2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Person Man]

75K Reps lead now

Slowing waaaay down. Love the see it. And that’s WITHOUT Miami Dade and Sarasota.

Yep, quite good news

Also I wish people would post the total vote totals with percentages with this data, the higher turnout the more you need a larger margin to reach some of the desired partisan ID rates for both sides

Biden is probably fine if he could keep it under 400k.

[Person Man]

View of Florida at start of day:

Dem  3,548,112 or 66.6% turnout   +115,416
Rep   3,432,696 or 66.4% turrout    

At 11am (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,705,868  or 69.9%       -57,563
Rep   3,763,431  or 72.8%

Strong Rep push this morn

That margin is a likely Biden win, right, given the Indy split and crossovers? How much do Rs need to be ahead to feel good?

They normally are about 400k IIRC and the NYT poll had them up at like 200k-300k.

[Person Man]

If I'm understanding correctly, so far Republicans are winning the ED vote in Florida 50-25-25? From the counties reporting registration #s at least.

Republicans will likely come out with a half-million lead after election day overall, but it's the Indys that will decide it.

Election day will likely add another 1-2 million in FL, and those skew 50-25-25 Republican.

Good night.

That nets them just what they need in the best case case for them.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/FSURich/status/1323690076266762240

Nice

That’s Tallahassee. It’s going D. By a lot.

[Person Man]

AZ: https://www.saguarostrategies.com/arizona-ballot-returns

R 1,025,991 (+42,204)
D   983,787
O   711,727

I think Trump takes Florida and Arizona tonight. I am a little worried about the rust belt and North Carolina but it will be a lot closer then the rats think.

That’s not that good out west

[Person Man]

Tick tock. Not much time left for Trump to get to 400,000.

Or even 300k.

To clarify, Trump doesn't necessarily need +300k or +400k to win FL; he could win it with fewer. Failing to reach those targets makes the road much more difficult and likely makes him the underdog, however.

He's definitely not making it to either of those numbers IMO.  Unless the updates aren't close to current.

And how many raw votes are there? There were 9.4 in 16 and 8 and change in 18. We are getting just south of 11 now. A 400k deficit probably matters even less now.

[Person Man]

GOP Florida Turnout advantage at the end of early voting was around -129,000

2:41 Pm update: +133,11 (not including a few counties that manually report including Miami-Dade
In Miami, Dems entered today with 40.7% of votes cast being Democrats, 30.7% Republicans.
Today, 35% Dems, 31% republicans.

GOP outperforming 2016 turnout in wwc areas and latinx areas and Dems doing well in Suburbia, especially Seminole.

Florida is an enigma. No matter what, a candidate makes gains with one group and loses ground in another. It's astonishing. It's like the people of Florida have some unspoken agreement to make every race under 2%.

 ... concealed in a mystery, hidden in a riddle, ... chugged Smoked by  the dude.

[Person Man]

I think people need to be careful about Florida. It is likely there will be a surge from 5-7 in voting.

Do we have any information on who will vote in those times?

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323728684482703365?s=20

Gain of just 16K versus 230

Tick tock

 If Biden only has Clinton '16 type lead than Trump has already erased it.

Didn’t he have like 600k more Republicans coming out that day?

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1323721672097062912

Awful news for Trump

Awful for McSally, as well. 

This is what the NYT thought would be happening when they said Trump was down 3? 4?

[Person Man]

Unfortunately, it looks like Trump will lose the election. What a sad day for the world.

Sad!

Not sad for me...

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1323758217772617739?s=20

Not enough. Trump’s going down, Bugs Bunny can spare Florida.

Not even close. Biden +2-3.

[Person Man]

also, college-educated is at 45%, up from 40% in 2016

   
clinton
trump
other/no answer
high school or less
18%
46%   51%   3%
some college
32%
43%   51%   6%
college graduate
32%
49%   44%   7%
postgraduate
18%
58%   37%   5%

False atleast for CNN

College turnout is no way higher than 2016, thats impossible, higher turnout means more non college voters are turning out.

There are ton load of middle class And upper middle class people who don’t vote.

[Person Man]

RIP polls: 1936-2020

Or there was a lot of fraud somewhere. Who knows. Maybe things will go back to normal with Trump out of the equation.

[Person Man]

If Biden doesn't win Pennsylvania, and squeaks out a 270 win... All it'd take is ONE faithless elector to ruin everything. Just ONE attention-seeker. ONE person out of 270 who wants to be make a name for themselves.

Then the country does burn....

[Person Man]

fink nooooo

Huh?

[Person Man]

The minimum wage initiative has passed in Florida - cleared the 60% threshold.

Time for a purge of the FDP.

How do you think this changes things in the future?

[Person Man]

fink nooooo

Huh?

Finkenauer lost in IA-01.

The House was pretty bad for Dems all around. We lost a lot of good freshman from Cunningham in SC to Horn in OK to Quetzalcoatl Small in NM. RIP FFs

Cunningham lost? Damn

How many seats will we have at the end of this?

[Person Man]

Is there any chance that something really bad happens in Nevada?

[Person Man]

How is everyone feeling about Biden's chances right now?

And about Trump's chances?

If he can’t make up the margin in Nevada, he’s gone.

[Person Man]

While it probably won't hold, the GOP is currently leading in 218 House seats.

Losing the house would be the death of the Democratic Party.

[Person Man]

Biden lead in MI up to 32k.

The most glorious news I've had since he pulled ahead in Wisconsin about 7 hours ago, possibly all night.

With Michigan that hits 270, even if Trump carries Pennsylvania and Georgia.

It feels like Crash Landing a plane that's on fire, but a win is a win

And we are confident in Nevada?

[Person Man]

If PA and GA are good, it’s actually a plausible result given the polls. It would be similar to what happened in 2016 but this time it’s not enough.

[Person Man]

Atlas was mocking Ralston for saying Nevada would matter.

 Ralston was right.

When do we get the dump today?

[Person Man]

M A R - A - L A G O   J O E

Oh this is great, im gonna keep quoting Rafe sh**t tier poster who just ruined the quality of this board with his sh**t random one liners.

Don't forget Wyoming Joe (don't know what thread that was).

There is a Cowboy Joe.