WV-SEN 2018: Haunted Manchin
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  WV-SEN 2018: Haunted Manchin		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: WV-SEN 2018: Haunted Manchin  (Read 143814 times)
I Can Now Die Happy
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« Reply #1250 on: October 23, 2018, 09:29:19 PM »
if Morrissey somehow wins, it just shows that Trump is so awesome that he was able to carry a guy like that over the edge
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1251 on: October 23, 2018, 10:24:49 PM »
Quote from: NYC Millennial Minority on October 23, 2018, 09:29:19 PM
if Morrissey somehow wins, it just shows that Trump is so awesome that he was able to carry a guy like that over the edge

1. What do you mean somehow? The path for Morrisey is very clear and likely.

2. Wow, it would be such a brute demonstration of miraculous force and strength for a Republican to win in an R+20 federal race that was the second biggest percentage mov for Trump in the union, and trading back and forth between first and second state with the highest approval of Trump. Plus, don't act like Manchin is some spotless opponent for Morrisey either. Morrisey has a lot, and I mean A LOT of heavy ammo he could use (figuratively) against Joe, who honestly has pretty lame approvals himself, and honestly for the GOP, it's pretty pathetic that this race is still close, and Trump hasn't helped Morrisey run away with it yet (though he might, there is still plenty of time). As I see it, the window of plausibility has it between a 15 point Morrisey win to an 8 point Manchin win, but if Trump was truly talented, he'd be pulling Morrisey to 2012 presidential levels in WV.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1252 on: October 24, 2018, 01:14:10 AM »
Pretty good article on the state of the race now. It pretty much sums up what I'm thinking about it right now.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2018/10/23/race-for-the-senate-2018-key-issues-in-west-virginia/
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1253 on: October 24, 2018, 03:19:18 PM »
That's it, last straw for me, I'm writing Manchin off. Here's to hoping we can at least pull off upset wins in Indiana and Missouri, and keep our favored race positions in AZ and NV. Hopefully we maintain footing in Montana as well, and grab the house. If we can, it will still be a good night.
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Politician
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« Reply #1254 on: October 24, 2018, 03:20:25 PM »
Quote from: Prolocutor Bagel23 on October 24, 2018, 03:19:18 PM
That's it, last straw for me, I'm writing Manchin off. Here's to hoping we can at least pull off upset wins in Indiana and Missouri, and keep our favored race positions in AZ and NV. Hopefully we maintain footing in Montana as well, and grab the house. If we can, it will still be a good night.
What part of "Morrissey internal" don't you understand?
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1255 on: October 24, 2018, 03:21:18 PM »
Quote from: Politician on October 24, 2018, 03:20:25 PM
Quote from: Prolocutor Bagel23 on October 24, 2018, 03:19:18 PM
That's it, last straw for me, I'm writing Manchin off. Here's to hoping we can at least pull off upset wins in Indiana and Missouri, and keep our favored race positions in AZ and NV. Hopefully we maintain footing in Montana as well, and grab the house. If we can, it will still be a good night.
What part of "Morrissey internal" don't you understand?

Look at the 538 weighting, they barely even weighted it unlike the previous GOP internals.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1256 on: October 24, 2018, 03:26:12 PM »
Nice having you around for a while Joe, but it looks like WV is on board the #Joegottago train.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1257 on: October 25, 2018, 11:36:19 AM »
Pretty good ad

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VBT48FeLFf0
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1258 on: October 27, 2018, 01:33:32 PM »
Trump will be stopping in WV before the election again

https://www.greatfallstribune.com/story/news/2018/10/26/president-donald-trump-plans-fourth-trip-montana-ahead-mid-terms/1779981002/

very good boon for Morrisey.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #1259 on: October 27, 2018, 02:09:08 PM »

No, that’s the other WWC #populist Purple heart state...
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #1260 on: October 27, 2018, 02:09:57 PM »

Trump's visited WV a bunch and it hasn't hurt Manchin at any point. Why would it hurt him now?
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1261 on: October 27, 2018, 02:14:32 PM »

Read past the headline

"According to Bloomberg, Trump will hold rallies in Montana, West Virginia, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Tennessee, Georgia and Florida over six days next week. "
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1262 on: October 27, 2018, 02:15:53 PM »

I've been hearing that this time it will be in WV 3rd while in the past he has been going farther north, and this is also much closer to the election, so this will be fresh in the minds of voters, and increased partisanship will be at play.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #1263 on: October 27, 2018, 07:03:10 PM »
Quote from: Prolocutor Bagel23 on October 27, 2018, 02:14:32 PM
Read past the headline

"According to Bloomberg, Trump will hold rallies in Montana, West Virginia, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Tennessee, Georgia and Florida over six days next week. "

Ah, I see. I actually did read past the headline, but missed that part.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1264 on: October 28, 2018, 01:14:33 AM »
Pretty sh!tty numbers for Manchin

https://www.wdtv.com/content/news/Total-numbers-for-the-first-day-of-early-voting-in-WV--498596791.html
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #1265 on: October 28, 2018, 01:19:38 AM »

What has been said 5,239,395,404,186 times? Don't read too much into early vote.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1266 on: October 28, 2018, 01:20:49 AM »

Except these numbers match the fundamentals. He is the second most vulnerable senator besides Heitkamp who is nearly doa at this point.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1267 on: October 29, 2018, 03:39:07 PM »
This race is eerily quite, like the calm before a storm... I'd like to see some decent polling which has been absent for a while.
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #1268 on: October 29, 2018, 03:41:01 PM »
what? dems have a major advantage in this.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1269 on: October 29, 2018, 07:14:46 PM »
Trump headed to Huntington on November 2nd, probably to deliver the nail in the political coffin of Ojeda and Manchin
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #1270 on: October 29, 2018, 07:27:08 PM »
Quote from: Prolocutor Bagel23 on October 29, 2018, 07:14:46 PM
Trump headed to Huntington on November 2nd, probably to deliver the nail in the political coffin of Ojeda and Manchin



Senator Roy Moore and Congressman Rick Saccone agree that Trump rallies doom Democrats.
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mcmikk
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« Reply #1271 on: October 30, 2018, 04:25:56 PM »
Quote from: Fremont Speaker ON Progressive on October 29, 2018, 07:27:08 PM
Quote from: Prolocutor Bagel23 on October 29, 2018, 07:14:46 PM
Trump headed to Huntington on November 2nd, probably to deliver the nail in the political coffin of Ojeda and Manchin



Senator Roy Moore and Congressman Rick Saccone agree that Trump rallies doom Democrats.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1272 on: October 30, 2018, 07:58:13 PM »
Pretty bold thing to say with confidence

http://wvmetronews.com/2018/10/30/analyst-manchin-likely-to-win-us-senate-contest/
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McGovernForPrez
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« Reply #1273 on: October 30, 2018, 09:50:51 PM »
It's really not. You are the only person on this site to think Republicans can win this. Even many of the R hacks think this race is out of reach.
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Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
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« Reply #1274 on: October 30, 2018, 09:55:42 PM »
Quote from: McGovernForPrez on October 30, 2018, 09:50:51 PM
It's really not. You are the only person on this site to think Republicans can win this. Even many of the R hacks think this race is out of reach.
Seriously, why is Bagel so weirdly delusional about the state of this race? Manchin has been leading by double digits for a while.
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