WV-SEN 2018: Haunted Manchin

[Heisenberg]

Manchin works very well with Trump, plus West Virginia is an odd state as it votes solidly Republican in presidential elections, yet keeps electing Democrats as Governor/Senator. Capito is the first Republican Senator since the New Deal, but 2014 was a huge Republican year.

Chapman Revercomb?

[Heisenberg]

Jenkins still has my enthusiastic support. Morrissey is an HP.

This. For sure. I really like Jenkins and he is way stronger. Morrisey winning hands over the AG seat to the Democrats and can help rebuild their bench in WV. He's also a carpetbagger from New Jersey who even ran for NJ-07 in the past, while Jenkins is a native West Virginian. And Jenkins' "the Democratic Party left me" message should play really well in West Virginia.

[Heisenberg]

Jenkins still has my enthusiastic support. Morrissey is an HP.

This. For sure. I really like Jenkins and he is way stronger. Morrisey winning hands over the AG seat to the Democrats and can help rebuild their bench in WV. He's also a carpetbagger from New Jersey who even ran for NJ-07 in the past, while Jenkins is a native West Virginian. And Jenkins' "the Democratic Party left me" message should play really well in West Virginia.

Are you referring to winning the primary or GE?

Winning the general, unless he resigns after (hypothetically) winning the primary (which would be stupid).

Jenkins still has my enthusiastic support. Morrissey is an HP.

This. For sure. I really like Jenkins and he is way stronger. Morrisey winning hands over the AG seat to the Democrats and can help rebuild their bench in WV. He's also a carpetbagger from New Jersey who even ran for NJ-07 in the past, while Jenkins is a native West Virginian. And Jenkins' "the Democratic Party left me" message should play really well in West Virginia.

Good points. There is no doubt that Jenkins is a formidable candidate. That's why I would be ecstatic if Morrisey won the primary and faced Manchin.

The only possibility worse than Morrisey is Mooney. His carpetbagging was way worse (at least Morrisey waited a decade, established himself in West Virginia, and he never served as State Party Chair or RNC Delegate in NJ, to my knowledge). And look at these hypothetical polls. Jenkins did the best, Mooney even loses by 10 to Carte Goodwin.

[Heisenberg]

Yeah, they need to deport that conniving beaver either to the moon or back to Mexico.

Who, Mooney? You mean back to Maryland, right?

Morrisey is in. Sad!

Sad, but expected. I hope Jenkins destroys him in the primary.

[Heisenberg]

According to an article from the National Review, Morrisey is likely to attack Jenkins on his 2008 support for Hillary Clinton and his previous 2,000 donation to Joe Manchin in 2008. That could be horribly problematic for Jenkins.

I can sort of understand the past Joe Manchin support (he HAS changed his positions, and state politics ≠ national politics), but Hillary Clinton? That may hurt. Still hope he wins the primary and general, don't want a Democratic AG, and, more importantly, young fresh blood for WV Democrats.

[Heisenberg]

Can someone elaborate on why one Republican would give Manchin fits and the other one would be toast?  I know nothing about these candidates.

Simple. Morrisey is way more fiscally conservative than Jenkins, and West Virginia is not that fiscally conservative, it's more Democratic "at heart," especially in downballot races. Also, Morrisey has strong New Jersey roots, and Jenkins is a lifelong WV resident. I could go on and on, but I think by now this should be obvious.

[Heisenberg]

New WV MetroNews poll: Manchin up 10% against Jenkins.

Not new, this is the same one that already has its own thread.

[Heisenberg]

Breaking news: Steve Bannon endorses Patrick Morrisey.

Odd. Jenkins strikes me as the "Trumpier" candidate being an ex-Dem and all

Jenkins is more establishment, regardless of his policies or party history.

Right, but Jenkins is known to be populist on the issues, and that, and his status as a former Dem plays really well in WV. Saying "I'm more conservative" will NOT help in a WV primary. Also, Morrisey is a former lobbyist, ran for Congress in NJ in 2000, and used to work for Christine Todd Whitman, a VERY liberal Republican. I'd like to see what his policies are. Maybe he's evolved (especially since he's picked up Bannon's endorsement). We'll see, but I think Jenkins is more electable, and I'm sticking with him, at least for now.

[Heisenberg]

Morrisey had higher recognition, no surprise (he's statewide while Jenkins only represents 1/3 of the state). Jenkins needs to step it up, there's still time for him to get ahead and take the lead. I hope he wins, he's a better fit, and is way more West Virginia than Morrisey.

[Heisenberg]

Manchin flirted with dropping out, citing annoyance with the Senate and Democratic disrespect for moderates, but is running for reelection.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/23/us/politics/manchin-reelection-this-place-sucks.html

Manchin isn't moderate he's a conservative party line liberal.

Fixed that for you.