Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[Hnv1]

Joint request to extend the mandate. Yamina said they are out of the right wing bloc

Edit: mandate extended by 2 days. I think we might wake up to a government now that the bloc is dead

If we do, it seems to me like Netanyahu tried to play chicken with Gantz and... Gantz won?

No. Bennet understood he was screwed over, released the message while they were in the meeting and Bibi realized his bloc strategy is dead so he can’t go to a fourth election and conceded.
Gantz can’t tell the difference between a chicken and a lamb.

Why would Bennet do this if we were going to an election though?

Because we’re not going to a fourth round. Once he realized Bibi was serious he left the bloc

[Hnv1]

No agreement reached. They have 5 hours tomorrow evening to close it

[Hnv1]

Is Shas running, hopefully they will return to their leftist roots but that's a pipedream.

Shas has no leftist roots. Deri’i being moderate and then sitting with Labour to jog on government cash doesn’t put them to the left. Their voters are actually very to the right and wouldn’t take aligning with the left well.

[Hnv1]

Is Shas running, hopefully they will return to their leftist roots but that's a pipedream.

Shas has no leftist roots. Deri’i being moderate and then sitting with Labour to jog on government cash doesn’t put them to the left. Their voters are actually very to the right and wouldn’t take aligning with the left well.

Deri used to be well to the left on economic issues, got a decent number of Arab votes, and Shas was a fairly vigorous proponent of Oslo. So at one point Shas was truly left wing on some key issues. Now they are just theocratic Bibi-ists. The change happened when Yishai took over after Deri went to jail.

Well I actually remember those days and they weren’t left on economics, supporting government spending to benefit your sector isn’t “left”. Deri’i wasn’t a proponent of Oslo, he was willing to support but he wasn’t in the peace camp, merely pragmatic, like saying Meridor was leftist. Coincidental agreement with the left doesn’t make you leftist.
On all other issues Shas were always firmly to the right. It’s the historic revisionism that paints Sephardi as more moderate.

[Hnv1]

I still expect the Supreme Court to disqualify Netanyahu as PM, and the main parties seem to tqke that very seriously as well, so we may be going to a fourth election no matter what happens with the blocs.

I don’t see a reason for any party that’s not Likud, Shas and UTJ to be against this. If any politician isn’t then they deserve to go too tbh.

Apparently the whole unity bid has been on ice over Netanyahu's concern that the Court will indeed disqualify him. They wanted Gantz to change the basic law to prevent that, Gantz said no, but they did get him to promise an automatic new election if Bagatz does go the way I think they will.

I am not actually entirely opposed to a unity deal if KL can squeeze Likud for key ministries (like Education) and especially if Yamina is kept out of the government. I suppose it comes down to whether you beleve that Netanyahu or the Israeli right is a graver threat to our political future. Bibi is bad, but the apocalyptic ideology of the religious right, driven by an insane ethno-supremacist religious movement, has always made my skin crawl more than anything. Bennet and Shaked are just upper class Ashkenazi Likudniks, so they aren't really all that bad. Like the Rubios of the American right. But the Smotrichs and religious settler leaders are absolutely terrifying. So stealing the government out of their hands and jolting it back to the left is really tempting, especially if Netanyahu will be ensured to face a judge for his alleged crimes.

Likud as a center-right/right wing conservative party? No. Likud as a corrupt, divisive, mafia-esque Fidesz lite? 100%.

Fair point.

And it's not as though Isreali politics in general is that dissimilar from Eastern Europe's either.

They are pretty dissimilar.

I thought they were fairly similar due to large numbers of Eastern European migration and, later, Russians? Enlighten me.

Only a small segment of the population is Eastern European, and many of them have been absorbed into the political mainstream anyway. Israeli politics are not defined by their orientation towards Soviet occupation and the years following it, as in Poland, Czechia, etc. Israel is an incredibly diverse place, unlike Eastern Europe, and our politics are especially oriented around tribal identity, around ethnic, cultural, and religious divisions (and not East vs West, strictly speaking). It's also a much more vigorously democratic and liberal (even with the structural racism) polity. It simply doesn't have the cynicism of Eastern European politics (yet--we are getting there). There is a libertarian streak to Israeli politics that is decidedly Western, yet a sectarianism more common in the Middle East. Think Belgium + Lebanon + Argentina and you have something approximating our politics. Israeli politics are all at once the most vibrant and exciting and depressing anywhere.

I actually think it's quite an apt comparison. Israel also has a strong emphasis of the ethnos, re-surging religion, contempt of the foreign, and a widespread common believe on the supremacy of the executive branch.

the only difference is the leftist elite which is somehow a counter balance you don't find in eastern Europe.

I think Turkey is more similar though

[Hnv1]

Chapter IV would be “Sisyphus’ Rock”

[Hnv1]

Apparently if there isn’t an agreement reached by Monday, Gantz is gonna advance the legislation blocking Bibi from forming a government.

We buying it?

Not going to happen. Now it will look petty and rigged. I doubt they’ll have the 61 votes required. More likely the motion to freeze the situation for 6 months might pass

[Hnv1]

Maybe it's time for Israel to take a page from its neighbors and have a good old fashioned military coup. Or perhaps reestablish the Davidic monarchy.

I wasn't ready to say that even a month ago, but now I honestly wish the IDF would remove Netanyahu and act as a caretaker government until new elections can be organized.

Having a secular coup in Turkey worked out so well.

I'll say it: the only problem with the coup against Erdogan is that it failed. Sue me.

The coup would not have resulted in a genuine democracy and would have to be semi-autroritarian. That maybe a positive over Erdogan but it could have also led to an Egypt style dictatorship.

The Israeli (and once the Turkish) military are different to the Egyptian, the IDF doesn’t have the grounds to maintain a sustained military regime. Anyhow between democracy and liberalism we ought to favor liberalism

[Hnv1]

AM I reading correctly? Liberals actually saying and liking the idea of a military coup as an alternative to Netenyahu? As long as the democratic exercise of going to vote is free and fair there is absolutely no justification for the military to step in. Its an admission of institutional failure.

Yes you read right, it’s not uncommon for secular military coups around here.

Why would liberals accept your low democratic threshold of right to vote? We care about more than that. What would a right to vote help in a country where my human rights aren’t constitutionally guaranteed? Or the government is discriminating in other fields but is keeping a clean cut appearance for election? What about an unelected government using a loophole to govern for over a year due to criminal proceedings and refusing to accept the actual participation of a segment of the population.

Formal democracy is of no significance for liberals. We care about autonomy and human dignity, formal democracy is instrumental for the fulfillment of those at best.

[Hnv1]

(Also, the IDF's culture is nothing like that of the Turkish military, so if it did take power in a moment of extreme political crisis - which it won't, let's be real - I'm pretty confident they'd restore democracy as soon as possible.)

A promise that has been made many times in the past, but not always kept.

Israeli culture and the structure of the IDF make the idea untenable anyhow. An army of conscripts and reservists aren’t going to maintain military order on their aunts and uncles for long, an the IDF as an institution would want to rid itself from this obligation.

It’s no accidents the only time hushed military coups were discussed were at times of war (48 and twice in 67) for only very short periods to achieve some objective.

[Hnv1]

This is my nightmare. an hawkish government with a populist-leftist economic agenda (Nissenkoren, Peretz, Shmoli, Heimovic et al).

on the other hand, I can't really cope with a 4th election cycle

[Hnv1]

Will Yamina and/or Labor enter?

Yamina probably not (maybe Peretz alone). Labour will go in, Michaeli might leave

[Hnv1]

Will Yamina and/or Labor enter?

Yamina probably not (maybe Peretz alone). Labour will go in, Michaeli might leave

Will she have to give up her seat, then? Or is Meretz still asking her to join?

No one can force an MK out of the knesset. She can leave Labour and form her own faction by law (she is 1/3 of Labour's house faction). whether she'll join Meretz remains to be seen, I doubt it though.

[Hnv1]

Annexation is approved to start in July 1st without a Gantz ability to veto. And the judiciary committee will have a conservative majority- there's supposed to be an opposition and coalition representative, but it ended up with a Likud rep and a KL rep who will be motherf**ing Hauser.

The judicial committee didn't really have an opposition rep the last 5 years. It's a customary practice.

all in all B&W squeezed quite a lot. but...Gantz will never be PM. starting tomorrow they will torment them on each step of the way to force them out.

[Hnv1]

Annexation is approved to start in July 1st without a Gantz ability to veto. And the judiciary committee will have a conservative majority- there's supposed to be an opposition and coalition representative, but it ended up with a Likud rep and a KL rep who will be motherf**ing Hauser.

The judicial committee didn't really have an opposition rep the last 5 years. It's a customary practice.

all in all B&W squeezed quite a lot. but...Gantz will never be PM. starting tomorrow they will torment them on each step of the way to force them out.

Wasn't the oppositon rep always something sham but still from the opposition, like YB?

Yes. the law merely states the Knesset will elect two reps. The custom was for one to be from the opposition though it wasn't always kept (2016-2019, 1967-69 as I can remember, 84-92)

[Hnv1]

Now that there is no GE in sight and we have a government we move to a regular thread.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=369874.0

[Hnv1]

So it was agreed by Gantz that if the High Court of Justice bars Netanyahu from running they’re just gonna go to a new election and no one is talking about this?

I actually don't see why that's wrong. The SC is on shaky legal grounds here and it will be quite a constitutional crisis, I think going to a referendum like elections on the topic is not unreasonable.

It's a better option than to agree to push forward a special bill to overturn their decision.

The only issue here is that it constrains the judiciary knowing full well their decision is responsible for a GE and that they are going against the wishes of a coalition of around 70-75 MKs.

The real problematic parts in the deal is basically the subordination of the Knesset to government with the Knesset lack of sovereignty to topple the government, the agreement for a 3 years government, the annulment of the opposition in the house, and this duumiverate government that is not going to work.