Does 2004 show that Dem panicking over the Rio Grande Valley is overblown?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

After all, no way a Democrat can ever bounce back from that sort of trend we saw last year, right?

Oh wait look at 2004. Kerry actually flat out LOST Cameron County, and underran Biden in both Hidalgo and Webb Counties. And those three make up the majority of the region's population since it's a mostly empty region like most of Texas.

It's almost like the region despite being traditionally strongly Dem might also be quite elastic and very prone to pro-incumbent swings or something.

[NOVA Green]

Much of this might depend upon the cutting back of a whole new "Army" of Border Patrol agents, many of whom are either Latino or Bilingual that now have good paying jobs to "police" the Central Americans from places such as Honduras and Guatemala coming over the border, fleeing a mixture of Climate Crisis induced crop failure in the Native Highlands, as well as a growth of Criminal Gang violence which has exploded in both counties in recent years as the Drug Cartels have shifted their routes.

Regardless, was shocked at the amount of Mexican-American racism and stereotypes of Central-Americans when I was working at the factories in Houston.

Sure as hell wasn't like that in the 1980s and early '90s when Central Americans were relatively warmly welcomed in both Mexico and US fleeing the aftermath of Reagan's Wars and everybody understood that the El Norte was the only ticket out....

[Xing]

Yeah, and it's also not like Kerry only won Miami-Dade by high-single digits, thus losing Florida by much more than expected and leading many to think that it's not going to be a swing state anymore... oh wait. Those expecting a permanent Republican trend among all Latinos are either only predicting what they want to happen, or are being very short-sighted.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Well 2004 was to a great extent a foreign policy/culture war election, and after 2004 there was a historic recession that polarised politics around class issues again. Obama also did much better in the Midwest than Kerry and Gore for this reason - a fatal error many on this site made in 2016 was to imagine that Obama's Midwest overperformance was an unbreachable 'freiwal'.

So I'd say that if the economy is good in 2024 Democrats should do fine in the Rio Grande Valley. But Republicans have clearly learned there is mileage in cultural wedge issues on Hispanic voters and aren't going to abandon the strategy as McCain and Romney did. Those two could conceivably have won, as Trump did in 2016, by ignoring Hispanics and running up the score with WWCs. But that's no longer an option now Republicans are on the defensive in the sunbelt: with the loss of so many suburban whites the GOP coalition has to broaden racially to survive.

If the above doesn't happen then Democrats will keep winning. Which is a plausible outcome. But clearly the path of least resistance for the GOP is rural conservative Hispanics rather than trying to win back college educated whites who are dealigning with the party culturally.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Bush had a big personal vote among Latinos, which were a constituency he cultivated a good relationship with as Governor of Texas. That helped him do better in the RGV.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Cameron, Hidalgo, and Webb are far more urbanized than the rest of the region. Biden doing better there than Kerry while massively underperforming in the more rural counties is typical #trends for the era.

As for Miami-Dade, Trump would've won Florida even if that county had both HRC's margin and Biden's turnout. There's far more to be said about how to stop bleeding and recover in exurbs and small metros than this forum's awful, reductive takes on the predilections of Cuban voters.

[kwabbit]

It's hard to say. Biden's approval with Hispanics seemingly indicates that they are no longer so loyal with the Democratic party. If Republicans win 45% of the Hispanic vote in 2022 I would not be surprised.

But we have yet to see conclusive evidence of shifting in actual elections. The CA recall showed some gains among rural/non major metro Hispanics for the GOP but also losses among urban Hispanics. The NM special election was also a strong result for Democrats. Results from NJ and VA's heavily Hispanic areas will tell the story further, but it's going to be a question mark until 2022. I don't think either race will say enough where either the 'Hispanics just love incumbents' or 'Hispanics are trending R' arguments can be dismissed.

I just went through the VA poll crosstabs and Hispanics aren't a big enough group to have their own crosstab sadly so it's hard to track.

[Woody]

Why this narrative is BS:

1. RGV swung and trended in 2016 despite immigration and border control being an issue.

2. In the 2018 midterms despite the country shifting left and having a reduced statewide winning margin from 2014, Greg Abbott saw monster swings and trends that year to him in RGV, despite winning by 13 points compared to 20 points statewide. Cruz also got swings from rural counties compared to his his last run (Duval, Jim Wells, Starr, etc.) although the more urban counties didn't bulge. In 2002 both statewide races saw the RGV swing to democrats, not showing a correlating trend like 2018-2020.

3. Downballot candidates like Monica De La Cruz underperformed only by a little margin, showing that RGV Tejanos are not only loyal to Trump.

4. Not exactly the same as Tejanos, but GOP has gained with Hispanic voters in Florida in 2021 with it's outreach, and the CA Recall had Newsom winning by only by 18 points in Imperial County, with the county trending once again more right to the state.

5. Polls show Hispanics swinging the hardest against Biden compared to other demographics. Most likely due to the border crisis.

[Devils30]

It's hard to say. Biden's approval with Hispanics seemingly indicates that they are no longer so loyal with the Democratic party. If Republicans win 45% of the Hispanic vote in 2022 I would not be surprised.

But we have yet to see conclusive evidence of shifting in actual elections. The CA recall showed some gains among rural/non major metro Hispanics for the GOP but also losses among urban Hispanics. The NM special election was also a strong result for Democrats. Results from NJ and VA's heavily Hispanic areas will tell the story further, but it's going to be a question mark until 2022. I don't think either race will say enough where either the 'Hispanics just love incumbents' or 'Hispanics are trending R' arguments can be dismissed.

I just went through the VA poll crosstabs and Hispanics aren't a big enough group to have their own crosstab sadly so it's hard to track.

Urban vs rural Hispanics is one of the most important stories for 2022 and 2024. The Rs really need to make some more gains with the former to win states like NV and AZ as Vegas, Phoenix dominate their respective states. More rural Hispanic gains for the TX GOP can help them a lot short term but if Dallas, Austin, Houston urban Hispanics don't move R, eventually around 2028-32 it will make things difficult.

[Schiff for Senate]

I think they should worry at least a little because I fear that in a close race in TX it might be this sort of underperformance in the RGV that costs them.

[GregTheGreat657]

Trump went from the worst performance in the RGV since 1996 to doing better Bush '04 in one election cycle, so take that as you will. Biden's approval is consistently low among Hispanics, also

[Progressive Pessimist]

These days we have every right to panic over everything. The walls are closing in and this country is looking like it's going to be lost for good very soon. We're in the American Weimar Republic.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

It's hard to say. Biden's approval with Hispanics seemingly indicates that they are no longer so loyal with the Democratic party. If Republicans win 45% of the Hispanic vote in 2022 I would not be surprised.

But we have yet to see conclusive evidence of shifting in actual elections. The CA recall showed some gains among rural/non major metro Hispanics for the GOP but also losses among urban Hispanics. The NM special election was also a strong result for Democrats. Results from NJ and VA's heavily Hispanic areas will tell the story further, but it's going to be a question mark until 2022. I don't think either race will say enough where either the 'Hispanics just love incumbents' or 'Hispanics are trending R' arguments can be dismissed.

I just went through the VA poll crosstabs and Hispanics aren't a big enough group to have their own crosstab sadly so it's hard to track.

Urban vs rural Hispanics is one of the most important stories for 2022 and 2024. The Rs really need to make some more gains with the former to win states like NV and AZ as Vegas, Phoenix dominate their respective states. More rural Hispanic gains for the TX GOP can help them a lot short term but if Dallas, Austin, Houston urban Hispanics don't move R, eventually around 2028-32 it will make things difficult.

Dallas, Austin, Houston etc Hispanics did move R though.

https://twitter.com/jmilescoleman/status/1325267759769546753?lang=en

In fact, they swung R pretty significantly. TX-29, for instance, swung from Clinton +47 to Biden +33. And even outside of Texas, Hispanics in other urban cities also swung R -- CA-46, for instance, went from Clinton +38 to Biden +31.

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

After all, no way a Democrat can ever bounce back from that sort of trend we saw last year, right?

Oh wait look at 2004. Kerry actually flat out LOST Cameron County, and underran Biden in both Hidalgo and Webb Counties. And those three make up the majority of the region's population since it's a mostly empty region like most of Texas.

It's almost like the region despite being traditionally strongly Dem might also be quite elastic and very prone to pro-incumbent swings or something.

The party is better off without them anyhow.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

After all, no way a Democrat can ever bounce back from that sort of trend we saw last year, right?

Oh wait look at 2004. Kerry actually flat out LOST Cameron County, and underran Biden in both Hidalgo and Webb Counties. And those three make up the majority of the region's population since it's a mostly empty region like most of Texas.

It's almost like the region despite being traditionally strongly Dem might also be quite elastic and very prone to pro-incumbent swings or something.

The party is better off without them anyhow.

Please, kick hispanics of all stripes out of your party, I beg of you.

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

After all, no way a Democrat can ever bounce back from that sort of trend we saw last year, right?

Oh wait look at 2004. Kerry actually flat out LOST Cameron County, and underran Biden in both Hidalgo and Webb Counties. And those three make up the majority of the region's population since it's a mostly empty region like most of Texas.

It's almost like the region despite being traditionally strongly Dem might also be quite elastic and very prone to pro-incumbent swings or something.

The party is better off without them anyhow.

Please, kick hispanics of all stripes out of your party, I beg of you.

I'm tired of so many Democrats shilling for open borders and importing people to compete with our native poor. Maybe if they didn't vote for us, party leadership would stop hurting their own working-class voters for political power.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Trump went from the worst performance in the RGV since 1996 to doing better Bush '04 in one election cycle, so take that as you will. Biden's approval is consistently low among Hispanics, also

He did not do better than Bush ‘04 in the RGV as a whole, only in the rural areas.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

It's hard to say. Biden's approval with Hispanics seemingly indicates that they are no longer so loyal with the Democratic party. If Republicans win 45% of the Hispanic vote in 2022 I would not be surprised.

But we have yet to see conclusive evidence of shifting in actual elections. The CA recall showed some gains among rural/non major metro Hispanics for the GOP but also losses among urban Hispanics. The NM special election was also a strong result for Democrats. Results from NJ and VA's heavily Hispanic areas will tell the story further, but it's going to be a question mark until 2022. I don't think either race will say enough where either the 'Hispanics just love incumbents' or 'Hispanics are trending R' arguments can be dismissed.

I just went through the VA poll crosstabs and Hispanics aren't a big enough group to have their own crosstab sadly so it's hard to track.

Urban vs rural Hispanics is one of the most important stories for 2022 and 2024. The Rs really need to make some more gains with the former to win states like NV and AZ as Vegas, Phoenix dominate their respective states. More rural Hispanic gains for the TX GOP can help them a lot short term but if Dallas, Austin, Houston urban Hispanics don't move R, eventually around 2028-32 it will make things difficult.

Dallas, Austin, Houston etc Hispanics did move R though.

https://twitter.com/jmilescoleman/status/1325267759769546753?lang=en

In fact, they swung R pretty significantly. TX-29, for instance, swung from Clinton +47 to Biden +33. And even outside of Texas, Hispanics in other urban cities also swung R -- CA-46, for instance, went from Clinton +38 to Biden +31.

FWIW there wasn’t really a Latino R swing in WA or OR, and the R swings in Harris County extended to heavily Black and Asian areas to some extent. Still, the percentage swings were larger in rural areas like with RGV Tejanos than urban Latinos.

Voted no, but tbh massive R gains in places like the RGV were inevitable at some point in the current alignment.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

After all, no way a Democrat can ever bounce back from that sort of trend we saw last year, right?

Oh wait look at 2004. Kerry actually flat out LOST Cameron County, and underran Biden in both Hidalgo and Webb Counties. And those three make up the majority of the region's population since it's a mostly empty region like most of Texas.

It's almost like the region despite being traditionally strongly Dem might also be quite elastic and very prone to pro-incumbent swings or something.

The party is better off without them anyhow.

Please, kick hispanics of all stripes out of your party, I beg of you.

I'm tired of so many Democrats shilling for open borders and importing people to compete with our native poor. Maybe if they didn't vote for us, party leadership would stop hurting their own working-class voters for political power.

.... that's a take from a red Alabama certainly.

[Alcibiades]

After all, no way a Democrat can ever bounce back from that sort of trend we saw last year, right?

Oh wait look at 2004. Kerry actually flat out LOST Cameron County, and underran Biden in both Hidalgo and Webb Counties. And those three make up the majority of the region's population since it's a mostly empty region like most of Texas.

It's almost like the region despite being traditionally strongly Dem might also be quite elastic and very prone to pro-incumbent swings or something.

The party is better off without them anyhow.

Please, kick hispanics of all stripes out of your party, I beg of you.

I'm tired of so many Democrats shilling for open borders and importing people to compete with our native poor. Maybe if they didn't vote for us, party leadership would stop hurting their own working-class voters for political power.

Uh, you do realise that the Rio Grande Valley has been dominated by Hispanics for centuries, right? They are as ‘native’ as any white working class American.

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

After all, no way a Democrat can ever bounce back from that sort of trend we saw last year, right?

Oh wait look at 2004. Kerry actually flat out LOST Cameron County, and underran Biden in both Hidalgo and Webb Counties. And those three make up the majority of the region's population since it's a mostly empty region like most of Texas.

It's almost like the region despite being traditionally strongly Dem might also be quite elastic and very prone to pro-incumbent swings or something.

The party is better off without them anyhow.

Please, kick hispanics of all stripes out of your party, I beg of you.

I'm tired of so many Democrats shilling for open borders and importing people to compete with our native poor. Maybe if they didn't vote for us, party leadership would stop hurting their own working-class voters for political power.

Uh, you do realise that the Rio Grande Valley has been dominated by Hispanics for centuries, right? They are as ‘native’ as any white working class American.

I get it, but that wasn't really the core of my point. My main point was that open borders, as Bernie Sanders said, is a "Koch brothers proposal". I was saying if Hispanics were more likely to vote for Rs, maybe the Dem leadership wouldn't be so willing to sell out working-class Americans in exchange for importing a future new voter base (and cheap labor for the donors). I made that point because the other poster brought up "Hispanics of all stripes".

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Trump went from the worst performance in the RGV since 1996 to doing better Bush '04 in one election cycle, so take that as you will. Biden's approval is consistently low among Hispanics, also

He did not do better than Bush ‘04 in the RGV as a whole, only in the rural areas.

True, but in fairness he did better if you account for nationwide urban leftward swings.

[DPKdebator]

Remember that Trump got the massive swing in the RGV without even campaigning in the area or having any connections to it. While it's true that 2004 ended up being an aberration, Biden's lackluster polling numbers with Hispanics suggest that the GOP could make further inroads in a region where the party never really had much infrastructure (South Texas is the longest-lasting Democratic region in the country alongside the majority-black parts of northeastern North Carolina).

[ElectionsGuy]

The same people who tell others to stop living in 2004 when it comes to predicting any Republican winning in Virginia, Nevada, Colorado, etc. will also bring up 2004 when it comes to Hispanics so they can deflect away losses that are continuing to happen in off-year elections.

Dems just lost a >70% Hispanic, +14 Biden state house seat in Texas last week. I didn't hear a lot of talk about that.

[Alben Barkley]

In theory yes, and I have made that argument myself before, but I can understand the concern anyway. Bush was an especially good fit for Hispanic voters (especially in Texas) while Trump seemed to be a historically bad fit for them, and 2016 seemed to bear that out. Yet he made huge and largely unexpected gains with them anyway.