Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Brittain33]

Cool it. I’m not spending my Friday night cleaning up any more personal attacks on this thread.

[Brittain33]

Mods please lock

Knowing this will all be over in a few days makes it bearable

[Brittain33]

It's remarkable how much easier it is to go through this cycle the third time around (after 1994 and 2010).

[Brittain33]

It's remarkable how much easier it is to go through this cycle the third time around (after 1994 and 2010).

This is my first, any advice on how to handle the incoming bloodbath?

Accept that there's nothing you as an individual can shape the outcome, you are not responsible for it, it does no good to feel guilty. This cycle is driven by human nature. I find that reciting the Serenity Prayer helps.

Consider that after each midterm bloodbath, the incumbent defined a new identity as the underdog and rode it to victory in reelection.

Also consider that redistricting will have already happened so Dems will lock in some favorable maps for a later comeback this decade unlike 2010.

Take comfort from the fact that Republicans are still in relative decline to Democrats (the opposite of 1994, and unclear in 2010) and if Youngkin wins it's because he's running as a moderate to win over moderates. The big picture hasn't changed.

Look at margins in past Virginia governors' races. This is a state Democrats should never take for granted. It does not have a high floor of Democrats who are always Democrats. In any past election, taking this as a gimme for Dems would have been inconceivable. We've gotten complacent.

And maybe I'll be surprised and TMac wins, but he's not behaving like someone who expects to win.

[Brittain33]

If McAuliffe loses it will hopefully signal to Dems that they have to move left on bread and butter issues and dump the Bush lovers before they take over and finish the NOVAfication of the party. McAuliffe is an awful, elitist candidate running a terrible campaign on yesterday's issues. It is time to excise the Clinton holdouts and neocons from power before it's too late.

If McAuliffe loses, I feel it means that Democrats get a majority in states like Va by winning over some affluent suburbanites who will dump them at the first opportunity, and there's nothing to be done but maximize returns knowing that happens.

[Brittain33]

McAuliffe will go down as a perfect example of how to run a really terrible campaign.

Maybe? But it sure seems like "running a terrible campaign" coincides often with "running in an environment unfavorable to your party." Mainly because it looks like nothing you are doing is sticking or making a difference, but perhaps that's because it's beyond your control and you have to keep trying different things.

This isn't something I'm deciding new in 2021 - I first felt this way in 2014.

[Brittain33]

I can believe Youngkin is doing well, but... that's not a big crowd.

[Brittain33]

What was Falls Church turnout in 2017 and 2020?

Ridiculously high in 2020 starting with EV. It’s like if Leslie Knope were a city.

[Brittain33]

why the hell was my Election Day turnout report thread deleted? 

It wasn’t deleted. It was merged into this thread, all posts were saved. It’s best to have one megathread rather than multiple parallel discussions.

[Brittain33]

It feels like there's a bandwagon effect on saying Youngkin is favored.

Republican-leaning pollsters release a disproportionate of the polls in the final two weeks, average starts to favor Youngkin, Crystal Ball moves to Lean R because they didn't want to do a tossup, other prediction groups follow suit. Beltway types wet themselves at the prospect of a truly competitive race in their backyard and entertain every inkling of Dems being in disarray in a Biden +10 state.
Youngkin would need to overperform with usually straight ticket Democrats even with poor minority turnout and good R-leaning election day turnout. I just don't see it in the numbers or feel it in my gut. It'll be closer then 2017 but not under <2%.

Well one thing is clear to me so far

That fox news poll showing a 8 point win for Glenn Youngkin probably isn't happening and if anything, I'm kind of surprised that the Republican turnout so far has not been as high as I was expecting it to be.

It’s a possible result if a number of Biden voters switched/reverted to R. I’m not saying I believe it will happen, but it’s what I’m steeling myself for.

[Brittain33]

I can’t believe people are taking a victory lap now. Just wait for real results.

[Brittain33]

I can’t believe people are taking a victory lap now. Just wait for real results.

Noting the idea that turnout being low among Ds is not happening=/=taking a victory lap.
Noting that people who first voted for Obama in 2008 are now reliable D voters=/=taking a victory lap
The vast majority of people who have posted in this thread do not think this race is safe T-Mac.

I stand by my belief that trying to draw any inference, positive or negative, from turnout outside of Nevada EVs is a fool’s errand. People are definitely celebrating an uptick in McAuliffe’s outlook and I have seen this so many times before.

[Brittain33]

That's pretty bad news for McAuliffe.

High R turnout + High D turnout in Virginia in 2021 = Youngkin needing suburban swing or reversion OR minority swing to win.

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1455601326142930948?s=20

That's pretty bad news for McAuliffe.

Very rich and moderately educated so don't worry too much.

Trump won this town by 45 points.

[Brittain33]

One thing that is becoming clear at this point is that Youngkin is not getting the precipitous Democratic turnout collapse that he likely needs.

My doomer premonition is Youngkin doing unexpectedly well in NoVa like Miami-Dade.

[Brittain33]

Rain clearing out of NoVA just in time for the afternoon rush of TMac soccer moms.

One of the pleasures of Atlas is seeing memes connect across spans of 4 years or more.

[Brittain33]

I simply cannot see a scenario where the GOP wins this race unless turnout in northern VA is extremely low. Republicans have done nothing over the last year to show us they want to let go of Trump era politics.

Youngkin looks like such a smug rich white d-bag I associate with suburban Republicans so I fear he may connect with people like Trump didn't.

[Brittain33]

Future Jeb! jokes will be moderated.

[Brittain33]

No difference among all 3 D candidates in the Chesterfield early results on DDHQ.

[Brittain33]

Guys, I think that one-year period away from the forum is over.

[Brittain33]

I've been following elections for almost 30 years now and one thing I can say is people are vastly exaggerating the role of campaigns or politicians in losing or winning.

* Democrats have governed Virginia and New Jersey for the last term and enacted a lot of policy
* President is unpopular and general situation is unhappy for most
* A big chunk of voters Dems rely on for their majorities will vote for change easily and flip their votes

TMac's campaign looks inept because it threw a lot of things at the wall to see what would stick. It was beyond their control that nothing could stick in the face of people wanting to try something different and having a Republican who wasn't Trump or a nutcase on the ballot.

Dems are heading into the wilderness below the Presidential level, and it likely leads to major constitutional crises later this decade at the federal level, but it's beyond our control. Let NJ and VA have a different party in charge, that's democracy.

[Brittain33]

Explain

Two major concerns:
* Republican House acting undemocratically in certifying a winner in a Presidential race as Trump tried to do this year.
* Republican Senate refusing to confirm Dem President appointees and the geography of current coalitions making it virtually impossible for Dems to win the Senate.

In both cases, our democracy will no longer be working as a democracy. It already isn't - we see that in states like Wisconsin where voters have no effective way to turnover government from Republican leadership.

[Brittain33]

Basically Donald Trump attempting to run for a third term in 2028 after his inevitable win in 2024.

Not what I had in mind, FWIW. I think Republicans got a good view of how good things can be if they don't have this albatross around their neck in the future and can just run against Biden.

[Brittain33]

* Republican Senate refusing to confirm Dem President appointees and the geography of current coalitions making it virtually impossible for Dems to win the Senate.

In both cases, our democracy will no longer be working as a democracy.

I always love the blissful ignorance of people not recognizing for almost the entirety of the second half of the 20th century Congress was one-party government. Or how Democrats ran most southern states for a century straight unchallenged. They only started to have a problem with it when their side was on the losing end.

I love people who jump to conclusions and spout off about people's ignorance because they didn't discuss the subject they had in mind when talking about something completely different, or who like to make sick burns about events 40+ years ago that had nothing to do with them, or who themselves are completely oblivious to how different the party system was before the realignment of the 1980s.

While I'm old for Atlas, I wasn't in fact a Democratic Senator from Mississippi in the 1970s, so you should maybe reconsider what you think I know or don't know or how I feel about historical patterns in the U.S.

[Brittain33]

TMac's campaign looks inept because it threw a lot of things at the wall to see what would stick. It was beyond their control that nothing could stick in the face of people wanting to try something different and having a Republican who wasn't Trump or a nutcase on the ballot.

A political strategist would tell you that's bad campaigning because you're supposed to have a focused message instead of being all over the map.

Forgive me, which campaigns were you chief strategist for, again?