FL-SEN: Is Rubio about to bungle it?

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Sabato moves Murphy's house seat to a Toss-Up:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/maneuvers-in-2016-senate-races-necessitate-one-ratings-changein-the-house/

This is basically the only bad thing about running Murphy - We might just get another Allen West in the house.

The most likely candidates on both sides are fairly bland. No one as insane as West or as interesting as Murphy.

Personally I expect Republicans to take FL-18. I'll be less pessimistic if the Democrats get the candidate they want, or even their 3rd choice.

Fortunately, FL-18 includes parts of Palm Beach, which is one of the few places where FL Democrats actually have some semblance of a bench, but unfortunately, 60% of the district lives outside the district's slice of Palm Beach. RRH has cited (Republican) Sheriff Bob Crowder, who challenged West from the left in the 2012 primaries - my preferred candidate would be Adam Fetterman, but that's unlikely.

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Probably an easier win than trying to unseat IRL.

[Donerail]

Sabato moves Murphy's house seat to a Toss-Up:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/maneuvers-in-2016-senate-races-necessitate-one-ratings-changein-the-house/

This is basically the only bad thing about running Murphy - We might just get another Allen West in the house.

The most likely candidates on both sides are fairly bland. No one as insane as West or as interesting as Murphy.

Personally I expect Republicans to take FL-18. I'll be less pessimistic if the Democrats get the candidate they want, or even their 3rd choice.

Fortunately, FL-18 includes parts of Palm Beach, which is one of the few places where FL Democrats actually have some semblance of a bench, but unfortunately, 60% of the district lives outside the district's slice of Palm Beach. RRH has cited (Republican) Sheriff Bob Crowder, who challenged West from the left in the 2012 primaries - my preferred candidate would be Adam Fetterman, but that's unlikely.

I have my obvious choice, but I suspect he is done with politics. Carl Domino has been talking about running, but all the people I have talked too in the PBC GOP have pretty much given up on him. Joe Negron's wife is considering a run, for some reason. I also heard businessman Gary Uber, former 2014 candidate Calvin Turnquest, and a few other names mentioned.

On the Democratic side, all of the candidates come from Palm Beach County, which is a small corner in the district. I don't see any of them, besides maybe Dave Aronberg (who is not running) as a strong candidate.

Is it just me, or does Murphy's district have a poor bench for Republicans?

The bench is bad, but not necessarily weak. Joe Negron, who is more interested in being the Senate President, would make a strong candidate. Another unlikely but strong candidate would be Adam Hasner, who I campaigned for in 2012 and who flirted with a bid in 2014. Pat Rooney might be another strong candidate. Hell, maybe even Dave Weldon might attempt (another) comeback!

As long as Carl Domino doesn't give it another go, the seat is likely a Republican hold.

It'd be a gain, Sanchez. Don't go grabbing it before you've got it

The Republican bench in FL-18 is weak relative to the Republican bench in most of the rest of Florida, but that's just because the RPOF's bench is strong pretty much everywhere - it's still better than what the Dems have.

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We've got another Democratic candidate -- Pam Keith

She's been in for quite a while, if I'm not mistaken.

And I still have no idea who she is. She has an attractive bio (the kind of candidate the FDP should be seeking to recruit), but she should probably seek some sort of other office first.

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We've got another Democratic candidate -- Pam Keith

She's been in for quite a while, if I'm not mistaken.

And I still have no idea who she is. She has an attractive bio (the kind of candidate the FDP should be seeking to recruit), but she should probably seek some sort of other office first.

Yes, state house or state senate. Not directly jumping to a federal race.

Depending on where she is from, I might suspect she could even be a potential congressional candidate. Only if the district is right for her, of course.

Northern Palm Beach. Seems like a great (by FDP standards) candidate for FL-18.

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If I'm not mistaken, didn't Patrick Murphy change districts after ousting Allen West?

No, Allen West changed districts after beating Ron Klein in 2010 - West won in the 22nd but ran for re-election in the 18th after his district became somewhat more Democrat in redistricting.

[Donerail]

With all three cabinet members out, this is shaping up as a best-case scenario for Dems - CLC doesn't strike me as a particularly strong candidate, and he'll be going up against the best the Dems could put up for this seat.

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Wait wait wait, why did all the Republican top tier candidates decide to not run? Is the Senate really not that alluring anymore?

There will be an open-seat gubernatorial election in 2018 - it's either gamble on a win now, against a top Dem recruit in a presidential year with Hillary on the ticket, or try for one two years later against an unknown-but-unless-it's-Gwen-Graham-probably-not-as-good Dem candidate in an off-year.

[Donerail]

With all three cabinet members out, this is shaping up as a best-case scenario for Dems - CLC doesn't strike me as a particularly strong candidate, and he'll be going up against the best the Dems could put up for this seat.

Who was the third one that elected not to run? Adam Putnam hasn't announced one way or the other just yet, so that makes only two cabinet members declining so far (Bondi and Atwater).

I haven't heard anyone mention Putnam as a serious candidate for Senate. He's made it clear that he wants to run for governor.

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I actually agree with indy rep, there must be a reason why the republican field is clearing for him

The top-name Republicans want to be Governor in 2018. Already looking forward to the massive fireworks an Atwater vs. Putnam primary will create.

and that he was picked by Scott to by his Lt. Gov.

Scott was worried about Crist overperforming in South Florida and wanted to pick a Hispanic to add diversity to his ticket and hopefully counteract that.

His holding a swing state house district

I can't recall Democrats ever seriously challenging him for his house seat.

and winning county elections in Miami-Dade probably also count for something

It's a downballot and fairly nonpartisan position (property appraiser).

In some interesting news, though, the whispers of David Jolly running for the seat seem to have intensified following Atwater's withdrawal.

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Wait wait wait, why did all the Republican top tier candidates decide to not run? Is the Senate really not that alluring anymore?

Because Murphy is a juggernaut and is able to frighten away the competition.

Now if this were Debbie Wasserman Schultz, (who is vile and a loser), EVERYONE would be running. In fact, thousands of people from OUTSIDE of Florida would be carpetbagging just to run against her because she is so awful.

LOL!

It's true - run now for the less important position when you're more likely to lose, or run later for the more powerful position when you're much more likely to win?

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DeSantis set to announce in the next day or two.

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DeSantis set to announce in the next day or two.

Not that I don't believe you, but what is your source?

Emily Cahn on Twitter.

With Schorsch saying that he'd heard the same from his sources after Atwater dropped out; he also noted the announcement was supposed to be today, but DeSantis didn't want to step on Rubio's toes.

[Donerail]

This race still Leans GOP, neither Larry Sabato or Stuart Rothenberg has taken out of that category. Pa is the tipping pt state.

If OC says this is Lean R, then this race must be Safe R.

In all seriousness, this is a Tossup, and the GOP primary could get nasty.

Is Atwater this cycle's Brian Schweitzer? Looked like he was going to run and suddenly backed out. Regardless, with him out, the GOP primary could get messy.

Nah, the RPOF's bench is much better and deeper than MT Dems - but yeah, this could be a very messy primary. Hadn't heard about Gaetz wanting to take a shot at it; he could probably get the 'Tally insider' crowd, but he's not that well-known in the rest of the state.

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At this point (disregarding CLC, whose backing seems thin), it looks like it'll be a battle between Jolly and DeSantis for the soul of the RPOF.

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If Grayson believes a website poll on The Florida Squeeze is good evidence of primary support, Murphy may have an easier primary than I thought.

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If FL Dems nominate Grayson, the party should probably just disband. Nothing of value would be lost. Nelson can run as an independent.

You'd be permanently conceding 10 house seats...

Even in the absence of a Democrat, FL-05 is not going to send a Republican to Congress.

[Donerail]

Guys, please don't act as if Murphy would beat CLC by 20 points and Grayson would lose by the same margin. CLC and Grayson are not to be underestimated and Murphy is not inevitable.

Obviously, we're still a purple state! It's just some of those out of staters that think that.

I will never underestimate either the tactical ability of the RPOF or the potential incompetence of the FDP.

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Patrick Murphy is possibly the luckiest man of the cycle.

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what about Ileana Ros-Lehtinen or one of the Diaz-Balarts? are they just house lifers? or would any of them ever seek higher office?

They are lifers and wouldn't make it out of the primary.

Maxwell's probably right - IRL, at least, is definitely a House lifer. Lincoln Diaz-Balert, I believe, was among those considered for the Senate seat when Mel Martinez resigned, and the Diaz-Balerts yanked their endorsements from Charlie Crist when he appointed George LeMieux instead, but neither has shown an interest in higher office apart from that.

[Donerail]

I don't think this has been posted yet, but the Lieutenant Governor Carlos Santos-Cantera is set to enter.

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/elections-2016/article20369073.html

*Lopez-Cantera.

Excellent news! The Florida GOP ripping itself into pieces and blowing all its money on a Tea Party vs. establishment fight is just what we need to have a weak nominee to face Murphy.

[Donerail]

I don't think this has been posted yet, but the Lieutenant Governor Carlos Santos-Cantera is set to enter.

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/elections-2016/article20369073.html

*Lopez-Cantera.

Excellent news! The Florida GOP ripping itself into pieces and blowing all its money on a Tea Party vs. establishment fight is just what we need to have a weak nominee to face Murphy.

Do you really see that happening? Lopez-Cantera is so new to the statewide scene and is such an unknown quantity he's not going to have much, if any, strong support at the start; I see him as being like LeMieux. Either he'll prove himself to be a fantastic campaigner and win by being a legitimately strong candidate or he'll be immediately eclipsed by the first real candidate to join and soon after drop out in disgrace. Nothing I can see leads me to believe he'd have any devoted partisans willing to fight on to the end.

Yeah, I'd tend to agree with that, but if it's just CLC vs. DeSantis... You can sub in Jolly or whoever for CLC and get a pretty similar result. CLC largely fades into irrelevance, but there's still that big matchup. I wasn't terribly impressed by CLC in 2014, but fighting DeSantis he should be relatively evenly matched. I don't see the party establishment as having signaled any willingness to consolidate around DeSantis, and national tea party groups certainly don't seem to want to embrace CLC so long as DeSantis is a viable option.

I don't think this has been posted yet, but the Lieutenant Governor Carlos Santos-Cantera is set to enter.

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/elections-2016/article20369073.html

*Lopez-Cantera.

Excellent news! The Florida GOP ripping itself into pieces and blowing all its money on a Tea Party vs. establishment fight is just what we need to have a weak nominee to face Murphy.

Are you just trying to suppress Alan Grayson like a bad memory?

Hoping he's just posturing for Congressional influence at this point.

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Because the FDP totally hasn't screwed up before. But I assume Carlos is Rubio's preferred successor, no? Here's the deal. Rubio or Bush is the nominee, they will win Florida and bring the GOP nominee over the finish line with them. They aren't the nominee, this will be a toss up, but do NOT think of Murphy as this unbeatable force of nature. Never underestimate how much a Florida Democrat can screw up, so really, I COULD call this a Tilt R just on that merit alone.

Preferred successor, yes. How much weight that has to push CLC over the line past DeSantis, especially if you throw Jolly or somebody into the mix, is dubious. Most of the people who Rubio could convince in the current matchup are voting CLC already.

And Murphy isn't a Florida Democrat. If he's smart - and he's proved that he is - he'll keep most of his operation away from the FDP. Run your own committees, work with the DSCC, and don't let the state party get control.

[Donerail]

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Amen! Amen. The DSCC should learn from the Debbie Wasserman Schultz. We want a primary, not a coronation.

I also assumed that you wanted to win. I guess not.

Nothing wrong with a primary, it's good preparation for the GE. As long as Murphy wins the primary, I don't  really care about Grayson being in the race.

That's the problem though. The FDP (apparently) is backing Grayson which opens the possibility he sinks Murphy in cash (or worse) he pulls an upset on him in the primary. Everything is being setting in place for Murphy to pickup this seat for Democrats next year in Florida. It would be stupid to blow it.

This is not true. Most of the FDP (at least the parts that matter - Crist, Sink, a majority of state legislators) is backing Murphy. Grayson is independently wealthy, but he's unlikely to sink Murphy in cash - Murphy's not a bad fundraiser himself.