Armenia—Azerbaijan Conflict Aftermath: Discord in Armenia

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Doesn’t Schiff’s district have a ton of Armenians?
If so, I would not be surprised by this at all, he gets the vote of an extremely jingoistic group that definitely cares about this issue far more than the average American. Makes sense politically.

As for the actual measure, yeah it’s ridiculous and hopefully will get nowhere. Azerbaijan was unjustified in starting this current conflict, but recognizing Artsakh is way too much right now and probably only will make things worse.
We should just continue to push for a compromise.

Yeah, from the figures I see on wiki, the district is at least 10% Armenian-American. Glendale, California, is the single biggest center of Armenian Americans in California.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Pride goes before the fall.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Looks like Azerbaijan is going to take advantage of a distracted Russia.

https://twitter.com/nytimesworld/status/1507808381511389185?s=20&t=eX1Ssk26q...

Entirely unsurprised. There've been rumbkings for a few weeks; I'm not super up to date, but gas was cut off to NK recently and locals think the Azeri forces installed a valve in the pipeline, allowing for arbitrary and immediate future cutoffs.

Would be completely unsurprised if this happened, and the locals are likely completely right. The Azeris, from a purely power-minded POV, would be dumb to not press their position right now anyway.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There has been another flare up. It appears that Azerbaijan may have invaded southern Armenia. They are taking advantage of the war in Ukraine occupying the world's attention and Russia's current predicament. I'm watching for the Russian and Iranian response.
Russia has a force of peacekeepers stationed in Nagorno Karabakh and a military base in Gyumri. As a member of CSTO, Armenia should have the protection of Russia if Azerbaijan occupies their internationally recognized borders. If Russia's response is weak then it will be a major humiliation. Their sphere of influence will be as good as dead.
Iran is one of Armenia's oldest partners, they have repeatedly warned off Azerbaijan's encroachment of Armenia's borders. I don't think they will look favorably upon this naked land grab. I do not know what they would do but military action is not out of the question.
The rest of the world will issue condemnations but in the end they can do nothing.

Could this have consequences outside the Caucusus region? Does Russia currently have the troops to spare to force Azerbaijan to the table? What happens if Iran gets militarily involved?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I hope Cathcon is ok.

Wait I thought he was from Michigan?!

He's in Armenia rn

And he arrived just a few days ago. Unfortunate timing.

Hey, at least this gives him a great opportunity to be an Atlas war correspondent.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sanctions against Azerbaijan is a question of what sustains and strengthens US interests. There are eventualities that could unfold in which sanctions are unavoidable but they would involve horrifying things I would rather not fixate on at the moment.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There are protests at parliament! I get it, but somewhat mystifying, since hypothetically these people could all be put to better use.

I heard on Twitter it was because Pashinyan said something to the effect of "I am only open to a negotiated peace agreement with Aliyev if it has robust and trustworthy security guarantees for Armenia" and this got spun in some media as "Pashinyan open to peace agreement with Aliyev!" But at this point, it's pretty much a game of telephone regardless and hard to say what the demonstrators are protesting for or against.

How have Russian-language media been covering this? Would they have a more accurate take on it?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://t.me/sputnik/13139

On phone so won't transcribe. You can read the caption.

Thanks for bringing this to us. I trust that you can stay safe.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It’s genuinely appalling the lack of coverage this has gotten compared to the slightest discontent between Israel-Palestine.

Well, at least you can count on Adam Schiff talking about this.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/ALavrina/status/1570088233614315529?cxt=HHwWksDQ6cC7icorAAAA
It seems Kazakhstan is seeking to signal neutrality (though this is, it must be noted, a pro-Azeri talking point in practice).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It’s genuinely appalling the lack of coverage this has gotten compared to the slightest discontent between Israel-Palestine.

Well, at least you can count on Adam Schiff talking about this.

I wonder how long it'll take until we start hearing the natsec ghouls say it's okay for Azerbaijan to ethnically cleanse Armenians because Russia and Armenia are allies.

I'm not sure if that would ever be kosher to word it that way. But iterations of both sides-ism would be almost guaranteed, especially since both sides have a history of ethnically cleansing each other. The true answer ought to be "neither side should ethnically cleanse", but sadly politics makes that complicated to put in place and we'd need to bridge differences with situational opponents to produce a framework to guarantee that. One should hope such an arrangement is possible. I'm not getting my hopes up too much though.

Given the Azeris are very well connected, they are likely to be stridently intransigent on this, and confidently so.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://euroweeklynews.com/2022/09/15/update-azerbaijan-and-armenia-agree-to-call-a-truce/

A truce has reportedly been agreed, but Iran refuses any changes to the border and has mobilized troops at the border, while France and Greece have reportedly offered Armenia military aid.

The vanguard of Western civilization.

Gee, I wonder why the Greeks would go to bat for Armenia...(paging Greek diner owners all over suburban South Jersey)

What would bronz have to say about this?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It’s genuinely appalling the lack of coverage this has gotten compared to the slightest discontent between Israel-Palestine.

Well, at least you can count on Adam Schiff talking about this.

I wonder how long it'll take until we start hearing the natsec ghouls say it's okay for Azerbaijan to ethnically cleanse Armenians because Russia and Armenia are allies.

I'm seeing plenty of people saying it Armenia's fault for making a poor choice of allies, as if cutting ties with Russia would have caused the west favor them over Turkey and Azerbaijan. Then you also have the clowns who insist that Armenia needs to "accept reality" and improve relations with the country that still denies their genocide and the ethnonationist regime to their east, as if they would have been willing to do the same had they been in Armenia's position.

Yeah, blaming Armenia for this is straight-up victim-blaming and unconscionable. People with a principled view of foreign policy (admittedly not many of these people around) should really know better.

It should be unambiguously clear that Armenia's government can, in retrospect, reasonably be blamed for underinvesting in their military and for resting on the laurels of what they attained in the 1990s for too long.

Of course, Armenia being pro-Russia making this something they deserve...that's an idea that doesn't hold up under critical analysis even from a realist perspective. One simple question pokes a huge hole in that theory, that Armenia not being pro-Russia would make the West pro-Armenia - in what world do policymakers in Washington think Azerbaijan has less to bring to the table than Armenia does?

Armenia can't rely on Washington. Washington has no means to defend the country. Armenia needs to look closer. It needs to maintain its relationships with Iran and Russia. Its current predicament is not one in which it is blameless (it has made its own share of mistakes and missteps), but it always needs Tehran and Moscow as an insurance policy to preserve its sovereignty. And that's just (geo)politics.