2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Minnesota Mike]

One state where I will monitor early votes and probably the only one is Florida. They have a history of mass early and mail votes and Republicans do vote by mail in solid numbers.

Nevada and Arizona are also worth paying attention to since their early/mail vote is usually a very large percentage of the total turnout.

Nevada is all vote-by mail this time

Nevada will mail a ballot to every voter but they will also have in person early voting and election day voting. They are not all vote by mail.

[Minnesota Mike]

Sober reminder that while it's great to see long lines it doesn't necessarily mean anything. It's likely these are the most die hards that vote all the time regardless of circumstance.

What would really be interesting to see, and perhaps a better indication, is how many of these are first-time voters or non-2016 voters.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/NC.html

In North Carolina 26,112 voters (22.4%) did not cast a ballot in 2016.  A few may be voters who were too young to cast a vote in 2016 or people who voted in another state but it does seem we are getting quite a few people who sat out 2016 to the polls this time.

[Minnesota Mike]

Early/Absentee voting in Florida in 2016.

https://dos.myflorida.com/media/697363/early-voting-and-vote-by-mail-report-2016-gen.pdf

Voted By Mail:

Dem- 1,049,809
Rep- 1,108,053
Other- 574,213

Voted Early in Person:

Dem- 1,580,003
Rep- 1,425,309
Other- 869,617

Mail in Ballot sent but not returned.

Dem- 265,120
Rep- 201,144
Other- 149,621

The number of mail in ballot requests has skyrocketed this year especially among Democrats. About 5.3 mill ballot requests total with Dem requests outpacing Rep requests by 765K. The thing to watch is the ballot return rate, in 2016 Democrats actually requested more ballots but Republicans returned more. So far (very early) so good for Democrats as they have returned a higher percentage of their ballots. Democrats probably need to be 600-700K ahead in Absentee/Early voting to withstand the Republicans advantage on election day.

[Minnesota Mike]

Do Dems need to net 600k from mail ballots alone, or is it mail+early voting?

 I have no idea where this 600k number was pulled from regarding Florida.

 In 2018 Democrats had a mail-in+early vote advantage(by Party ID) of 31,641 and lost the Senate and Gubernatorial races by 10,033 and 32,454.

https://dos.myflorida.com/media/700669/early-voting-and-vote-by-mail-report-2018-genpdf.pdf

 In 2016 Democrats had a mail-in+early vote lead of 96,450 and Clinton lost to Trump by 112,911.

https://dos.myflorida.com/media/697363/early-voting-and-vote-by-mail-report-2016-gen.pdf

 Every election is different and it's clear that more people are voting early and we can only guess who independants will break for by what the polls are saying. In 2016 indies and undecideds voted for Trump.

I believe the 600-700K number is coming from the fact that about 750K more Democrats have requested absentee ballots than Republicans.

[Minnesota Mike]

More important than the raw numbers in Florida is the return rate (ballots returned/ballots requested).  In past elections Republicans have returned a higher percentage of requested ballots than Democrats. With the expanded use of VBM Democrats can't let that happen this year.

[Minnesota Mike]

Florida Turnout Update (all VBM)

DEM: 562,554
GOP: 309,776
OTHERS: 206,847

TOTAL: 1,079,177

Dems have a 252,778 registration advantage

Will reach 500k in a few days and perhaps close to 800k when in early in person voting is accounted for

I don't know. We have to see how much the voting by mail is cannibalizing early in person voting. Those extra mail ballots are not all new voters.

[Minnesota Mike]

I try not to read too much into it since the use of mail voting is much greater in 2020 than 2016 but in Palm Beach county more Democrats (80,848) have cast mail ballots in 2020 than did during the entire 2016 election (74,079). The total mail vote is closing in too, 134,258 so far in 2020 vs 152,336 in 2016.

[Minnesota Mike]

I try not to read too much into it since the use of mail voting is much greater in 2020 than 2016 but in Palm Beach county more Democrats (80,848) have cast mail ballots in 2020 than did during the entire 2016 election (74,079). The total mail vote is closing in too, 134,258 so far in 2020 vs 152,336 in 2016.

What if you combine VBM and early vote?

2016 VBM and early vote numbers by county in Florida.

https://dos.myflorida.com/media/697363/early-voting-and-vote-by-mail-report-2016-gen.pdf

About 240K voted early in Person in 2016 in Palm Beach so it was quite a bit bigger than MIB (152K). Will be interesting to see how much in person early votes drops compared to 2016.

[Minnesota Mike]

Michael McDonald
@ElectProject
·
4m
#earlyvote cast as a percentage of *total* 2016 vote is truly amazing

SD: 22.8%
VA 20.7%
WI: 20.6%
WY: 14.9%
VT: 14% (report from yesterday)
MI: 13.1% (report from yesterday)
ND: 12.1%
NJ: 12.3%
FL: 12.3%
MN: 11.3% (report from last Fri.)

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202

Look for MN to about double when the next report comes in tomorrow.  As of today the city of Minneapolis has a little over 63,000 votes cast or about 28.9% of the vote cast in 2016.
 
https://vote.minneapolismn.gov/results-data/turnout/2020-general-early-voting-dashboard/

[Minnesota Mike]

Strong day for returns (or at least returns processed)in Iowa. More than 54,000 ballots were returned, more than the 42,000 total up to this point. Dems up 62-26%. Dems 16.7% of requests returned, Republicans 11.2%. Historically Democrats dominate early voting in Iowa.

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2020/general/AbsenteeCongressional2020.pdf

[Minnesota Mike]

Nevada has posted its first numbers (so far only four rural counties). Funny enough, Democrats lead the returns in all four counties which all have a lot more registered Republicans than Democrats

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=9054

Add the first results from Washoe County.

October 12, 2020

Democratic - 6,090
Republican - 2,409
Nonpartisan - 2,096
Total -10,595

https://www.washoecounty.us/voters/elections/20_gen_ab_ev_reports.php

[Minnesota Mike]

Does anyone know what the split was in Washoe on the first day of 2016? Those numbers look pretty promising to me.

Really tough to tell. Absentee voting was not a big thing in Nevada in 2016, the vast majority of early voters voted in person (In person early voting starts Saturday). Voter registration is almost dead even in Washoe county so good numbers so far for Democrats but extremely early.

[Minnesota Mike]

A good site for Arizona early voting results.

https://www.saguarostrategies.com/arizona-ballot-returns

Dem 44,807
Rep 28,782
Other 19,786

[Minnesota Mike]

Dem ballot lead in Florida is getting really close to 400k now!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1837208868

Can we get the arbitrary 600 k?

I think we can.  Maybe we should up arbitrary goal to 700k?

Depends if you are looking at just Absentees or Absentees & In Person Early Voting. If it is just absentees 700K would seem to me to be the minimum since Democrats have requested nearly 800K ballots than Republicans.

[Minnesota Mike]

Travis County

Early Voting Location Voters: 35,873
Mail Ballots Received: 22,577
Total: 58467
 % of Registered Voters (855,175): 6.84%

https://countyclerk.traviscountytx.gov/images/pdfs/election_results/2020.11.03/G20_Daily_Totals_Oct13.pdf

[Minnesota Mike]

Biggest day so far for ballots processed in Broward County. Over 25,000 so far and they appear to be still counting. Previous high was 17,781. Big number is very likely due to ballots left over from yesterday when they only processed 4,093.

https://tqv.vrswebapps.com/?state=FL&county=bro

[Minnesota Mike]

Florida could be 700k lead for dems before election day if this holds up. i remember people saying 500 k would be sufficient but that will be reached easily

Thought the goal was 600k? 

At any rate it looks like they are on track to blow well past both numbers unless Republicans start voting early in big numbers to keep up with expected Democratic turnout.

Dems need at least a 700K lead in Absentees since they have an 800K lead in Absentee requests. What kind of margin they need in in person early voting is anyone's guess.

[Minnesota Mike]

Huge vote dump from Minnesota. Almost 1,000,000 have voted and the Twin Cities are over 60% returns!

Fwiw (not much), Minnesota doesn’t distinguish between returned mail ballots and in person early votes. So I think the return percentage for counties on McDonald’s site is a little inflated.

Technically there is no in person early voting in Minnesota. You can go to the county auditors office, fill out an application for an absentee ballot, get your ballot and fill it out and put it in the return envelopes (3 separate envelopes)  and return it directly. Would be much less hassle if you could just sign in and put your ballot in the machine but that is not how they do it.

[Minnesota Mike]

1.3mil voted in harris county so getting 400k in 4 days isn't surprising - it'll start to slow down

There's uh....3 weeks of early voting this year unlike 2 in the past, so it's pretty surprising lol. Also Harris County has 7 am to 10 pm ev the final 3 days of ev in 2 weeks and one day of 24 hour voting at 3 sites on oct 29th

uh... so there won't be 400k in 4 days for every week lol it's just people enthuastic to vote people do this each election with the more people voting but it's the same result

No this pace can't keep up but it is pretty clear turnout is going to be up from 2016. Only 58% of registered voters cast ballots in Harris County in 2016 so there is plenty of room for growth. Expand turnout while expanding margins and Democrats can net quite a few votes. I'm still doubtful Biden can carry Texas but it will help down ballot.

[Minnesota Mike]

Yeah, Travis always has high turnout. In 2016, the county had a turnout of 90%. The fact that they’re keeping up with 2016 early voting is a good sign that they’ll hit they number again.

In 2016 Travis had a turnout of 63.8%

https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/historical/travis.shtml

[Minnesota Mike]

Yeah, Travis always has high turnout. In 2016, the county had a turnout of 90%. The fact that they’re keeping up with 2016 early voting is a good sign that they’ll hit they number again.

In 2016 Travis had a turnout of 63.8%

https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/historical/travis.shtml

You’re right, the 90% is the amount of people registered to vote. Big difference!

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2016/oct/14/bruce-elfant/bruce-elfant-says-90-plus-percent-eligible-travis-/

A remarkable stat, nonetheless!

In 2020 Travis is up to a remarkable 97% of eligible voters registered. About 850,000 total, 125,000 more than 2016.

https://spectrumlocalnews.com/tx/austin/news/2020/10/13/travis-county-achieves-record-breaking-97--voter-registration-

[Minnesota Mike]

Watch mail in ballot returns today in Florida. I suspect a lot of Mail Ballots were dropped off at drop boxes at early voting sites yesterday and will be processed today. Pinellas County has already processed more Mail Ballots today than they did all yesterday for example.

[Minnesota Mike]

Over 50,000 votes already today in Broward County. Big day for absentee returns across Florida as ballots dropped in drop boxes at Early Voting Centers are counted.

[Minnesota Mike]

Over 50,000 votes already today in Broward County. Big day for absentee returns across Florida as ballots dropped in drop boxes at Early Voting Centers are counted.

This would appear good for Dems, no?

Yep.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/IA.html

The IA return rates are pretty stunning, particularly Democrats.  82.5% returned already.

There is no true early voting in Iowa but you can vote in person by going to the County Auditors office, requesting, filing out, and returning an absentee all in one stop. That inflates return rates.