If a Justice Democrat succeeds in primarying out Manchin, this race goes from Likely D to Likely R in my book.
Agreed, and if that happens, boy am I going to be...somewhat disgruntled. Progressive purists are going to throw away our chances at taking back Congress for the sake of having candidates that match their ideology, rather than candidates who best match their constituency and have the best chance of winning. I'm actually pretty glad the DCCC threw them a huge middle finger with their decision on pro-life Democrats.
Needless to say, if the purity test ends up killing Manchin, Democrats can kiss Congress goodbye for the next while. Geography is their biggest weakness, so they need moderates like Manchin to appeal to deeply red areas to even have a majority. Even with a decent bunch of those guys, Democrats don't have a majority.