PA: Insider Advantage: Tie
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Author Topic: PA: Insider Advantage: Tie  (Read 2113 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: October 20, 2022, 12:14:07 PM »
« edited: October 20, 2022, 12:18:34 PM by gracile »

New Poll: Pennsylvania Senator by Insider Advantage on 2022-10-20

Summary: D: 46%, R: 46%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Person Man
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« Reply #1 on: October 20, 2022, 12:21:20 PM »

Like I said if both Walker and Oz win, I’m becoming an Independent. If enough voters do that, they will listen. At the very least, all the senior Dems have to go before I join the party again.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
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« Reply #2 on: October 20, 2022, 12:26:38 PM »

Hopefully Shapiro drags Fetterman over the finish line.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #3 on: October 20, 2022, 12:27:29 PM »

It’s over. Lean R.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #4 on: October 20, 2022, 12:28:48 PM »

Like I said if both Walker and Oz win, I’m becoming an Independent. If enough voters do that, they will listen. At the very least, all the senior Dems have to go before I join the party again.

Needs to be a full dumping of current Dem leadership.  Pelosi, Hoyer, Clyburn, and Schumer all need to go.  Thank goodness that Biden is probably the last of his type that could be nominated in a Dem primary for president.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #5 on: October 20, 2022, 12:29:38 PM »

Like I said if both Walker and Oz win, I’m becoming an Independent. If enough voters do that, they will listen. At the very least, all the senior Dems have to go before I join the party again.

Yeah and this an exit poll no it's not

Needs to be a full dumping of current Dem leadership.  Pelosi, Biden, Clyburn, and Schumer all need to go.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #6 on: October 20, 2022, 12:29:57 PM »
« Edited: October 20, 2022, 12:33:16 PM by MT Treasurer »

Quote
InsiderAdvantage Chairman Matt Towery says Fetterman’s shrinking lead was a result of self-described independent voters breaking for Oz by twenty points.

"Oz is also picking an unusually high 14% of the African American vote and Asians and Hispanics prefer Oz say they are voting for Oz by a wide margin. [sic] Fetterman continues to enjoy a ten-point lead among female voters, while men prefer Oz at that same rate," Towery explained.

Treat these crosstabs with caution, but I’ve long thought that the potential for an Oz overperformance in the Delaware Valley is very underrated. I think the county map/margins in PA-SEN will be the most atypical of any competitive Senate race this cycle.
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #7 on: October 20, 2022, 12:30:23 PM »

Tossup remains a tossup.

With Oz having the clear momentum.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #8 on: October 20, 2022, 12:31:06 PM »

Like I said if both Walker and Oz win, I’m becoming an Independent. If enough voters do that, they will listen. At the very least, all the senior Dems have to go before I join the party again.

Needs to be a full dumping of current Dem leadership.  Pelosi, Biden, Clyburn, and Schumer all need to go.

This. Say what you will about the GOP, but they're smart to switch up their leadership every couple cycles. The Dems just keep letting the same old dinosaurs run them into the ground.

Regarding this race, Oz will win by 3-4 points.
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PPT Spiral
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« Reply #9 on: October 20, 2022, 12:33:00 PM »

Quote
InsiderAdvantage Chairman Matt Towery says Fetterman’s shrinking lead was a result of self-described independent voters breaking for Oz by twenty points.

"Oz is also picking an unusually high 14% of the African American vote and Asians and Hispanics prefer Oz say they are voting for Oz by a wide margin. [sic] Fetterman continues to enjoy a ten-point lead among female voters, while men prefer Oz at that same rate," Towery explained.

Treat these crosstabs with caution, but I’ve long thought that the potential for an Oz overperformance in the Delaware Valley is very underrated. I think the county map/margins in PA-SEN will be the most atypical of any competitive Senate race.

For the most atypical candidate pair, bound to happen. Oz likely will benefit from his TV presence in some areas, even if it is a small bump from standard GOP performances.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #10 on: October 20, 2022, 12:33:53 PM »

Quote
InsiderAdvantage Chairman Matt Towery says Fetterman’s shrinking lead was a result of self-described independent voters breaking for Oz by twenty points.

"Oz is also picking an unusually high 14% of the African American vote and Asians and Hispanics prefer Oz say they are voting for Oz by a wide margin. [sic] Fetterman continues to enjoy a ten-point lead among female voters, while men prefer Oz at that same rate," Towery explained.

Treat these crosstabs with caution, but I’ve long thought that the potential for an Oz overperformance in the Delaware Valley is very underrated. I think the county map/margins in PA-SEN will be the most atypical of any competitive Senate race.

I still think Oz will have issues breaking through in ChesCo and Delco (especially the latter), but it wouldn't shock me if he improved on Trump's margins there.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #11 on: October 20, 2022, 12:37:44 PM »

Isn't Insider Advantage generally pretty Republican friendly in their polling results?

Either way, gonna be a long night I guess.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #12 on: October 20, 2022, 12:38:56 PM »

Oz is a moderate not a conservative that's why we have OH, NC, FL because Barnes or Warnock may lose but I doubt that we lose PA with Shapiro up by
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #13 on: October 20, 2022, 12:39:25 PM »

I still think Oz will have issues breaking through in ChesCo and Delco (especially the latter), but it wouldn't shock me if he improved on Trump's margins there.

I agree on DelCo, but I think the Fetterman camp is seriously underestimating the potential for a D<80% result in Philadelphia, and in a close race that could mean game over for them. I think Fetterman could make it up in other parts of the state in a more D-friendly environment, but it will be much harder this year.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #14 on: October 20, 2022, 12:39:41 PM »
« Edited: October 20, 2022, 12:43:20 PM by Mr.Phips »

If Dems lose this race, they are going to have come to terms with the fact that they probably won’t control the senate again this decade.  That means that miss the chance to replace Thomas, Alito, and Roberts.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #15 on: October 20, 2022, 12:40:52 PM »

Isn't Insider Advantage generally pretty Republican friendly in their polling results?

Either way, gonna be a long night I guess.

I think they had Trump winning PA by a point in their last poll before Election Day 2020....but I might be misremembering. 
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GALeftist
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« Reply #16 on: October 20, 2022, 12:42:47 PM »

How many times do people need to get burned by crosstabs before accepting that most of them are unadulterated junk?

Anyway, this doesn't change my perception of the race, especially given that Insider Advantage is usually R friendly and this poll was like 0.1 in either direction from being rounded to Fetterman+1. Pure tossup. Gun to my head Fetterman still wins; I'll change that analysis if Oz leads a semi-decent poll.
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Person Man
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« Reply #17 on: October 20, 2022, 12:43:43 PM »

If Dems lose this race, they are going to have come to terms with the fact that they probably won’t control the senate again this decade.

If they lose in 2024, I would prematurely rate 2030 that time. I guess mathematically it would be in this decade?
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #18 on: October 20, 2022, 12:49:13 PM »

If Dems lose this race, they are going to have come to terms with the fact that they probably won’t control the senate again this decade.

If they lose in 2024, I would prematurely rate 2030 that time. I guess mathematically it would be in this decade?

If they win 2024, it still wouldn’t be any sooner than 2030.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #19 on: October 20, 2022, 12:49:53 PM »

Awwwww, I knew this was going to come. Probably can go either way. Fetterman on average is still ahead, but the trendline clear. Moving this to Tilt Democratic and might even be a pure tossup at this point (again).

It's so annoying the Republican often gain in the final weeks and days. I'm not a doomer, but being one at least keeps your expectations low. Meh.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #20 on: October 20, 2022, 12:52:24 PM »

This is the first poll that I can think of that does not show Fetterman leading. Pennsylvania has tightened considerably over the last month, and this is in line with other recent polls in that regard. I think we're going to get a poll with Oz leading very soon.
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kwabbit
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« Reply #21 on: October 20, 2022, 12:54:19 PM »

Isn't Insider Advantage generally pretty Republican friendly in their polling results?

Either way, gonna be a long night I guess.

I think they had Trump winning PA by a point in their last poll before Election Day 2020....but I might be misremembering. 

That was for the "Center for American Greatness" IIRC, so it was R-sponsored. This is non-partisan. They've found good results for the GOP this cycle, but it's not like 2020 when they basically served as an alt-Trafalgar.
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #22 on: October 20, 2022, 12:56:53 PM »

When will people on here learn? Anyone who said Dems were losing PA would’ve been labeled “doomer” now here we are.

Party is a joke.
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Ron DeSantis enthusiast
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« Reply #23 on: October 20, 2022, 12:59:19 PM »

I still think Fetterman has some Tilt advantage, but is clear that Oz has some momentum.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #24 on: October 20, 2022, 01:00:34 PM »

When will people on here learn? Anyone who said Dems were losing PA would’ve been labeled “doomer” now here we are.

Party is a joke.

A joke indeed.  Given their track record outside of presidential races since 2008, they would somehow manage to step in poop on a completely clean sidewalk.  

How do their “strategists” still have jobs for God’s sake.
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