Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1210305949921095680

Likud cannot be allowed to lead the State of Israel any longer.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/YairNetanyahu/status/1210643795550908416

Israel’s Don Jr.

What an appalling, morally bankrupt family.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1226940217719959553

Oops.

Might I remind you all that this is a party portraying itself as competent to rule?

[brucejoel99]

https://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Israel-begins-mapping-out-West-Bank-land-for-annexation-after-election-616961

Israel is totally not a quasi-apartheid and fascist state when they want to annex foreign land aka Russia style, while wanting to kick Arabs from the Israeli state.

As a Jew, I'm looking forward to all criticism of this moronic plan being unduly labeled as anti-Semitic.

[brucejoel99]

I dont see why Joint List would want to join this government especially if Liberman is in on it

"The enemy of Bibi is my friend."

[brucejoel99]

What are the chances that, when an actual minority government which includes Lieberman is actually proposed, Balad doesn't get cold feet? I'm just having difficulty imagining Balad actually actively voting to put a government with Yisrael Beiteinu in office.

The 35th government of Israel is one which will have been formed on the basis of Lieberman & Balad having to make up their minds. Who does Lieberman hate more: Bibi & the Haredim, or the Arabs? Is Balad more committed to hating Jews or getting real results for their people? Lieberman appears to have made up his mind, & now it's time for Balad to make up theirs.

[brucejoel99]

What are the chances that, when an actual minority government which includes Lieberman is actually proposed, Balad doesn't get cold feet? I'm just having difficulty imagining Balad actually actively voting to put a government with Yisrael Beiteinu in office.

The 35th government of Israel is one which will have been formed on the basis of Lieberman & Balad having to make up their minds. Who does Lieberman hate more: Bibi & the Haredim, or the Arabs? Is Balad more committed to hating Jews or getting real results for their people? Lieberman appears to have made up his mind, & now it's time for Balad to make up theirs.

You people are impossible.

K. Ignoring the legitimate issues surrounding Balad which there's no point in discussing with you since where you stand is where you stand &, as such, there's absolutely zero chance I'd ever even come close to a point at which you'd consider being more open-minded: I've very much talked about my being Jewish on the Forum before so, with that in mind...

[brucejoel99]

Can someone give me an idiots guide as to A.) if Gantz will actually become PM

That's what we're all waiting to find out. It (weirdly) seems closer than ever, but there's still a (relatively) uphill battle to get there.

B.) What hurdles remain?

In order from least-to-most important:

1. Formally getting Lieberman & Labor on board a minority government. I say this is least important because it's already a presumed given that they'd support him in a confidence vote.

2. Balad. They've seemed to indicate that their individual party is opposed to Gantz, so it's not a given that they'd support him in a confidence vote, but they also didn't specifically object to the Joint List's recommendation of Gantz like they did last time, so that's a pretty good sign.

3. Hauser & Handel. As they've evidently made clear, they don't want a minority government that involves support from Arab parties, so if at least one of them votes against it (while Balad abstains) in a confidence vote, then Gantz has no government, & a fourth election it is. However, it's also rumored that they might vote for a minority government supported by the JL if a unity government is impossible, & with Bibi's recent moves, that might be becoming the case. If not, though, then a fourth election it is.

C.) Why people like Orla Levy and others either took so long or refused to back Gantz?

With regards to Balad, it ultimately comes down to whether or not their main priority is removing Bibi from power above all else, & while they don't love Gantz, they'll hopefully reach the conclusion that they'll be better treated under a Gantz-led government.

As for Hauser & Handel, they just really don't want a minority government that involves Arab support. They'd much rather (somehow) have a unity government, to the point that they forced the 3rd election, but with the coronavirus pandemic crippling the country's economy & public life this time, they're really stuck between a rock & a hard place now re: allowing the formation of a minority government so that it can focus on fighting & containing the emergency.

And Orly Levy is just a snake who took votes from leftists that wanted a minority government so she could keep her seat in the Knesset.

[brucejoel99]

Come on Hendel & Hauser. Prove yourselves. No unity government is possible. Vote for a minority government.

[brucejoel99]

This is so messed up. I'll be so pissed if Israel goes the way of Turkey, Iran, Russia, etc. in having a democracy-in-name-only.

I'm hoping people will find their sense but this is insane.

And hell, if this were any other time & they sought to ignore a High Court order, then there legitimately might be riots. The problem right now, of course, is that people are afraid to go outside & can't gather in large crowds because of the coronavirus, so this virus appears to have created a very good situation for Bibi & Likud.

[brucejoel99]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/likud-says-right-wing-bloc-will-boycott-stolen-undemocratic-knesset/

"Blue and White together with [Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor] Liberman and the [mostly Arab] Joint List decided to steal the Knesset from 2.5 million right-wing voters," Likud said in a statement.

Actually, 2,332,733 left-wing bloc voters > 2,220,428 right-wing bloc voters. But thank you Likud, very cool!

[brucejoel99]

Gantz is a f**king clown.

[brucejoel99]

Happy a unity government with a large majority and broad Knesset support across the aisle - from Labour to the National Union - is being formed in these trying times.

Sad that Lieberman, Lapid and Meretz think shopping on shabbat is preferable to having a broad unity government in times of a pandemic and with a recession on its way. Happy Gantz made the right call and Israel can move on.

The pandemic changes nothing; it's just a giant excuse. All potential governments would've roughly done the same, limiting people's movement & hoping for the best.

What matters is how the government will act over the next 10 years, & Gantz just gave his seal of approval to Bibi. Some unity government this is, with the same right-wing bloc in power.

I truly don't understand what his game plan is; he just told any possible center-right voter that "Bibi is better than me; it's okay for him to be Prime Minister." He won't get any votes from them, & now he won't be getting any votes from the left either.

[brucejoel99]

Shas' leader has guaranteed Gantz that he'll ensure Bibi honors the rotation agreement. A new law will reportedly ensure that, if snap elections are called, then Gantz will automatically become PM of the caretaker government.

Is it just me or does anybody else think that Bibi's hoping to become President when Rivlin's out next year? That'd earn him 7 years of immunity.

[brucejoel99]

Shas' leader has guaranteed Gantz that he'll ensure Bibi honors the rotation agreement. A new law will reportedly ensure that, if snap elections are called, then Gantz will automatically become PM of the caretaker government.

Is it just me or does anybody else think that Bibi's hoping to become President when Rivlin's out next year? That'd earn him 7 years of immunity.

Isn't that meant to be an at least moderately "respected across the board" figure?

Meant to be? Yes. But on paper, the President is simply whomever 61 MKs say it should be.

Bibi as President means he can't be PM.

I didn't say he'd be both? The implication is that Gantz replaces him upon his ascendancy to the Presidency.

[brucejoel99]

Bibi as President means he can't be PM.

I didn't say he'd be both? The implication is that Gantz replaces him upon his ascendancy to the Presidency.

No I mean Bibi's time as PM would be over once he's President, which is a good thing. It's a good thing he'd no longer have the power of Prime Minister vested with him and all.

This is true, but Bibi being Bibi, maybe he tries to be Erdogan 2.0.

[brucejoel99]

So what's this new government going to look like? Likud + Yamina + Haredi + Gantz's half of Blue and White?

Yeah, the 58 from the right-religious bloc (Likud + Shas + UTJ + Yamina) + the 15 from Gantz's party Resilience + Hendel & Hauser. So at least 75 members in total.

[brucejoel99]

So what's this new government going to look like? Likud + Yamina + Haredi + Gantz's half of Blue and White?

Yeah, the 58 from the right-religious bloc (Likud + Shas + UTJ + Yamina) + the 15 from Gantz's party Resilience + Hendel & Hauser. So at least 75 members in total.

Is Gabi Ashkenazi going along?

Are any members of Israeli Resilience defecting to Telem or Yesh Atid over this? I'd be shocked if every Resilience MK was OK with this.

All of the Resilience MKs seem to be going along with it, yes. And Ashkenazi is not only a member of Resilience but is the rumored Defense Minister, so I'd indeed imagine that he's going along with it too, yeah.

[brucejoel99]

2. There are virtually no Corona rally-to-the-flag coattails for Netanyahu. In France Macron has rocketed from the grave to a 50% approval. In the US Trump, despite absolutely mangling the American crisis reaponse, has his best numbers ever right now. Boris Johnson fumbled the UK response at first and got historic apprroval numbers (and apparently Corona) as a reward. But Netanyahu? At least half the country still can't stand him.

Any approval numbers, or say Head-to-Head Bibi vs Gantz? What we have have seen in other counties, as you noted, is leaders in positions of prominence gaining approvals via crisis management. However, the approvals are 'soft' in that approvers have not abandoned their old parties. In Italy polls have found Conte with sky high approvals, but the party toplines have only slightly changed. Lega still leads and the right still leads the govt in combined percentage, but by a bit less. Austria and Germany have found the parties to be polling similar to their numbers before the crisis, just with the government parties up by a hair since before the crisis. Trump similarly has been unable to convert record approvals into poll leads over Biden nationally. South Korean polls have been stable before and during this crisis, despite the election in a few weeks. The UK in this regard is an outlier because of the labour succession occurring concurrent to the virus.

I wouldn't be surprised if it's the same in Israel. Bibi personally is likely enjoying some historically high numbers, but voters haven't moved that much.

Head-to-Head Bibi vs Gantz would be one of the most completely irrelevant polls to undertake now.

[brucejoel99]

"The Tibi coalition" is an interesting (read: delusional and shamelessly racist) way to describe a Zionist-center-left minority government that would have had outside confidence and supply from the Arabs. But delusion and shameless racism (whether against Ostjuden or Sephardim and Mizrahim or Arabs) have characterized a certain current in the Zionist center-left for a very long time, so I agree with you that it's not logical for these people to prefer a fundamentalist ethnarchy over AAAAAH AY-RABS.

I wouldn't see you downplay the significance of "outside confidence and supply" when it would be a hypothetical CDU-FDP coalition with AfD outside support in Sachsen (or indeed similar hypothetical arrangements with much more mainstream parties on the European right). What's the difference?
Current and recent former JL MKs have made endlessly more problematic comments on Jews than Höcke ever did.

Apart from that, Zionism is about Jews being in control of their own Jewish state. A weak minority government relying on Arab parties who are outright hostile to the idea of Israel as a Jewish state would seriously jeopardize this idea of Zionism and everyone who is intellectually honest knows this.

I guess you missed the part where it says that all Israelis are equal under the State.

[brucejoel99]

"The Tibi coalition" is an interesting (read: delusional and shamelessly racist) way to describe a Zionist-center-left minority government that would have had outside confidence and supply from the Arabs. But delusion and shameless racism (whether against Ostjuden or Sephardim and Mizrahim or Arabs) have characterized a certain current in the Zionist center-left for a very long time, so I agree with you that it's not logical for these people to prefer a fundamentalist ethnarchy over AAAAAH AY-RABS.

I wouldn't see you downplay the significance of "outside confidence and supply" when it would be a hypothetical CDU-FDP coalition with AfD outside support in Sachsen (or indeed similar hypothetical arrangements with much more mainstream parties on the European right). What's the difference?
Current and recent former JL MKs have made endlessly more problematic comments on Jews than Höcke ever did.

Apart from that, Zionism is about Jews being in control of their own Jewish state. A weak minority government relying on Arab parties who are outright hostile to the idea of Israel as a Jewish state would seriously jeopardize this idea of Zionism and everyone who is intellectually honest knows this.

I guess you missed the part where it says that all Israelis are equal under the State.

That has nothing to do with what Zionism is about. The Israeli constitution is not a 1:1 reflection of Zionist ideology.

Zionism & equal rights for Israeli Arabs aren't mutually exclusive. Any adherent who believes otherwise is just trying to cover for not giving a f**k about 21% of Israel's population.

[brucejoel99]

"The Tibi coalition" is an interesting (read: delusional and shamelessly racist) way to describe a Zionist-center-left minority government that would have had outside confidence and supply from the Arabs. But delusion and shameless racism (whether against Ostjuden or Sephardim and Mizrahim or Arabs) have characterized a certain current in the Zionist center-left for a very long time, so I agree with you that it's not logical for these people to prefer a fundamentalist ethnarchy over AAAAAH AY-RABS.

I wouldn't see you downplay the significance of "outside confidence and supply" when it would be a hypothetical CDU-FDP coalition with AfD outside support in Sachsen (or indeed similar hypothetical arrangements with much more mainstream parties on the European right). What's the difference?
Current and recent former JL MKs have made endlessly more problematic comments on Jews than Höcke ever did.

Apart from that, Zionism is about Jews being in control of their own Jewish state. A weak minority government relying on Arab parties who are outright hostile to the idea of Israel as a Jewish state would seriously jeopardize this idea of Zionism and everyone who is intellectually honest knows this.

I guess you missed the part where it says that all Israelis are equal under the State.

That has nothing to do with what Zionism is about. The Israeli constitution is not a 1:1 reflection of Zionist ideology.

Zionism & equal rights for Israeli Arabs aren't mutually exclusive. Any adherent who believes otherwise is just trying to cover for not giving a f**k about 21% of Israel's population.

They may not be, but your "gotcha" argument ("guess you missed...") isn't valid.

It is, though. Last I checked, Zionism is still supposed to be structured on democratic principles.

[brucejoel99]

"The Tibi coalition" is an interesting (read: delusional and shamelessly racist) way to describe a Zionist-center-left minority government that would have had outside confidence and supply from the Arabs. But delusion and shameless racism (whether against Ostjuden or Sephardim and Mizrahim or Arabs) have characterized a certain current in the Zionist center-left for a very long time, so I agree with you that it's not logical for these people to prefer a fundamentalist ethnarchy over AAAAAH AY-RABS.

I wouldn't see you downplay the significance of "outside confidence and supply" when it would be a hypothetical CDU-FDP coalition with AfD outside support in Sachsen (or indeed similar hypothetical arrangements with much more mainstream parties on the European right). What's the difference?
Current and recent former JL MKs have made endlessly more problematic comments on Jews than Höcke ever did.

Apart from that, Zionism is about Jews being in control of their own Jewish state. A weak minority government relying on Arab parties who are outright hostile to the idea of Israel as a Jewish state would seriously jeopardize this idea of Zionism and everyone who is intellectually honest knows this.

I guess you missed the part where it says that all Israelis are equal under the State.

That has nothing to do with what Zionism is about. The Israeli constitution is not a 1:1 reflection of Zionist ideology.

Zionism & equal rights for Israeli Arabs aren't mutually exclusive. Any adherent who believes otherwise is just trying to cover for not giving a f**k about 21% of Israel's population.

They may not be, but your "gotcha" argument ("guess you missed...") isn't valid.

It is, though. Last I checked, Zionism is still supposed to be structured on democratic principles.

Democracy doesn't equal liberal democracy, it can also mean the right of an (ethnically or culturally defined) people to govern itself. The core of Zionism is the right of the Jewish people to have a national homeland, and if there is a conflict between that and liberal principles (as enshrined in the constitution) then you can't just assume that the latter takes precedence for every Zionist. If one were to follow your logic you can't be a Zionist unless you believe in liberal principles incl. minority rights, and that's a meaningless definition.

Espousing the development & protection of the State of Israel, post re-establishment, is antithetical to discrimination among citizens of the said State under the law. If an individual who considers themself to be a Zionist fundamentally disagrees with that being the case, then I don't know what to tell you except to say that they're in fundamental disagreement with the movement they claim to be an adherent of, & that's not my problem; that's theirs.

[brucejoel99]

Problem is, the "two state solution" is effectively dead (in large part thanks to Likud's actions)

It's been dead since September 28, 2000.

*November 4, 1995.

[brucejoel99]

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/elections/.premium-gantz-to-push-law-allowing-netanyahu-to-serve-in-government-despite-trial-1.8719083

Utterly despicable, cowardly and infuriating. His career is 100% over.