It's hard to say. Biden's approval with Hispanics seemingly indicates that they are no longer so loyal with the Democratic party. If Republicans win 45% of the Hispanic vote in 2022 I would not be surprised.
But we have yet to see conclusive evidence of shifting in actual elections. The CA recall showed some gains among rural/non major metro Hispanics for the GOP but also losses among urban Hispanics. The NM special election was also a strong result for Democrats. Results from NJ and VA's heavily Hispanic areas will tell the story further, but it's going to be a question mark until 2022. I don't think either race will say enough where either the 'Hispanics just love incumbents' or 'Hispanics are trending R' arguments can be dismissed.
I just went through the VA poll crosstabs and Hispanics aren't a big enough group to have their own crosstab sadly so it's hard to track.
Urban vs rural Hispanics is one of the most important stories for 2022 and 2024. The Rs really need to make some more gains with the former to win states like NV and AZ as Vegas, Phoenix dominate their respective states. More rural Hispanic gains for the TX GOP can help them a lot short term but if Dallas, Austin, Houston urban Hispanics don't move R, eventually around 2028-32 it will make things difficult.
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