GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Warnock ahead narrowly in Spalding w/45% in.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Newton reporting now:

50% in, 73-27 Warnock.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Henry reporting:
60% in, 74-26.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Not following this too closely because I’m at a holiday party but based on skimming Twitter it looks like Warnock is massively underperforming??

Aside from a 1% or so underperformance in some tiny rural counties, no.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Walker county is 47% in with 77-23 Walker.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Eyes are on Forsyth.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Eyes are on Forsyth.

Wow my timing is great. Forsyth is in. 55% in, 64-36 for Walker.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Needle is on the edge of Tossup and lean Warnock now.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Needle is on the edge of Tossup and lean Warnock now.

Can someone post the link to "the needle."
thank you.

this is as good as I can do unless you want to sign up for NYT's email swarm.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Sumter county, home of Jimmy Carter, is 71% in and 61-39 for Warnock.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Reminder that even as Warnock holds this 4%+ lead, DeKalb is only 5% in.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

I expect DeKalb's final margin to be around 85-15, maybe higher.  not personally sure what it was in the first round. That'd be a net of around 190k for Warnock from where he stands now.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Walker is running out of rural counties to make up the margin. It's down to 2.4 now, but that seems like it may be nearing a low point for Warnock.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

We've reached the area where the Needle is predicting a higher margin for Warnock than what's currently in. Which is reasonable given how much remains in DeKalb, Cobb, Fulton, Clayton...

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

We've reached the area where the Needle is predicting a higher margin for Warnock than what's currently in. Which is reasonable given how much remains in DeKalb, Cobb, Fulton, Clayton...

nvm it just shifted. But I think that where the needle was, was perfectly reasonable.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Oh oh.
Things are starting to swing to Walker.
Even the Times needle is starting to change.

I expect DeKalb's final margin to be around 85-15, maybe higher.  not personally sure what it was in the first round. That'd be a net of around 190k for Warnock from where he stands now.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Walker is ahead now

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

LOL

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Walker is leading now.
Ugggggg.

5% in for DeKalb, 60% for Clayton and Henry, 55% for Fulton, 23% for Cobb... Do I need to go on? This is Walker's ceiling at this point, unless Cobb's results are only Dem areas and everything else is in the still R-ish areas, which has a chance of roughly 0.001%.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Cobb up to 54% bringing Warnock within 1 again. 65-35 atm.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Also worth noting, outside of Atlanta the D areas are still reporting slowly. Dougherty is at under 50% in, Muskogee still has 30% to go, Chatham has roughly half, etc...

very bloomer feeling here.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Also worth noting, outside of Atlanta the D areas are still reporting slowly. Dougherty is at under 50% in, Muskogee still has 30% to go, Chatham has roughly half, etc...

very bloomer feeling here.

Bloomer?

Opposite of Doomer

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Just listened to Warnock's victory speech. He's serious presidential material.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Any theory for why Walker improved so much in Northern Georgia specifically? It's really the only region that had a clear swing toward him from November (the rest of rural GA was a wash and obviously metro Atlanta and other major cities swung toward Warnock). Why could that be? I heard it was raining pretty bad there on Election Day, but if that depressed turnout it should have hit Republicans harder since proportionally more Democrats voted early.

Perhaps Hispanic dropoff, similar to what happened in West Texas?

Are there so many Hispanics living at Georgia's Appalachian counties?

It’s like 10%, but that could def matter around the margins.

There are 10% Hispanics in the entire state but I'd expect the vast majority of them to live in Atlanta, not Rabun county.

you'd say that about northwestern SC too but there's a surprising number of hispanics in my home area. Plenty of check-cashing places with signs mostly in spanish, as an example.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

I am thankful for Warnock's patience tbh..he has now been involved in 4 different Senate campaigns in span of 2 years...we usually see how a single swing state Senate campaign itself can be gruelling, it's amazing that Warnock was involved in four such campaigns in just 2 years. It must have been exhausting

He joked about it during his victory speech.