kwabbit
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,872
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« on: October 23, 2021, 02:01:01 AM » |
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« edited: October 23, 2021, 02:05:17 AM by kwabbit »
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It's hard to say. Biden's approval with Hispanics seemingly indicates that they are no longer so loyal with the Democratic party. If Republicans win 45% of the Hispanic vote in 2022 I would not be surprised.
But we have yet to see conclusive evidence of shifting in actual elections. The CA recall showed some gains among rural/non major metro Hispanics for the GOP but also losses among urban Hispanics. The NM special election was also a strong result for Democrats. Results from NJ and VA's heavily Hispanic areas will tell the story further, but it's going to be a question mark until 2022. I don't think either race will say enough where either the 'Hispanics just love incumbents' or 'Hispanics are trending R' arguments can be dismissed.
I just went through the VA poll crosstabs and Hispanics aren't a big enough group to have their own crosstab sadly so it's hard to track.
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