Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Calthrina950]

McAuliffle posts a leaked tape of Youngkin asking students not to get the vaccine.
I’m sure this is lacking some context, but it sounds pretty freaking bad.

https://mobile.twitter.com/TerryMcAuliffe/status/1438641459796877317

Especially ironic following his comments asking for a pro-vaccine PSA with McAuliffe.

Yikes. Yeah, that's an absolutely terrible look.

Youngkin is probably headed to a high single-digit loss, comparable to that Gillespie suffered against Northam in 2017. He certainly has run a poor campaign. I've said before that McAuliffe's strength in Northern Virginia alone will be Youngkin's undoing.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/databyler/status/1450104657167011844

Byler is notoriously always looking for a bright spot for the GOP, so not surprised he's trying to pull for McAuliffe to only do +4.

What margin do you think McAuliffe will win by? 8 points? 10 points?

[Calthrina950]

mcauliffe, imo, is doing a disservice to a gubernatorial campaign. I have never in my life seen a candidate make the entire campaign about a former president. ever.

Corzine didn't do it in NJ, the dems didn't do it in va in 2009, etc

Newsom quite successfully used Trump and Covid to his advantage why shouldn’t TMAC do the same.

I am fine with mcauliffe using covid policy in the campaign.

What I am NOT ok with is a person running for governor avoiding talking about any issue specific to his state: education, job policy, spending, taxes, etc, instead opting for vague references to a former president who has absolutely zero bearing on state level policymaking.

It just rubs me the wrong way, that's all. I don't think it is intellectual or interesting.

Youngkin seems to be running a more issues-based campaign.

I do understand why mcaualiffe is doing what he is doing, though: democrats are stalled in DC, and biden's ratings in va are mediocre at  best.

It's going to be insufferable and, frankly, lazy, to see a party go around the country next year screaming "TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP, WHATBOUT TRUMP, NO NO DON'T ASK THAT, ASK ABOUT DRUMPF".

reminds me of GOP and "socialism".

Like I agree with you that it is lazy and unhealthy for all campaigns to follow this model. However it’s honestly like Republicans didn’t just do this under Obama by going Obama bad vote for us. Even under Trump it was all about Pelosi and the radical left.

So I don’t really blame democrats for using this strategy as it’s proven to be effective in states that lean in your parties direction.

I get it, but considering the polling in va suggests a tighter race than the state has been in recent years, maybe mcauliffe needs to start talking about the issues more.

trump is yesterday's news to many voters.

A) this is literally the same exact polling average as 2017. Northam had a final polling average of +3. T-Mac is at +3. So, no, it's not any tighter than it's been in years
B) T-Mac HAS been talking about the issues. Both have. Both are also going after other elements (T-Mac after Trumpkin, Youngkin after stupid issues like CRT), but both HAVE ALSO talked about main issues. Not sure where you're getting that T-Mac is exclusively talking about Trump and nothing else.

Not really sure how you get T-Mac running the most embarrasing gov campaign in recent memory in response to a tweet of... Youngkin's campaign rally and a few Dem *activists* with a Trump balloon outside.

I don't think you saw my earlier question to you, so I'll repeat it again. What margin do you believe McAuliffe will win by?

[Calthrina950]

I hope there's one thing we can collectively agree on.

This has been a very weird race. Everything about it from the candidates to the things going on on the ground right now have been a weird experience and a weird election to follow. That said, I think the general bizarreness of the election has made it more fun to follow at the same time.

I'd agree, although when you think about it, this is basically a race between two generic white men who are both businessmen and who aren't the most controversial, in terms of their personality at least. I still believe McAuliffe is going to win, but this race is going to be closer than I initially expected for it to be.

[Calthrina950]

This thread, it seems, has become an absolute disaster. But the election is near, and we will soon be past this.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/kcjohnson9/status/1454982202329030660

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/31/us/politics/virginia-governors-race-youngkin-mcauliffe.html
In the Final Days Before Virginia Votes, Both Sides Claim Momentum
Glenn Youngkin and Terry McAuliffe crisscrossed Virginia on the last weekend of what has become an increasingly close race for governor.

It was clear in interviews with voters over the weekend that many Virginians view this election as something symbolically greater than a face-off between two candidates for governor. The contest has exposed the country’s persistent divisions over questions of race, class, privilege and the appropriate role of government, and become an outlet for Virginians to register their dissatisfaction with the political culture.

“I’m a Hillary-Biden voter,” said Glenn Miller, a lawyer from McLean, as he walked into a Youngkin rally in southern Fairfax County on Saturday night that drew more than 1,000 people. He explained his tipping point: Working from home and hearing his teenage daughter’s teacher make a comment during a virtual lesson about white men as modern-day slaveholders.

“There are a lot of people like me who are annoyed,” he said, adding that he was able to vote for Mr. Youngkin because he did not associate him as a Trump Republican. “My problem with Trump was I thought he was embarrassing. I just don’t think Youngkin is going to embarrass me or the state.”

CRT doesn't exist? Cool.

It doesn't. And until anyone can provide proof that these random anecdotes of "my kids teacher was telling my child that white people are terrible!" are ever true, I don't believe them. Because even if something was brought up, there's no way that a public school teacher would say something like that.

Even in a world where this did happen, how is this in any way shape or form having to do with McAuliffe? I have no doubt that this person was looking for everyone reason to vote GOP, and I don't buy that he was a "Hilary-Biden" voter.

It's more accurate to say that critical race theory has been misinterpreted, rather than to declare that it doesn't exist. It certainly isn't taught in public schools, as Republicans and the right have been claiming. But it is a legitimate academic theory that has existed for decades and is normally taught in specialized sociology, history, and other such courses in colleges and in law schools.

[Calthrina950]

Worst campaign ever
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1455167994397593604?s=20

Given who McAuliffe has been affiliated with, it doesn't surprise me that he's a dirty campaigner. But after Donald Trump, what can we say?

[Calthrina950]

"The kiss of death"
https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/1455569874961448967?s=20

McAuliffe has been affiliated with the Clintons for decades, so I'm not surprised that she is supporting him.

[Calthrina950]

This result is certainly embarrassing for the Democrats, and particularly for Terry McAuliffe. I personally still believed that McAuliffe would pull it out, but it's clear that Youngkin had momentum. And McAuliffe ran a terrible campaign. If Democrats can't win in Virginia, then how are they going to hold the Upper Midwest next year? Or how will they do in states like Arizona, North Carolina, Texas, and Florida? I'm doubtful.  

[Calthrina950]

You know for all the comparisons Biden gets to Jimmy Carter, at least Jimmy was able to hold the House and Senate in the 1978 midterms. I see little to no chance Biden does the same.

Of course, Democrats still dominated the South at the local, state, and congressional levels in 1978, which was midway through the uninterrupted 40-year period that they controlled the House. They do not have that dominance or leverage now.

[Calthrina950]

You know for all the comparisons Biden gets to Jimmy Carter, at least Jimmy was able to hold the House and Senate in the 1978 midterms. I see little to no chance Biden does the same.

If Biden helps save the planet, that legacy will put whatever Carter's was to shame. Plus, Biden is still most likely to get re-elected, even if 2022 is a wave. The supply crisis and Covid at least should be over by then and the economy booming.

Given the absence of China and Russia from the recent climate change summit, and given the prior track record of world leaders on the issue, I'm not sure if Biden is going to have a dramatic impact of that nature.

[Calthrina950]

Youngkin's map does show what the pathway to a Republican victory in Virginia looks like, with the present coalitions. He won by significantly outperforming Trump in Northern Virginia, flipping back several of the traditionally Republican counties won by Biden last year (i.e., Chesterfield, James City, Stafford, Lynchburg, and Virginia Beach), winning the more marginal counties in the state (i.e., Prince Edward and Montgomery), and crushing McAuliffe in the rural and exurban areas.

[Calthrina950]

Underrated angle here is that the dem big figures might not have the same pull, Obama doesn’t have the Same pull now that’s he’s a jet hopping Martha’s Vineyard elite and Stacey Abrams and Kamala Harris and of course Biden also didn’t come through

Obama has never had a "pull" for downballot candidates, as can be seen by what occurred in 2010 and 2014, and even in 2018, when he campaigned for Abrams, Gillum, and Nelson. He has only been an effective campaigner for himself. And yes, many in the Democratic base, particularly young progressives, are no longer as enthused or moved by Obama as they were when he was first running for office.

[Calthrina950]

Should the gop be concerned that Buchanan county actually trended blue compared to 2020 election?

Yes, in 50 years Buchanan county will have the population the size of Maryland and vote 90-10 democratic. Republicans in Virginia are ignoring Buchanan county at their own peril.

I've noticed that random rural counties will sometimes display a trend or swing towards Democrats although it ultimately means little and that county remains powerfully Republican.

[Calthrina950]

Question:  Has Non-Swing Voter apologized?  They really do owe a lot of posters an apology.  I don't mean that they should apologize for thinking McAuliffe would win, but they should definitely apologize for mocking other posters who suggested McAuliffe might not win, or that it might even be competitive.

He hasn't even been on for a few days now.

Non Swing Voter doesn't strike me as the kind of person who would apologize.

[Calthrina950]

When will Youngkin, Miyares, and Sears be sworn in?

[Calthrina950]

Blue state red governors are almost always either enormously popular or enormously unpopular. I have a feeling Youngkin is going to be the latter of the two by the end of his term.

Why do you say so? It's certainly clear that Youngkin is governing, or will be governing, to the right of Baker, Hogan, and Scott.

[Calthrina950]

Blue state red governors are almost always either enormously popular or enormously unpopular. I have a feeling Youngkin is going to be the latter of the two by the end of his term.

Why do you say so? It's certainly clear that Youngkin is governing, or will be governing, to the right of Baker, Hogan, and Scott.

Yes, and Youngkin never ran as a "Baker" or "Scott," nor is VA as Democratic as MA or VT, nor is the R base in VA (which turned out in unprecedented numbers/margins for him) as liberal as in those New England states, nor did Youngkin receive significant crossover support from Democrats in the GE the way those aforementioned Republicans did. Youngkin also promised to reverse some of the radical D policies of the last eight years, so I don’t see what the big deal here is.

All of this is true, but Democrats (at least on this forum) see Youngkin as an "extremist" and as no different than more ardently conservative Republicans. They take particular issue with his measures regarding CRT and school mask mandates.

[Calthrina950]

All of this is true, but Democrats (at least on this forum) see Youngkin as an "extremist" and as no different than more ardently conservative Republicans. They take particular issue with his measures regarding CRT and school mask mandates.

The Democrats you are talking about paint virtually any Republican as "extremist", "irrational", a "Trumpist", a member of a "cult", someone only interested in "triggering the other side" and "preventing Americans from voting" but devoid of any coherent ideology otherwise, etc., so yeah... not sure what reactions you were expecting from an ardently Democratic/liberal forum that was rooting for McAuliffe in overwhelming numbers and never seemed to care much about (in fact, rather welcomed) Northam's "extremism" as governor after labeling Northam himself a "moderate."

I really don’t think there’s any point in arguing these things with well-known and unyielding partisans — not only are you entertaining their silly caricatures/tabloid talking points (which they use to frame the premise of the argument) but, more importantly, wasting precious time because you will never persuade any of these people. Better to just state your point in a separate post without (as you tend to do) always replying to other users who will never change their mind, which then also leads to endless and pointless quote chains — that way, you can still offer your point of view/criticism without addressing specific users. It’s nice that you’re interested in discourse, but often it’s better not to go down that road. You can usually tell how likely it is that a particular user can even be "reached" before you think about replying to them, and I suggest keeping that in mind. It’s rare enough to get a person to reconsider their views or habits in daily life (outside of this forum), it’s even rarer on a forum like this.

Believe me, I've long come to understand that there are some people who you will never be able to win over, or who you will rarely have any consensus with. There are several posters who fall into this category, and who are people who I disagree with on just about everything. Moreover, it's true that many people aren't able to separate the personal from the political, and evaluate whether or not someone is a good person based upon the political viewpoints that they hold.

[Calthrina950]

So it looks like we've got our own Kyrsten Sinema in the Virginia state Senate in the person of Joseph Morrissey of Richmond:

Virginia governor’s embattled nominee appears to get a second chance

Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s embattled nominee for natural resources secretary emerged from an hour-long grilling by a state Senate committee Tuesday with at least one Democrat open to bucking his party to rescue the seemingly doomed Cabinet pick.

“I am very much open to approving his nomination,” Sen. Joseph D. Morrissey (D-Richmond) said of Andrew Wheeler, who served as Environmental Protection Agency chief under President Donald Trump. “Let’s just say that he’s got a fighting chance.”

Wheeler would only need support from one Democrat in the narrowly divided Senate to win confirmation as secretary of natural and historic resources.

Virginia’s General Assembly rarely rejects a governor’s Cabinet nominees, but Democrats and environmentalists expressed outrage this month when Youngkin (R) named Wheeler, a former coal lobbyist who led a rollback of Obama-era environmental regulations under Trump.

Morrissey’s potential support for Wheeler caught some Democrats by surprise, including Senate Majority Leader Richard L. Saslaw (D-Fairfax).

“I haven’t talked with Joe, but when we had polled the whole caucus, all of them said they were opposed,” he said Tuesday evening.

Youngkin certainly does seem to be governing as a generic conservative Republican, almost similar to what you would expect from a state like South Carolina or Alabama or Utah. I've said before that he is to the right of Scott, Hogan, and Baker. What are your perceptions of his governorship thus far?

[Calthrina950]

Blue state red governors are almost always either enormously popular or enormously unpopular. I have a feeling Youngkin is going to be the latter of the two by the end of his term.

Why do you say so? It's certainly clear that Youngkin is governing, or will be governing, to the right of Baker, Hogan, and Scott.

Yes, and Youngkin never ran as a "Baker" or "Scott," nor is VA as Democratic as MA or VT, nor is the R base in VA (which turned out in unprecedented numbers/margins for him) as liberal as in those New England states, nor did Youngkin receive significant crossover support from Democrats in the GE the way those aforementioned Republicans did. Youngkin also promised to reverse some of the radical D policies of the last eight years, so I don’t see what the big deal here is.

All of this is true, but Democrats (at least on this forum) see Youngkin as an "extremist" and as no different than more ardently conservative Republicans. They take particular issue with his measures regarding CRT and school mask mandates.

That's because, despite claims and self-identifying to the contrary, this forum is still deeply in favor of covid restrictions and always has been. Requiring all students to wear masks (which generally don't work, we can admit now, but a few months ago it was "misinformation") for 8 hours a day every day is seen as the "normal" position that shouldn't be challenged. Lifting vaccine mandates? Clearly an extreme position. Banning CRT (which polls about as well as chlamydia)? Catering to the "culture wars" of the far-right. This forum is just deeply partisan Democratic. They believe all the partisan Dem talking points and propaganda. People like me who have been opposed to covid restrictions for 2 years now have been vilified all throughout. But all the sudden some people don't like a mask mandate when they're vaccinated so now they're "anti-restriction". lol no. When Youngkin actually lifts the covid restrictions, and people here freak out, it shows you that they are not at all "anti-restrictions".

It also really displays just how fraudulent their "Trumpism" narrative is. They want "Trumpism" to mean this big scary evil far-right thing that's much worse than generic Republican (this is to appease a certain set of fragile/marginal voters in their coalition), but when it's reduced to pushing for policies that would bring us back to 2019, and they still call you an "extremist/Trumpist", it's telling on where they are, not Youngkin. Youngkin couldn't have gotten elected without Biden voters. A portion of Biden voters approved of his message, and he's simply following through on his campaign promises. Somehow though, they should "regret" their vote because he's much more "far-right" than he posed? No, Democrats are just so used to getting everything they want in a state like Virginia that now when they don't, it's hysterical. They just hate Republicans and always have, Trump just adds a bit more of a bloviating provocative tinge to things that Republicans would otherwise be doing. Trump is actually a bit more ideologically moderate but a bit more divisive in his rhetoric and behavior, that's it.

I'm certainly aware of the ideological bias of this forum, and I've fought against it throughout most of my time here. I've been constantly accused of "both sidesing" everything, of giving Republicans too much credit, and of being overly friendly or accommodating to right-leaning posters. Some have accused me of logical fallacies and of lacking in critical thinking. I've found that some people won't let up on you if you don't express absolute ideological solidarity with them, and some are so obnoxious in their behavior that it makes compromise very difficult to achieve.

As for this forum's views on the pandemic, I'd agree that the majority still favor restrictions, and that the majority strongly approve of how Democratic politicians have handled the situation. Too many on here seem all too willing to embrace permanent changes to their lifestyles because of this virus. However, the number of posters tiring of restrictions, or becoming critical of them, has increased in recent months, and this includes people from both sides of the ideological spectrum.

[Calthrina950]

Youngkin derangement syndrome is so real. It's hard to imagine having a strong opinion about this guy one way or the other, and it's nice that at least 15% of Virginians aren't complete hacks

I've said that Youngkin is governing to the right of Baker, Hogan, and Scott. But that means that he is basically an establishment Generic R. Youngkin reminds me of Mitt Romney. Like Romney, he is a wealthy businessman who then decided to embark on a run for public office, and like Romney did in 2012, he's tried to strike a "moderate" tone while still appeasing the Republican base.

[Calthrina950]

Virginia could ban abortions after 20 weeks with the help of one particular, maverick Democratic Senator (and a Republican Lt. Governor who can then break the tie in the evenly-divided state Senate):

Virginia GOP supports new abortion restrictions. A key Democrat may support it, too

Here is the summary of the bill in question:

Creates the Pain-Capable Unborn Child Protection Act. The Act prohibits an abortion after 20 weeks gestation unless, in reasonable medical judgment, the mother has a condition that so complicates her medical condition as to necessitate the abortion to avert her death or to avert serious risk of substantial and irreversible physical impairment of a major bodily function. When an abortion is not prohibited post-20 weeks' gestation, the physician or authorized nurse practitioner is required to terminate the pregnancy in a manner that would provide the unborn child the best opportunity to survive. The bill punishes performance of an abortion in violation of the Act as a Class 6 felony. The bill also provides for civil remedies against a physician or authorized nurse practitioner who performs an abortion in violation of the Act.

The Democrat in question just so happens to be the pedophile Northam pardoned.

One of the few television shows I watch is Law & Order: Special Victims Unit. Joe Morrissey's story would be a good template for a story on that show. And it's what I'm reminded of. Nevertheless,  he's married and has had children with this woman, and they seem to be in a "happy" marriage.

[Calthrina950]

Youngkin has actually been way worse than I think anyone would've imagined. Total buyers remorse in VA  I think.

Buyer's remorse among independents and swing voters perhaps, but certainly not among the Republican base. And not among the 90% or so of Democrats who still voted for McAuliffe. I'm not sure opinion of Youngkin would be that much better if he governed like Larry Hogan or Charlie Baker.

[Calthrina950]

Yeah, Youngkin having a -2% approval already, and his approval being barely over 40% just a few months into his admin is just terrible. Shows that this is clearly not what Virginia at large really wanted

Who did Virginia want? Terry McAuliffe?