WV-SEN 2018: Haunted Manchin

[Greedo punched first]

John Raese is even less likely than Morrisey to defeat Manchin. Safe D if Raese gets the nomination. Will Raese run in 2018?

[NewYorkExpress]

Unless Republicans do something stupid and nominate John Raese, Manchin will be in for the fight of his life. Tilt R with Jenkins, Tilt D with Morrisey.

[_]

Morissey SHOULD lose the primary badly, Jenkins would make it tossup, Moriseey Lean D.

[swf541]

Morrissey is one step above Mooney tier lol

[The Other Castro]

Morrisey looks like he's hunting kids at 57 seconds into his video:

https://patrickmorrisey.com/media/

[_]

Morrisey looks like he's hunting kids at 57 seconds into his video:

https://patrickmorrisey.com/media/

Dear god that voice is creepy.
Nowhere near as good as Jenkins' first ad.

[GlobeSoc]

My ideal scenario would be Jenkins losing the primary, Morrisey losing the GE and ojeda picking up WV-03, and then Morrisey being damaged by oppo coming out during the senate campaign and losing the AG seat in 2020.

[henster]

Maybe some rating can be done here.

[Young Conservative]

According to an article from the National Review, Morrisey is likely to attack Jenkins on his 2008 support for Hillary Clinton and his previous 2,000 donation to Joe Manchin in 2008. That could be horribly problematic for Jenkins.

[Heisenberg]

According to an article from the National Review, Morrisey is likely to attack Jenkins on his 2008 support for Hillary Clinton and his previous 2,000 donation to Joe Manchin in 2008. That could be horribly problematic for Jenkins.

I can sort of understand the past Joe Manchin support (he HAS changed his positions, and state politics ≠ national politics), but Hillary Clinton? That may hurt. Still hope he wins the primary and general, don't want a Democratic AG, and, more importantly, young fresh blood for WV Democrats.

[Cactus Jack]

My ideal scenario would be Jenkins losing the primary, Morrisey losing the GE and ojeda picking up WV-03, and then Morrisey being damaged by oppo coming out during the senate campaign and losing the AG seat in 2020.

The fact that the above scenario is actually completely plausible amazes me. It's astounding what sort of downballot aftershocks an ill-advised announcement like this can have.

[Mike Thick]

This is going to be quite the barn-burner. Very reminiscent of some 2010 races, in some ways.

[RINO Tom]

Can someone elaborate on why one Republican would give Manchin fits and the other one would be toast?  I know nothing about these candidates.

[jamestroll]

I can sort of understand the past Joe Manchin support (he HAS changed his positions, and state politics ≠ national politics), but Hillary Clinton? That may hurt. Still hope he wins the primary and general, don't want a Democratic AG, and, more importantly, young fresh blood for WV Democrats.

Disregarding everything else, why the hell would you care who is the Attorney General of West Virginia?

Can someone elaborate on why one Republican would give Manchin fits and the other one would be toast?  I know nothing about these candidates.

I do not know much about Morrisey but the conventional wisdom is that because Jenkins represents West Virginia-03, an area of the state that often propels successful Democrats to victory, Jenkins would be an unbeatable titan and Manchin would have no chance.

Of course electoral politics is usually not that simple.

[Mike Thick]

Can someone elaborate on why one Republican would give Manchin fits and the other one would be toast?  I know nothing about these candidates.

I think it's largely because Morrissey has... charisma issues.

[Heisenberg]

Can someone elaborate on why one Republican would give Manchin fits and the other one would be toast?  I know nothing about these candidates.

Simple. Morrisey is way more fiscally conservative than Jenkins, and West Virginia is not that fiscally conservative, it's more Democratic "at heart," especially in downballot races. Also, Morrisey has strong New Jersey roots, and Jenkins is a lifelong WV resident. I could go on and on, but I think by now this should be obvious.

[PragmaticPopulist]

If I were Manchin, I'd be hoping Morrisey is my opponent. Like was said before, Morrisey is a more traditional free market Republican, and West Virginia is not a pro-free market state. Jenkins would seem to be a better fit for the state. He comes off more as a Trump Republican, since he opposes privatization of social security, opposes free trade, and favors a minimum wage hike.

The good news for Morrisey is that Democrats still hold a registration advantage over Republicans in WV. Primary voters who would potentially vote for Jenkins wouldn't be able to unless they switch their party affiliation.

[Badger]

John Raese is even less likely than Morrisey to defeat Manchin. Safe D if Raese gets the nomination. Will Raese run in 2018?

Unless Republicans do something stupid and nominate John Raese, Manchin will be in for the fight of his life. Tilt R with Jenkins, Tilt D with Morrisey.

My God, Raese is going to run AGAIN? I remember when he ran against Jay Rockefeller in 84, and he was a flaming asshole then. How this idiot hasn't turned into the Howard Stassen of West Virginia is beyond me.

Oh ye$, it $uddenly dawn$ on me.

[Greedo punched first]

John Raese is even less likely than Morrisey to defeat Manchin. Safe D if Raese gets the nomination. Will Raese run in 2018?

Unless Republicans do something stupid and nominate John Raese, Manchin will be in for the fight of his life. Tilt R with Jenkins, Tilt D with Morrisey.

My God, Raese is going to run AGAIN? I remember when he ran against Jay Rockefeller in 84, and he was a flaming asshole then. How this idiot hasn't turned into the Howard Stassen of West Virginia is beyond me.

Oh ye$, it $uddenly dawn$ on me.

You mean Harold Stassen? Raese might run.

[Lord Admirale]

Honestly, this is the stupidest idea in the 2018 Senate election. Why do the Justice Dems, Berniecrats, and others like them, think that Paula Jean Swearengin can outprimary Joe Manchin (very difficult) and win the general (Shiva Ayyadurai defeating Elizabeth Warren is more likely)? For one, West Virginia is one of the most conservative states in the country. Hillary Clinton got about 26% of the popular vote in the most recent presidential election, not to mention their Democratic governor acts like a Republican.

So, I guess this is where I get so baffled, but if Joe Manchin is outprimaried, why does the far-left want this so badly? Running an SJW in a far-right state is a great way to give the GOP another seat. Why not run someone like her in California? At least there she'd have a decent chance at winning.

[Kamala]

Some Sanders town hall in WV convinced them that it's a True Progressive State.

[BuckeyeNut]

Why do Justice Dems think any of their candidates can win?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Honestly, this is the stupidest idea in the 2018 Senate election. Why do the Justice Dems, Berniecrats, and others like them, think that Paula Jean Swearengin can outprimary Joe Manchin (very difficult) and win the general (Shiva Ayyadurai defeating Elizabeth Warren is more likely)? For one, West Virginia is one of the most conservative states in the country. Hillary Clinton got about 26% of the popular vote in the most recent presidential election, not to mention their Democratic governor acts like a Republican.

So, I guess this is where I get so baffled, but if Joe Manchin is outprimaried, why does the far-left want this so badly? Running an SJW in a far-right state is a great way to give the GOP another seat. Why not run someone like her in California? At least there she'd have a decent chance at winning.

the uber-left-wing of the Dem party isn't always sensible. They focus too much on targeting established incumbents instead of going after deep blue seats where they would easily have an audience.

[The Other Castro]

They're not the brightest bunch politically.

[Skunk]

If Justice somehow loses in the primary, how much you wanna bet he starts up "Democrats for Jenkins"