something like this was coming. Republicans gerrymander. Everyone does. Not one gives a s*** about fairness when you can give your party control of the country.

The Democrat party gerrymandered us from the 1960s thru 1994 and they are squealing when we retaliate.

Every time

Its not right when Dems do it and its not right when GOP does it

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Damn, I really hoped Ossoff would've pulled it off.


Just to give the Republicans a spook.

Every single special election should still give GOP a spook. If this is the same strategy, then 2018 is looking bad

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The people who swung heavily to the Dems in 2006/2008 Congressional races are no longer willing to, because muh culture war. Country is too polarized.

This isnt a good post or reaction we gained a ton in margins in both seats vs congressional 2016 results, not naitonalizing seats and running actual local candidates would probably help in seats like GA-06