FL-SEN: Is Rubio about to bungle it?

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Buchanan not going to be in the race.

I'd be more surprised if he ran.

[RogueBeaver]

DSCC endorses Murphy. Grayson sounds quite interested.

[RogueBeaver]

A Grayson aide and Grayson's girlfriend are both interested in running for Grayson's seat if he runs.

[The Other Castro]

A Grayson aide and Grayson's girlfriend are both interested in running for Grayson's seat if he runs.

Florida Dems gonna florida dem.

[Miles]

DeSantis is running on the Republican side.

[publicunofficial]

Quick re-cap of the potential candidates on both sides:

GOP:
-Rep. Ron DeSantis
-Lt. Gov Carlos Lopez-Cantera ("95% there", won't announce till end of legislative session)
-Rep. David Jolly (Will decide around June or July, after his wedding)
-Rep. Dennis Ross (Reportedly "interested")
-Former Sen. George LeMieux (Interested)
-Rep. Jeff Miller (Mentioned as possible candidate)
-Former Senate President Don Gaetz ("Looking at the race")
-Rep. Ted Yoho (Mentioned frequently, hasn't said anything)
-Rep. Curt Clawson (Won't say he isn't running, interested)
-Fmr. Attorney General Bill McCollum (Interested, leaning towards a run)
-Rep. Vern Buchanan
-Rep. Tom Rooney
-Former House Speaker Will Weatherford


Dems:
-Rep. Patrick Murphy
-Attorney Pam Keith
-Rep. Alan Grayson (Interested)

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

I don't think this has been posted yet, but the Lieutenant Governor Carlos Santos-Cantera is set to enter.

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/elections-2016/article20369073.html

[SATW]

I don't think this has been posted yet, but the Lieutenant Governor Carlos Santos-Cantera is set to enter.

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/elections-2016/article20369073.html

He's got my support. #CSC2016

[Donerail]

I don't think this has been posted yet, but the Lieutenant Governor Carlos Santos-Cantera is set to enter.

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/elections-2016/article20369073.html

*Lopez-Cantera.

Excellent news! The Florida GOP ripping itself into pieces and blowing all its money on a Tea Party vs. establishment fight is just what we need to have a weak nominee to face Murphy.

[Pandaguineapig]

I don't think this has been posted yet, but the Lieutenant Governor Carlos Santos-Cantera is set to enter.

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/elections-2016/article20369073.html

*Lopez-Cantera.

Excellent news! The Florida GOP ripping itself into pieces and blowing all its money on a Tea Party vs. establishment fight is just what we need to have a weak nominee to face Murphy.

Are you just trying to suppress Alan Grayson like a bad memory?

[Dereich]

I don't think this has been posted yet, but the Lieutenant Governor Carlos Santos-Cantera is set to enter.

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/elections-2016/article20369073.html

*Lopez-Cantera.

Excellent news! The Florida GOP ripping itself into pieces and blowing all its money on a Tea Party vs. establishment fight is just what we need to have a weak nominee to face Murphy.

Do you really see that happening? Lopez-Cantera is so new to the statewide scene and is such an unknown quantity he's not going to have much, if any, strong support at the start; I see him as being like LeMieux. Either he'll prove himself to be a fantastic campaigner and win by being a legitimately strong candidate or he'll be immediately eclipsed by the first real candidate to join and soon after drop out in disgrace. Nothing I can see leads me to believe he'd have any devoted partisans willing to fight on to the end.

[Flake]

Alan Grayson is probably going to run

[Donerail]

I don't think this has been posted yet, but the Lieutenant Governor Carlos Santos-Cantera is set to enter.

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/elections-2016/article20369073.html

*Lopez-Cantera.

Excellent news! The Florida GOP ripping itself into pieces and blowing all its money on a Tea Party vs. establishment fight is just what we need to have a weak nominee to face Murphy.

Do you really see that happening? Lopez-Cantera is so new to the statewide scene and is such an unknown quantity he's not going to have much, if any, strong support at the start; I see him as being like LeMieux. Either he'll prove himself to be a fantastic campaigner and win by being a legitimately strong candidate or he'll be immediately eclipsed by the first real candidate to join and soon after drop out in disgrace. Nothing I can see leads me to believe he'd have any devoted partisans willing to fight on to the end.

Yeah, I'd tend to agree with that, but if it's just CLC vs. DeSantis... You can sub in Jolly or whoever for CLC and get a pretty similar result. CLC largely fades into irrelevance, but there's still that big matchup. I wasn't terribly impressed by CLC in 2014, but fighting DeSantis he should be relatively evenly matched. I don't see the party establishment as having signaled any willingness to consolidate around DeSantis, and national tea party groups certainly don't seem to want to embrace CLC so long as DeSantis is a viable option.

I don't think this has been posted yet, but the Lieutenant Governor Carlos Santos-Cantera is set to enter.

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/elections-2016/article20369073.html

*Lopez-Cantera.

Excellent news! The Florida GOP ripping itself into pieces and blowing all its money on a Tea Party vs. establishment fight is just what we need to have a weak nominee to face Murphy.

Are you just trying to suppress Alan Grayson like a bad memory?

Hoping he's just posturing for Congressional influence at this point.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Alan Grayson is probably going to run

Wtf does he want? I feel like his girlfriend just wants his house seat so he's blowing a senate seat for the Dems because he's too whipped.

[Beet]

Alan Grayson is probably going to run

Endorsed!

[Ebowed]

I love Alan Grayson!  Who is this Murphy guy, anyway?

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I love Alan Grayson!  Who is this Murphy guy, anyway?

Rep. Murphy is a conservadem representing a 52% (I think) Romney district (FL-18). He defeated Fmr. Rep. Allen West in a 2012 upset, and won reelection with 60% of the vote in 2014. Florida definitely has an atlas blue tilt at the senate/gubernatorial levels, and more than a generic D is needed to win. Murphy seems like someone who would make the race Toss-Up/Tilt D.

Grayson, on the other hand, is only in the house because his district (FL-9) was drawn specifically for him and his voters in the 2010 redistricting. (Grayson lost reelection in a far more conservative district, the old FL-10, in the 2010 midterms to Rep. Daniel Webster (R). He returned to the house in 2012 via the specifically-drawn-for-him 9th district.) He is a clear liberal stalwart who makes no attempts to appear moderate and has no credible way of convincing enough moderate voters to go for him. Florida is not New Mexico or Nevada no matter how much Grayson may think it is - CLC or any competent nominee would dispatch Grayson comfortably, no questions asked. The democrats' only real chance is with Murphy.

[Panda Express]

Alan Grayson is probably going to run

Endorsed!

Once again Patrick "The Colossus" Murphy will mop the floor with your candidate of choice and there is nothing you can do about it.

[Free Bird]

Because the FDP totally hasn't screwed up before. But I assume Carlos is Rubio's preferred successor, no? Here's the deal. Rubio or Bush is the nominee, they will win Florida and bring the GOP nominee over the finish line with them. They aren't the nominee, this will be a toss up, but do NOT think of Murphy as this unbeatable force of nature. Never underestimate how much a Florida Democrat can screw up, so really, I COULD call this a Tilt R just on that merit alone.

[IceSpear]

Alan Grayson is probably going to run

It's happening...

[Beet]

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Amen! Amen. The DSCC should learn from the Debbie Wasserman Schultz. We want a primary, not a coronation.

[Donerail]

Because the FDP totally hasn't screwed up before. But I assume Carlos is Rubio's preferred successor, no? Here's the deal. Rubio or Bush is the nominee, they will win Florida and bring the GOP nominee over the finish line with them. They aren't the nominee, this will be a toss up, but do NOT think of Murphy as this unbeatable force of nature. Never underestimate how much a Florida Democrat can screw up, so really, I COULD call this a Tilt R just on that merit alone.

Preferred successor, yes. How much weight that has to push CLC over the line past DeSantis, especially if you throw Jolly or somebody into the mix, is dubious. Most of the people who Rubio could convince in the current matchup are voting CLC already.

And Murphy isn't a Florida Democrat. If he's smart - and he's proved that he is - he'll keep most of his operation away from the FDP. Run your own committees, work with the DSCC, and don't let the state party get control.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

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Amen! Amen. The DSCC should learn from the Debbie Wasserman Schultz. We want a primary, not a coronation.

There's a huge difference here. Sanders isn't in any real competition with Hillary. He's gonna run a positive campaign on his merits and ideas. Grayson is gonna run on attack-based messaging and make Murphy spend millions of unnecessary dollars and make it so we end up with a damaged and broke nominee.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Grayson will be a good test of how far the Democrats are ready to go into silly season.

[Flake]

An election with DeSantis and Murphy would be preferred.