PA: Insider Advantage: Tie

[Eraserhead]

I still think Fetterman has some Tilt advantage, but is clear that Oz has some momentum.

It's gonna be exciting but also scary to watch the results roll in because I actually care a bit about this one.

[Person Man]

When will people on here learn? Anyone who said Dems were losing PA would’ve been labeled “doomer” now here we are.

Party is a joke.

A joke indeed.  Given their track record outside of presidential races since 2008, they would somehow manage to step in poop on a completely clean sidewalk.  

How do their “strategists” still have jobs for God’s sake.

The Neurodiversity is strong within them. Not that it is a bad thing but for every one thing they really really need to do and do, there's at least one thing these strategists push us into that's like "Whoops! Wrong planet!"

We need another Howard Dean. We need to tell activists that the weird girl in Pennsylvania or the sweater guy in Ohio will vote Republican until and unless we understand society isn't ready to hear every single thing these activists want to talk about. You know why Republicans are so successful? They have cadre of stupid people where the rest of them can triangulate on. They do that without having to renounce a single thing.

[Morning in Atlas]

When will people on here learn? Anyone who said Dems were losing PA would’ve been labeled “doomer” now here we are.

Party is a joke.

A joke indeed.  Given their track record outside of presidential races since 2008, they would somehow manage to step in poop on a completely clean sidewalk.  

How do their “strategists” still have jobs for God’s sake.

The Democratic Party's strategy starts to make sense when you view them in the lens of a grift operation and not a serious political outfit.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

InsiderAdvantage Chairman Matt Towery says Fetterman’s shrinking lead was a result of self-described independent voters breaking for Oz by twenty points.

"Oz is also picking an unusually high 14% of the African American vote and Asians and Hispanics prefer Oz say they are voting for Oz by a wide margin. [sic] Fetterman continues to enjoy a ten-point lead among female voters, while men prefer Oz at that same rate," Towery explained.

Treat these crosstabs with caution, but I’ve long thought that the potential for an Oz overperformance in the Delaware Valley is very underrated. I think the county map/margins in PA-SEN will be the most atypical of any competitive Senate race this cycle.

I don't know how people thought "he's from New Jersey" was a game-changing path to landslide. Almost half of Eagles country is from New Jersey. They are very much part of the biggest city in the Pennsylvania and the Delaware Valley. People cross this line first established by God and re-established by man many times throughout their life.

[Senator Incitatus]

It’s over. Lean R.

This is a contradiction.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Shapiro's going to win by at least 5 and I have a hard time seeing there being 5% of Shapiro/Oz voters. I think a lot of people might wind up voting Fetterman and hoping for a Shapiro appointment of Tom Wolf not long after.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Everyone needs to calm down we have 5)6 percent of the blk vote to help Fetterman, McGinty when she lost females to Toomey, females will vote for Fetterman that jogger story has no important in blk race because Rs blocked Voting Rights, Fetterman will win

Blks will help Fetterman out in Pittsburgh and Phillies , no way Fetterman loses with Shapiro leading by 7

[Eraserhead]

It’s over. Lean R.

This is a contradiction.

He's just a little upset right now.

[Morning in Atlas]

Decimals have this at 46.3-45.5, so if we're rounding up the margin itself it's Fetterman+1.

Which still tracks. Fetterman's very lucky that a libertarian is running too.

[Person Man]

Decimals have this at 46.3-45.5, so it's not a total tie.

Fetterman by a few tracks.

Fetterman +1. lol

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Shapiro's going to win by at least 5 and I have a hard time seeing there being 5% of Shapiro/Oz voters. I think a lot of people might wind up voting Fetterman and hoping for a Shapiro appointment of Tom Wolf not long after.

Would you agree with that dynamic for Kemp/Walker? Or even Lake/Masters maybe?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Shapiro's going to win by at least 5 and I have a hard time seeing there being 5% of Shapiro/Oz voters. I think a lot of people might wind up voting Fetterman and hoping for a Shapiro appointment of Tom Wolf not long after.

Would you agree with that dynamic for Kemp/Walker? Or even Lake/Masters maybe?

If we don't flip a single Senate seat it's still 51/50 D and Trump can't steal Eday 24 be ause Shapiro is gonna be Gov, and Bob Casey Jr is on the ballot 24 so Trump won't win PA anyways

[Green Line]

Don’t worry, as soon as the media starts running with the puppy story he’s screwed.

[Morning in Atlas]

Decimals have this at 46.3-45.5, so it's not a total tie.

Fetterman by a few tracks.

Fetterman +1. lol

Let me cope.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

InsiderAdvantage Chairman Matt Towery says Fetterman’s shrinking lead was a result of self-described independent voters breaking for Oz by twenty points.

"Oz is also picking an unusually high 14% of the African American vote and Asians and Hispanics prefer Oz say they are voting for Oz by a wide margin. [sic] Fetterman continues to enjoy a ten-point lead among female voters, while men prefer Oz at that same rate," Towery explained.

Treat these crosstabs with caution, but I’ve long thought that the potential for an Oz overperformance in the Delaware Valley is very underrated. I think the county map/margins in PA-SEN will be the most atypical of any competitive Senate race this cycle.

I don't know how people thought "he's from New Jersey" was a game-changing path to landslide. Almost half of Eagles country is from New Jersey. They are very much part of the biggest city in the Pennsylvania and the Delaware Valley. People cross this line first established by God and re-established by man many times throughout their life.

It may not have moved the needle as much as Fetterman had thought but you can't convince me that didn't contribute to Ozs negative favorability

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Shapiro's going to win by at least 5 and I have a hard time seeing there being 5% of Shapiro/Oz voters. I think a lot of people might wind up voting Fetterman and hoping for a Shapiro appointment of Tom Wolf not long after.

Would you agree with that dynamic for Kemp/Walker? Or even Lake/Masters maybe?

Not quite. I think Warnock is well-regarded and respected enough that I think he'll have less difficulty getting over the line against a clownshoes like Walker. And I think Arizona is likely to be within 3% difference between the two races, with Lake overperforming a bit due to her strong local profile. Both could split, but neither race will be won by a margin like the one Shapiro is likely to get.

Also, none of those races have the potential "out" of Fetterman being replaced due to his health.

[wbrocks67]

The poll is actually Fetterman +1, not a tie, it's 46.3 - 45.5.

Man, the doomer-ism in here is one thing, but y'all are going off about a crosstab that has 36 (Hispanic) and 49 (black) people in it!

Statewide polling is going to have rough samples with minorities, but I think we can all agree an 85 person sample for minorities is just terrible. Thus, the sample with 36 hispanics gets a wonky result (Oz +60... which obviously is not happening)

Same thing with "Oz having strength with 14% of Blacks" .... it's a tab of 49 people. That's like, what, 6 people? lol

What I find interesting that people are ignoring here is the White vote... it's literally tied, again. If the white vote is anywhere close to tied, it's great news for Fetterman. And the n= is at least strong here, 465.

(not to mention IA is an R-leaning pollster)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is not necessarily a bad poll for Fetterman.

[wbrocks67]

The PA-GOV average is Shapiro +11 right now. You don't think that Shapiro +6 then is a little off from that? Or Shapiro getting only 30% of Independents sounds about right?

I mean, come on now.

But yes, the man (Oz) who - once again - cannot get past 45% in most polls - even in Republican leaning ones, is the one to beat here.

[win win]

its over folks
fetterman just lost

do u see 46-46 with 5 undecided
oz just won 51-46

[wbrocks67]

its over folks
fetterman just lost

do u see 46-46 with 5 undecided
oz just won 51-46

ugh yep. fetterman really flopping with that 16% vote among Hispanics. just so bad.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

its over folks
fetterman just lost

do u see 46-46 with 5 undecided
oz just won 51-46

ugh yep. fetterman really flopping with that 16% vote among Hispanics. just so bad.

16% among Latinos WTF

[Mr. Illini]

When will people on here learn? Anyone who said Dems were losing PA would’ve been labeled “doomer” now here we are.

Party is a joke.

A joke indeed.  Given their track record outside of presidential races since 2008, they would somehow manage to step in poop on a completely clean sidewalk.  

How do their “strategists” still have jobs for God’s sake.

Most of the strategists are over-educated hipsters who were raised in filthy rich households in the suburbs of a large east coast city. Isn’t it shocking that they have no idea what average people care about?

[Green Line]

Man, the doomer-ism in here is one thing, but y'all are going off about a crosstab that has 36 (Hispanic) and 49 (black) people in it!

Statewide polling is going to have rough samples with minorities, but I think we can all agree an 85 person sample for minorities is just terrible. Thus, the sample with 36 hispanics gets a wonky result (Oz +60... which obviously is not happening)

Same thing with "Oz having strength with 14% of Blacks" .... it's a tab of 49 people. That's like, what, 6 people? lol

These crosstabs are BS!

What I find interesting that people are ignoring here is the White vote... it's literally tied, again. If the white vote is anywhere close to tied, it's great news for Fetterman. And the n= is at least strong here, 465

BUT THESE CROSSTABS ARE REAL!!

[kwabbit]

The poll is actually Fetterman +1, not a tie, it's 46.3 - 45.5.

Man, the doomer-ism in here is one thing, but y'all are going off about a crosstab that has 36 (Hispanic) and 49 (black) people in it!

Statewide polling is going to have rough samples with minorities, but I think we can all agree an 85 person sample for minorities is just terrible. Thus, the sample with 36 hispanics gets a wonky result (Oz +60... which obviously is not happening)

Same thing with "Oz having strength with 14% of Blacks" .... it's a tab of 49 people. That's like, what, 6 people? lol

What I find interesting that people are ignoring here is the White vote... it's literally tied, again. If the white vote is anywhere close to tied, it's great news for Fetterman. And the n= is at least strong here, 465.

(not to mention IA is an R-leaning pollster)

Of course as a proportion the White vote share has a small margin of error. However, in absolute terms it doesn’t. A 5% sampling error on the White vote causes as much of a shift in the top line as a 25% sampling error in the minority vote. You can’t hold the White % fixed and correct the minority cross tabs.

Trump won the White vote in PA by 15 points, so if you’re gonna play the cross tab game that should raise some eyebrows. I know the ‘other’ category has obviously inaccurate/weird results, and that a tie in the White vote seems more plausible because the state as a whole is tied, but you have to realize that a 15pt swing wouldn’t happen either.

Most of this can be attributed to the fact that IA is a mediocre pollster. It doesn’t seem like they weight by education, which is why they likely have the Democrats doing so well among Whites. They counter that by finding an extremely unrepresentative minority sample (which is a common theme among R pollsters, such as Trafalgar).