Joe Biden 2020 campaign megathread v3 (pg 45 - mass-dropout aftermath)

[Annatar]

Biden's electability argument I would argue continues to erode with each passing month as his numbers continue to decline among the independent voters.

His net favourability numbers have basically converged with Sanders now whilst they were higher a few months ago, in the latest CNN poll he has now dropped below Bernie, his net fav was -8 vs -1 for Bernie. Among independents his net fav was -11 vs +2 for Bernie.

There is also the fact that the other argument people made for Biden, namely that he was polling well vs Trump has basically disappeared. In October there were 9 H2H polls an Biden's average lead was 10.2%, in November there were 2 so the sample size is to small to draw any conclusions, in December there have been 6 and Biden's lead has averaged 4.5%.

The more people see of Biden the more they dislike him, he's basically a more anaemic version of Hillary. Bernie I would say is the best candidate in the field right now that the democrats have.

[Annatar]

Biden's electability argument I would argue continues to erode with each passing month as his numbers continue to decline among the independent voters.

His net favourability numbers have basically converged with Sanders now whilst they were higher a few months ago, in the latest CNN poll he has now dropped below Bernie, his net fav was -8 vs -1 for Bernie. Among independents his net fav was -11 vs +2 for Bernie.

There is also the fact that the other argument people made for Biden, namely that he was polling well vs Trump has basically disappeared. In October there were 9 H2H polls an Biden's average lead was 10.2%, in November there were 2 so the sample size is to small to draw any conclusions, in December there have been 6 and Biden's lead has averaged 4.5%.

The more people see of Biden the more they dislike him, he's basically a more anaemic version of Hillary. Bernie I would say is the best candidate in the field right now that the democrats have.

In this same poll, Biden STILL did better than Bernie in the Trump H2H. I would also add that Bernie and Biden usually have identical favorables, and any edge for Bernie comes from his heightened numbers with democrats (who would vote for Biden anyway).

The trend over the past few months has been worse for Biden than Bernie though, and in the CNN poll, Bernie's higher numbers were not just a result of higher favourables with dems but because he was more popular with independents.

[Annatar]

The last time a party won control of the WH from the other party running a candidate with a lot of experience in DC was Nixon in 1968, since than, both parties have only won control of the WH by running candidates who had not spent a lot of time in DC. The fact Biden has spent so long in DC and is viewed a part of the establishment is one of the strongest arguments against his ability to win. Doubly so in an era where populism is rife and anti-establishment feeling is running high among swing voters.

[Annatar]

One group of people that are probably really angry now are all the candidates that got no traction because Biden was there, people like Cory Booker, its kind of funny how Biden arguably blocked stronger candidates from gaining any ground only to basically collapse at the end himself.

[Annatar]

I guess its time for me to stop tracking Biden vs Trump polls state by state as it seems Biden is finished, it looks like it will be a Trump vs Bernie contest. Trump has knocked out the democratic candidate that has polled the best against him on average it seems, the attacks over Ukraine surely helped weaken Biden.