2009 State and Federal elections in Germany

[Hans-im-Glück]

They already do. It's called the stock exchanges, remember?

Sorry i forget it

[minionofmidas]

Seems that it's just one Dresden precinct that's out, and only the list vote at that. But the presentation at the city site is such that I cannot calculate that constituency's result (sans the one precinct.) Damn.

[Franzl]

In the moment i look TV and in ARD is Guido Westerwelle. I'm shortly before to barf When this is a minister after the 27Th of September then good night Germany. Then it's better to choose the Political decisions in casino.

I'd actually like him as a minister

[minionofmidas]

Lol, and it's in as I type.

Final result:

Turnout 52.2 (-7.4)

CDU 40.2 (-0.9)
Left 20.6 (-3.0)
SPD 10.4 (+0.6)
FDP 10.0 (+4.1)
9.953, actually.
Greens 6.4 (+1.3)
NPD 5.6 (-3.6)

Oh, and the CDU managed to poll exactly 723,000 votes.

[Hans-im-Glück]

Seems that it's just one Dresden precinct that's out, and only the list vote at that. But the presentation at the city site is such that I cannot calculate that constituency's result (sans the one precinct.) Damn.

Lewis,all sachsen constituency's are finished

[minionofmidas]

Theoretical seat entitlement:

CDU 52
Left 27
SPD 13
FDP 13
Greens 8
NPD 7

But as the CDU won 58 direct seats, it gets all these 58 seats and parliament is expanded to the smallest size that would entitle the CDU to that number of seats.

If my math is correct, that's 133:
CDU 58
Left 29
SPD 15
FDP 14
Greens 9
NPD 8

[Hans-im-Glück]

In the moment i look TV and in ARD is Guido Westerwelle. I'm shortly before to barf When this is a minister after the 27Th of September then good night Germany. Then it's better to choose the Political decisions in casino.

I'd actually like him as a minister

Franzl, we are complete different. Maybe you are born rich, because all "poor people" I can say: When a non-rich man vote for the FDP it's like a pig vote for the butcher

[minionofmidas]

Franzl, we are complete different. Maybe you are born rich, because all "poor people" I can say: When a non-rich man vote for the FDP it's like a pig vote for the butcher

Quite a few people do, though. It's not the second half of the 90s anymore.

[minionofmidas]

registered voters 3 509 195        3 554 542 
voters    1 830 815    52,2    2 118 792    59,6    -7,4
      CDU    723 000    40,2    855 203    41,1    -0,9
      DIE LINKE    370 199    20,6    490 488    23,6    -3,0
      SPD    187 222    10,4    204 438    9,8    0,6
      NPD    100 832    5,6    190 909    9,2    -3,6
      FDP    178 869    10,0    122 605    5,9    4,1
      GRÜNE    114 984    6,4    106 771   5,1   1,3

Sorry for copy-and-past format. Just showing the actual gains and losses in terms of raw votes.

[Hans-im-Glück]

registered voters 3 509 195        3 554 542 
voters    1 830 815    52,2    2 118 792    59,6    -7,4
      CDU    723 000    40,2    855 203    41,1    -0,9
      DIE LINKE    370 199    20,6    490 488    23,6    -3,0
      SPD    187 222    10,4    204 438    9,8    0,6
      NPD    100 832    5,6    190 909    9,2    -3,6
      FDP    178 869    10,0    122 605    5,9    4,1
      GRÜNE    114 984    6,4    106 771   5,1   1,3

Sorry for copy-and-past format. Just showing the actual gains and losses in terms of raw votes.

Only the FDP and the Greens are winners, all other are losers

[Franzl]

In the moment i look TV and in ARD is Guido Westerwelle. I'm shortly before to barf When this is a minister after the 27Th of September then good night Germany. Then it's better to choose the Political decisions in casino.

I'd actually like him as a minister

Franzl, we are complete different. Maybe you are born rich, because all "poor people" I can say: When a non-rich man vote for the FDP it's like a pig vote for the butcher

Well I'm not rich by any means,

But I think it's a mistake to believe that all FDP policies are designed to "butcher" the poor. (Although, sure, lefties will believe that )

I still don't see why having Westerwelle as foreign minister, even if you dislike FDP economics, would mean "Good Night" for Germany. I think he makes a rather competent and intelligent impression.

[minionofmidas]

Saxony has a law that limits the number of equalizing mandates to, at maximum, the same number as the number of overhang mandates. Which means that the Landtag will have 132 members, not 133, and 64 seats are distributed proportionally to all the party's except the CDU.

The end result is that the SPD doesn't have more seats than the FDP after all - 14 each. If I were Marie-Luise Apostel (No. 15 on the SPD list), I would be very angry right now.

[minionofmidas]

election.de mentions that Thuringia was the first time since 1951 that CDU and SPD together polled less than 50% of the votes in a Landtag election.

[minionofmidas]

North Rhine Westphalia

statewide aggregate:
turnout 52.3 (-2.1)

CDU 38.6 (-4.8)
SPD 29.4 (-2.3)
Greens 12.0 (+1.7)
FDP 9.2 (+2.4)
Left 4.4 (+3.0)
diverse indy lists 4.9 (+0.1)
remainder: diverse minor parties

Seats (districts and indy cities, excl. Aachen which has lost its indy status and has some sort of spesh status within a Cities Region Aachen consisting of the city and the former Aachen "rural" district):

CDU 511 (-83)
SPD 511 (-27)
Greens 206 (+30)
FDP 124 (+34)
Left 81 (+47)

pro NRW 12 (+12)
REP 6 (-10)
NPD 4 (+2)
ödp 4 (-1)
DKP 3 (-2)
Pirates 2 (+2)
DVU 1 (-2)
Zentrum (wtf?) 1 (+1)
AMP (who?) 0 (-1)
indy slates 88 (-18 compared to "other")

[minionofmidas]

Ah whatev', info overload. This is ordered a) by RB b) cities then districts c) alphabetically. Because NRW has constituencies in municipal elections too, some of these councils got larger or smaller due to overhang seats.

Düsseldorf (overhang in 09) CDU 39 (+2), SPD 22 (-3), Greens 14 (+4), FDP 9 (+4), Left 5 (+3), indy slate 2 (0), REP 1 (0)

Duisburg SPD 29 (+1), CDU 25 (-2), Greens 6 (-1), Left 6 (+2), diverse indy slates 5 (+2), FDP 3 (0), REP 0 (-1), AMP 0 (-1)

Essen SPD 31 (+3), CDU 26 (-6), Greens 9 (0), FDP 5 (+2), Left 5 (+3), an indy slate 3 (-2), REP 1 (-1), NPD 1 (+1), another indy slate 1 (+1), DKP 0 (-1)

Krefeld (overhang in 04) CDU 21 (-5), SPD 18 (0), Greens 8 (0), FDP 6 (0), Left 2 (+2), diverse indies 3 (-1)

Meh. This is too much like work.

[Jens]

What's going to happen in Thüringen? A grand coalition because SPD cannot accept to be junior partner in a Linke-led coalition?

[Franzl]

What's going to happen in Thüringen? A grand coalition because SPD cannot accept to be junior partner in a Linke-led coalition?

The problem is that a grand coalition doesn't have a majority!

[minionofmidas]

Saar by district:

Stadtverband Saarbrücken
turnout 64.6 (+10.9)
CDU 31.2 (-12.4)
Left 24.3 (+21.2)
SPD 24.3 (-6.6)
FDP 9.3 (+3.7)
Greens 6.8 (-0.4, gain in raw votes)

Well duh, it's identical to the constituency.

Saarlouis
turnout 68.8 (+14.5)
CDU 35.6 (-12.6)
SPD 22.9 (-9.0)
Left 20.5 (+18.4)
FDP 10.3 (+4.4)
Greens 6.3 (+1.4)

Merzig-Wadern
turnout 69.4 (+11.9)
CDU 37.8 (-15.5)
SPD 24.9 (-4.2, gain in raw votes)
Left 21.4 (+19.7)
FDP 9.5 (+4.8)
Greens 5.3 (+0.5)

St Wendel
turnout 73.5 (+9.5)
CDU 41.6 (-13.5)
SPD 25.7 (-2.7, gain in raw votes)
Left 17.2 (+15.6)
FDP 7.4 (+3.9)
Greens 4.3 (0)

Neunkirchen
turnout 67.3 (+12.8)
CDU 32.2 (-12.9)
SPD 28.3 (-7.1)
Left 23.2 (+19.8)
FDP 7.5 (+3.3)
Greens 4.4 (+0.1)

Saarpfalz
turnout 68.0 (+12.9)
CDU 34.9 (-12.4)
SPD 22.8 (-5.4)
Left 19.6 (+17.6)
FDP 10.0 (+4.3)
Greens 6.3 (+0.2)

What's going to happen in Thüringen? A grand coalition because SPD cannot accept to be junior partner in a Linke-led coalition?

The problem is that a grand coalition doesn't have a majority! ;)

It does in terms of seats. It also has more votes than red-red.

[Hans-im-Glück]

What's going to happen in Thüringen? A grand coalition because SPD cannot accept to be junior partner in a Linke-led coalition?

The problem is that a grand coalition doesn't have a majority!

That's wrong. CDU and SPD have the majority together .

There are many answers for Thüringen. The Linke can say the SPD can be the PM and the Linke get more minister or they make the Israeli solution (2,5 years Matschie and 2,5 years one of the Linke). It is possible that Ramelow (Linke) get PM and the SPD more minister or the SPD can in the Bundesrat vote like they want.

[minionofmidas]

Half the cabinet seats for the SPD. Counting the PM as a cabinet seat. That ought to be the theoretical maximum the SPD can get out of the deal. Matschie might have to not be a member of cabinet in order to "keep his word".

Althaus is insisting that he may form a Grand Coalition. I don't see it. That would be hilariously stupid by the SPD to go along with. Now... if Althaus retired... that might change things. But I guess he's hoping to survive Koch style.

The fact that red-red has a majority of its own at least removes Jamaica as an option (not that that kept journalists from still bringing up this morning! ) though it also means the Greens can sit out the negotiations and "keep their word"... if both parties were needed that might actually make things easier for the SPD. Quite apart from the fact that 45-43 is a fairly instable government. You need every singe MdL to go along.
So the Left actually won slightly too big for its own good.

[minionofmidas]

List of Greens' >5 list vote results in Saxony:

1    Dresden 3    18,0
2    Leipzig 1    16,3
3    Leipzig 4    15,9
4    Leipzig 2    14,6
5    Dresden 2    14,1
6    Dresden 5    13,7
7    Dresden 1    11,8
8    Leipzig 6    10,4
9    Dresden 4    10,3
10    Dresden 6    9,8
11    Chemnitz 1    8,5
12    Meißen 2    8,0
13    Chemnitz 2    7,1
14    Leipzig 5    6,7
15    Chemnitz 3    6,6
16    Leipzig 7    6,5
17    Plauen    6,3
18    Görlitz    6,0
19    Leipzig 3    5,9
20    Leipziger Land 2    5,6
21    Meißen 1    5,5
22    Weißeritzkreis 1    5,3
23    Sächsische Schweiz 1    5,1
24    Muldental 1    5,1
25    Zwickau    5,0
26    Weißeritzkreis 2    5,0

Yep, that's just one non-urban constituency among the top 19.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yep, that's just one non-urban constituency among the top 19.

Presumably the one in Sächsische Schweiz?

[minionofmidas]

Yep, that's just one non-urban constituency among the top 19.

Presumably the one in Sächsische Schweiz?

That's not top 19.

No, I was talking of Meißen 2. Although that's arguably urban... that's the old towns downstream from Dresden. (Just as that Sächsische Schweiz district has some nonaffluent Dresden suburbia. Perhaps a majority of the population, actually.) Looking things over... all the districts not in a city (including the smaller cities of Plauen, Zwickau, Görlitz) on here are quite close to either Dresden or Leipzig.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That's not top 19.

Yeah, I read too quickly sometimes...

[minionofmidas]

Same list, Thuringia:

15.4 Jena I
14.8 Weimar
14.4 Erfurt III
11.5 Erfurt II
11.3 Jena II
8.4 Erfurt IV
7.6 Wartburg II - Eisenach
6.9 Nordhausen II
6.7 Ilm I
6.6 Weimarer Land I - Saalfeld-Rudolstadt III
6.5 Ilm II
6.1 Gera I
5.9 Schmalkalden-Meiningen I
5.8 Erfurt I
5.8 Suhl - Schmalkalden-Meiningen III
5.7 Gotha II
5.6 Weimarer Land II
5.4 Saale-Holzland I
5.2 Sömmerda I - Gotha III
5.1 Wartburg III
5.0 Gera II
5.0 Gotha I

Exactly half the constituencies. The urban base is apparent here, too (well duh, the Greens are an urban based party) but the vote's much more spread out - there aren't any Leipzig/Dresden sized cities in the state after all. The spread here is broadly comparable to what you'd see in Lower Saxony. Saxony OTOH is really quite extreme.