PA Gubernatorial Race 2006

[Smash255]

Rendell is going to be very, very tough to beat. I wouldn't bet against him. But I hope he loses all the same.

It will be tough but many SE PA Dems like to look at Rendell as this absolutley unbeatable force. He is not a lock for re-election. If someone says, "I think he's going to win." Fine. I'll disagree. But don't start with this "Oh he won't have any problems."

Wow, I learn something new everyday! All of my neighbors HATE Ed Rendell! Whoa, I didn't know I lived by so many flaming Republicans! (Sarcasm)

Instead of being a clown, answer this question: Is Ed Rendell liked as much as he was in 2002 right now in the western part of the state?

Probably not, but it evens out, he is probably more popular in SE PA now than he was 4 years ago as well

[Smash255]

Rendell is going to be very, very tough to beat. I wouldn't bet against him. But I hope he loses all the same.

It will be tough but many SE PA Dems like to look at Rendell as this absolutley unbeatable force. He is not a lock for re-election. If someone says, "I think he's going to win." Fine. I'll disagree. But don't start with this "Oh he won't have any problems."

Wow, I learn something new everyday! All of my neighbors HATE Ed Rendell! Whoa, I didn't know I lived by so many flaming Republicans! (Sarcasm)

Instead of being a clown, answer this question: Is Ed Rendell liked as much as he was in 2002 right now in the western part of the state?

Probably not, but it evens out, he is probably more popular in SE PA now than he was 4 years ago as well

No he's not. You really don't know this area. Is he still popular here? Yes. More popular? No.

Going up against someone like Swann he would do worse than he did in 2002 iN Western PA, but better than what he did in 02 in SE PA

[Smash255]

Apologize if this has been discussed, but what is with Rendell havina PA red in his banners.  Is it some sort of coincidence or some other message?  Just wondering because  the red state like that could imply close to Bush.  Which is not a good idea considering Bush's ugly PA numbers.

[Smash255]

The is elephant in the parlor that no one talking about, race.  If Swan can get a proportion of the African American vote in Phila, better than Bush's, it suddenly becomes a dead even race.  He gets 25% of the Black vote, holds Fisher's base, Swan wins.

I think that would be quite hard for him to do.  Being African American may help him pull in a bit more of the Philly black vote than Bush did, but its highley unlikley he will get 25%.  One factor is African Americans in Philly just like most the country are very heavily Democratic, and African American republicans generally don't do that will with African Americans (look at the numbers Steele is getting froM African American's in a race against Cardin).  Another key factor why it will be very hard for Swann to pull that off is the fact that Rendell is very very  popular in Philadelphia across all racial lines & has has very strong African American support in the city.  Now if Rendell wasn't as popular in Philly as he is, didn't have the past connections to the city even before being Govenor as he has than their might be a better shot. 

In order to win Swann would pretty much need 25% of the African American Philly vote.  Simply being African American isn't going to get him that.  Swann being a Republican greatly hurts him at acheving that as does Rendell's immense popularity in the city, his past connections to the city, etc.

[Smash255]

In order to win Swann would pretty much need 25% of the African American Philly vote.  Simply being African American isn't going to get him that.  Swann being a Republican greatly hurts him at acheving that as does Rendell's immense popularity in the city, his past connections to the city, etc.

His chances of doing it are a lot better than if he were Irish.  He'll pull some, just on race.  The "base" Black GOP vote in PA is 9-11% percent.  A Black candidate might be able to double that.  That is a big chunk of Rendell's margin of victory.

Then there is the factor that Black candidates tend to do a bit better with liberals.

Granted, but Rendell's  sheer approval #'s in Philly, and his past connections to Philly makes it quite a bit tougher for Swann than it otherwise would be.

[Smash255]

In order to win Swann would pretty much need 25% of the African American Philly vote.  Simply being African American isn't going to get him that.  Swann being a Republican greatly hurts him at acheving that as does Rendell's immense popularity in the city, his past connections to the city, etc.

His chances of doing it are a lot better than if he were Irish.  He'll pull some, just on race.  The "base" Black GOP vote in PA is 9-11% percent.  A Black candidate might be able to double that.  That is a big chunk of Rendell's margin of victory.

Then there is the factor that Black candidates tend to do a bit better with liberals.

Granted, but Rendell's  sheer approval #'s in Philly, and his past connections to Philly makes it quite a bit tougher for Swann than it otherwise would be.

We are not talking about that much of a gain and a portion of that black population does not live in SEPA.  Also, Rendell really hasn't done anything for Phila as Governor.  It make a likely Rendell victory a toss-up.

We have seen in other cases that Frican Americans tend to vote heavily Democratic even if the Democrat is white & Republican is black (look at some of the polls coming out of MD with blacks in the Cardin/ Steele race.  Also while you might thuink Rendell hasn't done much for Philly, and some of the black population is outside of SEPA, their is no denying the fact that Rendell has monster #'s there, even for an area thats strongly Dem to begin with his numbers in SEPA are very impressive, which makes Swann picking up 25% of the African American Philly vote quite difficult

[Smash255]

Quinnipiac shows Rendell up 24 points.

I would say its a safe bet to say this one is locked up.

[Smash255]

Quinnipiac shows Rendell up 24 points.

I would say its a safe bet to say this one is locked up.

I wouldn't trust Quinnipiac that much and I would have to wait until the air campaign starts.

In both 1994 and 2002, at this point, the loser was leading.

I'm not basing it off of Quinnipiac as much as the rest of the polls.  Also keep in mind both the 94 & 02 elections didn't involve incumbents, and open elections tradiotnally are more likely to swing back & forth in the run up to Election Day than a race with a sitting Incumbent.

[Smash255]

2.  Has "Fast Eddie" challenged Swann to a debate yet?  Or is it the other way around?

I haven't heard any serious debate challenges yet. They both would want it because Swann needs to rebound (a debate will let him put some ideas out there) but Rendell sees a debate as a way to finish off Swann (Rendell is regarded as the better speaker).

Quinnipiac shows Rendell up 24 points.

I would say its a safe bet to say this one is locked up.

Yeah, I would say it's safe to say that the last time you idiots thought that, Swann came back. Swann's in some trouble now but he can surprise.

However, keep in mind that Rendell is in much better shape now when those other comments were made.  The approval polls and matchup polls are all much better for Rendell now than when the original locked up comments were made.

[Smash255]

Quinnipiac shows Rendell up 24 points.

I would say its a safe bet to say this one is locked up.

I wouldn't trust Quinnipiac that much and I would have to wait until the air campaign starts.

In both 1994 and 2002, at this point, the loser was leading.

I'm not basing it off of Quinnipiac as much as the rest of the polls.  Also keep in mind both the 94 & 02 elections didn't involve incumbents, and open elections tradiotnally are more likely to swing back & forth in the run up to Election Day than a race with a sitting Incumbent.

I know the incumbent factor, but these things shift, greatly, at this point.  Even 1982, Ertel was trailing badly, and closed within the last month (and almost won it).

Things can change, however at this point Rendell's chances are VERY VERY good, and it doesn't look like its going to change.