Ohio Megathread

[Badger]

The AFL-CIO endorsed FitzGerald today.

[Badger]

I'm so glad the Libertarian is taking so much of the vote. Of course, one of the main reasons McAuliffe even won was because of anti-Cuccinelli and a lot of the vote going for Sarvis, and it seems history could repeat itself next year. That's with the hope that the Libertarians successfully sue the state for the new law that is attempting to take them and Green's off the ballot if they don't get 28,000 signatures before the May 6th primary and at least 2% of the vote in the general election. The best hope is this backfires against Kasich and Libertarians manage to get on the ballot which would take votes away from him, but the Green's would fail to get on the ballot increasing FitzGerald's chances there.

No, the best hope is that all third parties are treated fairly and not janked by overly restrictive political-gain laws.

I don't hate the Green Party, but they do take votes away from most Democratic voters. It's in the best interest of the state for leftists to rely on the Ohio Democratic Party because Green's won't be able to win any statewide offices. Libertarians can because their party is more developed and the Ohio GOP is much more insane than the Ohio Democrats.

Plus, in a way it would almost be considered payback for Kasich trying to rig the election for himself. If Green's aren't on the ballot and Libertarians are, +FitzGerald, -Kasich. Without Charlie Earl, most of that 6% would go to Kasich which could ultimately decide this close election and you can't get closer than a tied race.

6% my arse. He'll plummet near the end like most third party candidates. He'll be lucky to get 2% and may not hit even 1%.

[Badger]

I'm so glad the Libertarian is taking so much of the vote. Of course, one of the main reasons McAuliffe even won was because of anti-Cuccinelli and a lot of the vote going for Sarvis, and it seems history could repeat itself next year. That's with the hope that the Libertarians successfully sue the state for the new law that is attempting to take them and Green's off the ballot if they don't get 28,000 signatures before the May 6th primary and at least 2% of the vote in the general election. The best hope is this backfires against Kasich and Libertarians manage to get on the ballot which would take votes away from him, but the Green's would fail to get on the ballot increasing FitzGerald's chances there.

No, the best hope is that all third parties are treated fairly and not janked by overly restrictive political-gain laws.

I don't hate the Green Party, but they do take votes away from most Democratic voters. It's in the best interest of the state for leftists to rely on the Ohio Democratic Party because Green's won't be able to win any statewide offices. Libertarians can because their party is more developed and the Ohio GOP is much more insane than the Ohio Democrats.

Plus, in a way it would almost be considered payback for Kasich trying to rig the election for himself. If Green's aren't on the ballot and Libertarians are, +FitzGerald, -Kasich. Without Charlie Earl, most of that 6% would go to Kasich which could ultimately decide this close election and you can't get closer than a tied race.

6% my arse. He'll plummet near the end like most third party candidates. He'll be lucky to get 2% and may not hit even 1%.

Well, he's certainly a much more known and credible Libertarian candidate than 2010's was. Nobody had any idea who Ken Matesz was and the fact that the year favored the GOP didn't help the L's much at all either. Charlie Earl is recognized as a former member of the Ohio House of Reps. and despite the Tea Party support he's getting, is still considered a "2nd option" to a much more socially liberal version of Kasich. Besides, he needs to campaign harder than Kasich or FitzGerald because if he doesn't carry at least 2% of the vote in the general election (assuming he will be able to get on the ballot), then the Libertarian Party is done for.

All true, which is why he may get closer to 2% than 1. Which of course could mean all the difference in a tight race and, accordingly, is why the GOP is trying so hard to keep him off the ballot.

I'm just saying it's unrealistic to expect that come Election Day Earl will get even half the 6% he's currently polling.

[Badger]

^^Awesome news on top of Chuck Todd calling John Kasich today on his show one of the top 5 most vulnerable GOP incumbent Governor's up in 2014.

For those who don't know, Kearny also owns a very minority-friendly firm, is great with financing and fundraising, is a good friend of the Obama Family, and has been known to go across the aisle in the Ohio Senate and work with the Republicans.

Perhaps the most important part of this though is balancing the ticket very well which I definitely have to hand to FitzGerald. With the help of fellow State Sen. Nina Turner, the African Americans will come out big for them especially after Kasich's controversial statement awhile back after instituting an all-white Cabinet that he didn't need "you people." Then of course, there's the local aspect part of it because FitzGerald is not well-known outside of Cuyahoga County and this Lt. Governor pick could help bring out a lot of vote from Cuyahoga & Hamilton which may even result in FitzGerald carrying Hamilton County.

Kasich is also starting to lose the state tons of jobs especially in the southeast down where Strickland won primarily and something widely unpopular arising is whether or not Kasich will sign onto right-to-work laws, a 6 week abortion ban, or several voting restrictions. Pick any one of those three that get signed into law. Just one, and you got a FitzGerald advantage.

Please. close to 90% of voters won't recall what the LG candidate's names are on election day given the utter do-nothing nature of the post. This'll help with his fundraising connections, but in terms of turnout it'll do little outside Keaney's senate district.

[Badger]

^^Awesome news on top of Chuck Todd calling John Kasich today on his show one of the top 5 most vulnerable GOP incumbent Governor's up in 2014.

For those who don't know, Kearny also owns a very minority-friendly firm, is great with financing and fundraising, is a good friend of the Obama Family, and has been known to go across the aisle in the Ohio Senate and work with the Republicans.

Perhaps the most important part of this though is balancing the ticket very well which I definitely have to hand to FitzGerald. With the help of fellow State Sen. Nina Turner, the African Americans will come out big for them especially after Kasich's controversial statement awhile back after instituting an all-white Cabinet that he didn't need "you people." Then of course, there's the local aspect part of it because FitzGerald is not well-known outside of Cuyahoga County and this Lt. Governor pick could help bring out a lot of vote from Cuyahoga & Hamilton which may even result in FitzGerald carrying Hamilton County.

Kasich is also starting to lose the state tons of jobs especially in the southeast down where Strickland won primarily and something widely unpopular arising is whether or not Kasich will sign onto right-to-work laws, a 6 week abortion ban, or several voting restrictions. Pick any one of those three that get signed into law. Just one, and you got a FitzGerald advantage.

Please. close to 90% of voters won't recall what the LG candidate's names are on election day given the utter do-nothing nature of the post. This'll help with his fundraising connections, but in terms of turnout it'll do little outside Keaney's senate district.

Even if Ohio Republicans were to make that case, FitzGerald still has Cincinnati backups. He's got David Pepper, the former 2010 Ohio Auditor nominee and Hamilton County Commissioner running for the Attorney General's seat. You guys could easily back this up as well that little know who Pepper is and DeWine will decimate him, but for one thing, DeWine hasn't even announced if he's running or not plus we have ANOTHER backup to from Cincinnati who's probably the best. Obviously, State Rep. Connie Pillich who's doing the best in the polls now against Republican State Treasurer Josh Mandel 47-43. Then we also have State Rep. John Patrick Carney from Columbus running for State Auditor so that major city is covered and of course, we have FitzGerald and Turner from the Cleveland area.

Another thing to note, FitzGerald did something interesting that may have been hard to do given the quality candidates he's running with. He's of course a white male Roman Catholic, Eric Kearney who's an African American male, Connie Pillich who's' a white female, and Nina Turner who's an African American female. If that doesn't bring out the minority and women vote, I don't know what will.

And while the LG does essentially do nothing, you never know who can get lucky with that position. Just a decade ago, after George Voinovich never finished out his second term as Governor to become Senator, his Lt. Governor, Nancy Hollister, became Governor for about two weeks. Even Mary Taylor, whether Kasich falls or not, she'll probably be considered a top potential candidate for the Republican nomination in 2018. So the position isn't just for paparazzi.

I'm not denying that Pepper, or the other downballot Dem state candidates, don't all have a shot. The races will largely go within a couple either way of the gov results, with the caveat that Yost tentatively appears the most secure of the GOP incumbants, while Mandel appears the weakest. Nor am I saying the Dems didn't do a good job at getting geographic and demographic balance in their statewide ticket.

What I am saying is that the effect of (e.g.) a woman or African-American candidate running for relatively little-followed statewide races (especially LG) won't do much for turnout.

[Badger]

Kearney is stepping down.

I guess its good for Fitz long term, but the PR for now is awful.

yeah this kind of reminds me of the Eagleton Affair, just plain embarrassing.

Rule Number One of picking a running mate: Do No Harm.

Fitz flopped fabulously.

[Badger]

Ted Stevenot of the Ohio Tea Party Files Paperwork to Run Against Kasich in the GOP Primary

This is great news! He stands little chance of beating Kasich, but given that Kasich expanded Medicaid which is very unpopular among conservatives, it will force Kasich to put a lot of money into the primary.

I doubt it, I've never even heard of this guy and he seems like a some dude candidate.  Unfortunately, Kasich can (and probably will) just ignore this. 

X is correct. Kasich will have to spend little more money than the nominal amount set aside for an unopposed primary to avoid even the embarassment of a strong protest vote. He'll sweep all 88 counties with ease.

[Badger]

Cuyahoga County Executive Ed FitzGerald's commission's decision to consolidate Police Dispatcher's in Cuyahoga County has been approved, and thus my father along with many others we know are being laid off.

I hope he loses.

Sorry for your father's lost job, but we have far too many cops and law enforcement workers, especially in Ohio. That money will thankfully be spent on more important matters.

On what planet?

Seriously, wtf?

[Badger]

You folks think Democrats still have a chance of knocking off that pimply faced nerd Josh Mandel?

Thankfully Mandel will almost certainly still be around for another four years. I'm hopeful looking forward to a more successful Senate campaign in 2018.

I'm hopeful he runs again too, considering he's currently underperforming Kasich by at least 22 points.

@ Lief: Either the Big D's poll is correct and Kasich is going to decimate Fitzgerald even worse than expected (read that again to yourself to grasp the full impact); OR it's overstating Kasich's strength and if Fitzgerald breaks 40% Mandel could be in trouble.

@ Vosem: See Icespear's comment. At best Mandel will win a close race in a really strong GOP year. The Ohio Republican bench is uber-deep. We don't need damaged goods like Mandel to screw up another race.

[Badger]

You folks think Democrats still have a chance of knocking off that pimply faced nerd Josh Mandel?

Thankfully Mandel will almost certainly still be around for another four years. I'm hopeful looking forward to a more successful Senate campaign in 2018.

I'm hopeful he runs again too, considering he's currently underperforming Kasich by at least 22 points.

@ Lief: Either the Big D's poll is correct and Kasich is going to decimate Fitzgerald even worse than expected (read that again to yourself to grasp the full impact); OR it's overstating Kasich's strength and if Fitzgerald breaks 40% Mandel could be in trouble.

@ Vosem: See Icespear's comment. At best Mandel will win a close race in a really strong GOP year. The Ohio Republican bench is uber-deep. We don't need damaged goods like Mandel to screw up another race.

What are your thoughts Badger on Kasich's margin? Does he break 60%? Predicting minds want to know...

As I answered you in another thread...

Coin flip. I'd say he has a decent chance after Republicans were able to keep the Libertarian candidate off the ballot. I question Fitzgerald hitting 40%, but there might be enough disaffected Democrats and liberals who cast ballots for the Green to keep Kasich under 60.

[Badger]

How bad was it for Fitzgerald Tuesday? He lost his OWN PRECINCT!

http://www.dispatch.com/content/blogs/the-daily-briefing/2014/11/11-5-14-fitz-precinct.html

Apparently his neighbors don't like the idea of a chronically unlicensed driver cruising their streets.

[Badger]

Chris Redfern also lost. I suppose blind partisan hackishness eventually catches up to a man.

The person who beat him is under investigation for burglary, if I'm not mistaken.

Correct.

http://www.portclintonnewsherald.com/story/news/local/2014/10/07/new-special-prosecutor-named-lightner-road-burglary/16845245/

[Badger]

Only Adam could post about Kasich doing something he liked and still spend 85% of the post bashing him.

You know me to well.

Kudos to Kasich on this move.