FL-SEN: Is Rubio about to bungle it?

[Donerail]

Wait wait wait, why did all the Republican top tier candidates decide to not run? Is the Senate really not that alluring anymore?

There will be an open-seat gubernatorial election in 2018 - it's either gamble on a win now, against a top Dem recruit in a presidential year with Hillary on the ticket, or try for one two years later against an unknown-but-unless-it's-Gwen-Graham-probably-not-as-good Dem candidate in an off-year.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

With all three cabinet members out, this is shaping up as a best-case scenario for Dems - CLC doesn't strike me as a particularly strong candidate, and he'll be going up against the best the Dems could put up for this seat.

Who was the third one that elected not to run? Adam Putnam hasn't announced one way or the other just yet, so that makes only two cabinet members declining so far (Bondi and Atwater).

[Donerail]

With all three cabinet members out, this is shaping up as a best-case scenario for Dems - CLC doesn't strike me as a particularly strong candidate, and he'll be going up against the best the Dems could put up for this seat.

Who was the third one that elected not to run? Adam Putnam hasn't announced one way or the other just yet, so that makes only two cabinet members declining so far (Bondi and Atwater).

I haven't heard anyone mention Putnam as a serious candidate for Senate. He's made it clear that he wants to run for governor.

[publicunofficial]

With all three cabinet members out, this is shaping up as a best-case scenario for Dems - CLC doesn't strike me as a particularly strong candidate, and he'll be going up against the best the Dems could put up for this seat.

Who was the third one that elected not to run? Adam Putnam hasn't announced one way or the other just yet, so that makes only two cabinet members declining so far (Bondi and Atwater).

Putnam has never come up in discussions of possible candidates because he is the one who most clearly wants to run for Governor in 2018.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

With all three cabinet members out, this is shaping up as a best-case scenario for Dems - CLC doesn't strike me as a particularly strong candidate, and he'll be going up against the best the Dems could put up for this seat.

Who was the third one that elected not to run? Adam Putnam hasn't announced one way or the other just yet, so that makes only two cabinet members declining so far (Bondi and Atwater).

I haven't heard anyone mention Putnam as a serious candidate for Senate. He's made it clear that he wants to run for governor.

He's still listed as 'potential' on Wikipedia, for whatever that is worth.

[Brittain33]

Wait wait wait, why did all the Republican top tier candidates decide to not run? Is the Senate really not that alluring anymore?

Based on what's going on here and in other states, private polling indicates 2016 will be another rough presidential year for federal Republicans. They're sitting this one out.

[Maxwell]

I'd say CLC and DeSantis keep this in the toss-up/tilt R range, while Rooney would move it to Lean R.

Is Rooney still interested?

[LeBron]

Wow, Murphy is really lucking out! This would be huge for the FL Dems of all parties if they manage to pull this off.

With Bondi and Atwater out, is it possible Weatherford might jump in? Rubio himself jumped from Speaker to Senator and as far as I know, Weatherford has made a name for himself in the FL GOP.

[publicunofficial]

I'd say CLC and DeSantis keep this in the toss-up/tilt R range, while Rooney would move it to Lean R.

Is Rooney still interested?

DeSantis is a Tea Partier who consistently underperforms in the competitive areas of his district. He's never ran a competitive race. He's probably the worst of the candidates that are still looking at the race.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

The FLDems are coalescing around a strong nominee with wide appeal and a proven track record of victory and the RPOF appears set to descend into a pissing match between a bunch of B-list-at-best candidates?

Is this opposite world?

[Maxwell]

The FLDems are coalescing around a strong nominee with wide appeal and a proven track record of victory and the RPOF appears set to descend into a pissing match between a bunch of B-list-at-best candidates?

Is this opposite world?

Almost like when the Democrats had an A-list candidate with a track record of victory and the GOP had a pissing match between a bunch of C-list candidates.

[Pandaguineapig]

I actually agree with indy rep, there must be a reason why the republican field is clearing for him and that he was picked by Scott to by his Lt. Gov. His holding a swing state house district and winning county elections in Miami-Dade probably also count for something

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

The FLDems are coalescing around a strong nominee with wide appeal and a proven track record of victory and the RPOF appears set to descend into a pissing match between a bunch of B-list-at-best candidates?

Is this opposite world?

Almost like when the Democrats had an A-list candidate with a track record of victory and the GOP had a pissing match between a bunch of C-list candidates.

Well Bailey imploded spectacularly on the campaign trail (using one of your state's main occupations as an insult tends to not win you any favor) and the national tide turned hard against Democrats in general, two circumstances which (hopefully) will not be repeated here...

[Maxwell]

The FLDems are coalescing around a strong nominee with wide appeal and a proven track record of victory and the RPOF appears set to descend into a pissing match between a bunch of B-list-at-best candidates?

Is this opposite world?

Almost like when the Democrats had an A-list candidate with a track record of victory and the GOP had a pissing match between a bunch of C-list candidates.

Well Bailey imploded spectacularly on the campaign trail (using one of your state's main occupations as an insult tends to not win you any favor) and the national tide turned hard against Democrats in general, two circumstances which (hopefully) will not be repeated here...

I'll dispute that it was just that quote that killed Braley's campaign (he came off as petulant and negative at every appearance and Joni Ernst, for all the crazy talk, had a winning personality and was likable). But my main point is that the look on the outset looks good for the Democrats, but things change. Murphy had a drunk driving arrest, and though I don't think that scandal won't matter much, there are probably other things. Don't get too cocky is all.

Also I don't think the Democrats strategy of putting all of their eggs in one basket is a good one, but that's a conversation for another day.

[IceSpear]

How come none of the True Leftists are attacking Murphy for being a right wing Democrat?

[Donerail]

I actually agree with indy rep, there must be a reason why the republican field is clearing for him

The top-name Republicans want to be Governor in 2018. Already looking forward to the massive fireworks an Atwater vs. Putnam primary will create.

and that he was picked by Scott to by his Lt. Gov.

Scott was worried about Crist overperforming in South Florida and wanted to pick a Hispanic to add diversity to his ticket and hopefully counteract that.

His holding a swing state house district

I can't recall Democrats ever seriously challenging him for his house seat.

and winning county elections in Miami-Dade probably also count for something

It's a downballot and fairly nonpartisan position (property appraiser).

In some interesting news, though, the whispers of David Jolly running for the seat seem to have intensified following Atwater's withdrawal.

[Zioneer]

Atwater not running.

Caputo says CLC v. DeSantis for Pubs.

Patrick Murphy is the second-luckiest politician in the modern day when it comes to opponents. The first is Obama.

[Maxwell]

How come none of the True Leftists are attacking Murphy for being a right wing Democrat?

Because True Leftists even realize how unelectable Alan Grayson is, apparently.

[Landslide Lyndon]

The FLDems are coalescing around a strong nominee with wide appeal and a proven track record of victory and the RPOF appears set to descend into a pissing match between a bunch of B-list-at-best candidates?

Is this opposite world?

Almost like when the Democrats had an A-list candidate with a track record of victory and the GOP had a pissing match between a bunch of C-list candidates.

Well Bailey imploded spectacularly on the campaign trail (using one of your state's main occupations as an insult tends to not win you any favor) and the national tide turned hard against Democrats in general, two circumstances which (hopefully) will not be repeated here...

I'll dispute that it was just that quote that killed Braley's campaign (he came off as petulant and negative at every appearance and Joni Ernst, for all the crazy talk, had a winning personality and was likable). But my main point is that the look on the outset looks good for the Democrats, but things change. Murphy had a drunk driving arrest, and though I don't think that scandal won't matter much, there are probably other things. Don't get too cocky is all.

Also I don't think the Democrats strategy of putting all of their eggs in one basket is a good one, but that's a conversation for another day.

Braley's biggest mistake was that he didn't follow Harry Reid's strategy to pounce Ernst mercilessly 24/7 for all the crazy things she said. Instead of that he run a rudderless and vacillating campaign allowing his opponent to define herself.

[Maxwell]

The FLDems are coalescing around a strong nominee with wide appeal and a proven track record of victory and the RPOF appears set to descend into a pissing match between a bunch of B-list-at-best candidates?

Is this opposite world?

Almost like when the Democrats had an A-list candidate with a track record of victory and the GOP had a pissing match between a bunch of C-list candidates.

Well Bailey imploded spectacularly on the campaign trail (using one of your state's main occupations as an insult tends to not win you any favor) and the national tide turned hard against Democrats in general, two circumstances which (hopefully) will not be repeated here...

I'll dispute that it was just that quote that killed Braley's campaign (he came off as petulant and negative at every appearance and Joni Ernst, for all the crazy talk, had a winning personality and was likable). But my main point is that the look on the outset looks good for the Democrats, but things change. Murphy had a drunk driving arrest, and though I don't think that scandal won't matter much, there are probably other things. Don't get too cocky is all.

Also I don't think the Democrats strategy of putting all of their eggs in one basket is a good one, but that's a conversation for another day.

Braley's biggest mistake was that he didn't follow Harry Reid's strategy to pounce Ernst mercilessly 24/7 for all the crazy things she said. Instead of that he run a rudderless and vacillating campaign allowing his opponent to define herself.

Nah he was plenty aggressive toward Ernst. The problem is being aggressive does not work for a guy who comes off as petulant and dickish doing it.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Nah he was plenty aggressive toward Ernst. The problem is being aggressive does not work for a guy who comes off as petulant and dickish doing it.

He became aggressive too late when it seemed like desperation. At the beginning he attacked Ernst as if she was a typical Republican.
I remember the guys as DKE being frustrated with Braley's unwillingness to call her out for the crazy things she said in the past and during the campaign.

[publicunofficial]

I think CLC is underestimated. This guy has the lowest name recognition of all Republicans in FL and still only trails by 2 or so. I think he would do well against Murphy. And yes, the fact that he is Hispanic will also help him.

There's a reason there's only two current Senators whose previous job was Lt. Governor. It's a bad job to launch a campaign from, especially in a state like Florida were the Lt. Gov is elected with the Governor.

The best advantage CLC has is his name.

[publicunofficial]

With Bondi and Atwater out, is it possible Weatherford might jump in? Rubio himself jumped from Speaker to Senator and as far as I know, Weatherford has made a name for himself in the FL GOP.

Tampa Bay Times mentions Weatherford in their post-Atwater write-up.

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Doesn't sound very interested.

[Flake]

Surprise can describe my feelings about this race right now. I never saw Atwater backing out.

[Panda Express]

Wait wait wait, why did all the Republican top tier candidates decide to not run? Is the Senate really not that alluring anymore?

Because Murphy is a juggernaut and is able to frighten away the competition.

Now if this were Debbie Wasserman Schultz, (who is vile and a loser), EVERYONE would be running. In fact, thousands of people from OUTSIDE of Florida would be carpetbagging just to run against her because she is so awful.