GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[ProgressiveModerate]

Douglas County has the most votes in of any of the Atlanta metro counties (over 80%) and Warnock is leading there 69-31 (was 65-33 in November).

Crazy to think Obama barely won it in both 2008 and 2012. The black spillover into the County is literally insane. Same with Henry, Forsyth, and Rockdale; they're all just fundamentally different counties than they were a decade ago with a much more African-American electorate.

[Alben Barkley]

Warnock HQ is confident he will win.

[Horus]

Glynn county is now done, and while it did not shift 5 points left as earlier reported, it did go from Walker +27 in November to Walker +25 today.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Reminder that even as Warnock holds this 4%+ lead, DeKalb is only 5% in.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

My Warnock +3-4 prediction is looking pretty good atm, although it wasn't a very bold one in the first place.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Douglas County has the most votes in of any of the Atlanta metro counties (over 80%) and Warnock is leading there 69-31 (was 65-33 in November).

Crazy to think Obama barely won it in both 2008 and 2012. The black spillover into the County is literally insane. Same with Henry, Forsyth, and Rockdale; they're all just fundamentally different counties than they were a decade ago with a much more African-American electorate.

Obamacare was unpopular in 2010 due to penalty tax it's popular now even in red states die to Pandemic that's why's

[Alben Barkley]

Reminder that even as Warnock holds this 4%+ lead, DeKalb is only 5% in.

Yep, we haven't even had the charge of the Rohirrim yet, and the needle is giving Warnock an 80% chance anyway!

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1600298717667418112

Interesting, so more D's voting day-of.

COVID’s endemic now…so…

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Raphael Warnock*incumbent
Democrat    953,459    +52.1%52.1%
Herschel Walker
Republican    875,872    +47.9%47.9
Total reported
1,829,331

[Spectator]

Douglas County has the most votes in of any of the Atlanta metro counties (over 80%) and Warnock is leading there 69-31 (was 65-33 in November).

Crazy to think Obama barely won it in both 2008 and 2012. The black spillover into the County is literally insane. Same with Henry, Forsyth, and Rockdale; they're all just fundamentally different counties than they were a decade ago with a much more African-American electorate.

Forsyth’s black percentage isn’t substantially different than it was

[Skill and Chance]

Will Warnock ever relinquish his lead before the rest of DeKalb reports?

[Oryxslayer]

Also, BTW, the universe of votes we are looking at is effectively minus DeKalb and much of Cobb early, but with a lot of the rural E-Day. So thats another reason why things are callable.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Can we all be grateful that metro Atlanta isn't just one mega-county? It makes it easier to analyze results plus it means the counties overall count faster. Still wish they hadn't merged 3 counties to make Fulton County though.

[Oryxslayer]

Douglas County has the most votes in of any of the Atlanta metro counties (over 80%) and Warnock is leading there 69-31 (was 65-33 in November).

Crazy to think Obama barely won it in both 2008 and 2012. The black spillover into the County is literally insane. Same with Henry, Forsyth, and Rockdale; they're all just fundamentally different counties than they were a decade ago with a much more African-American electorate.

Forsyth’s black percentage isn’t substantially different than it was

I assume they mean Fayette, but Forsyth has undergone its own demographic transformation, just with Asian (mainly Chinese) Americans rather than African Americans.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Douglas County has the most votes in of any of the Atlanta metro counties (over 80%) and Warnock is leading there 69-31 (was 65-33 in November).

Crazy to think Obama barely won it in both 2008 and 2012. The black spillover into the County is literally insane. Same with Henry, Forsyth, and Rockdale; they're all just fundamentally different counties than they were a decade ago with a much more African-American electorate.

Forsyth’s black percentage isn’t substantially different than it was

Sorry I meant Fayette. Forsyth used to be purely rural and is now getting suburban spillover with a decent Asian minority. Still awhile before it flips though.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

I expect DeKalb's final margin to be around 85-15, maybe higher.  not personally sure what it was in the first round. That'd be a net of around 190k for Warnock from where he stands now.

[TheReckoning]

Is anyone actually surprised at this result? LOL

Dems gloating about this would be like Republicans gloating over DeSantis winning in Florida lmao

[Horus]

Douglas County has the most votes in of any of the Atlanta metro counties (over 80%) and Warnock is leading there 69-31 (was 65-33 in November).

Crazy to think Obama barely won it in both 2008 and 2012. The black spillover into the County is literally insane. Same with Henry, Forsyth, and Rockdale; they're all just fundamentally different counties than they were a decade ago with a much more African-American electorate.

Forsyth’s black percentage isn’t substantially different than it was

I assume they mean Fayette, but Forsyth has undergone its own demographic transformation, just with Asian (mainly Chinese) Americans rather than African Americans.

Forsyth has gone from 85% white in 2010 to 63% white as of 2020. The fact that Oprah did one of her most famous shows there in the 80s because it was still so horridly racist and basically a massive sundown county is wild to think about.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Walker is running out of rural counties to make up the margin. It's down to 2.4 now, but that seems like it may be nearing a low point for Warnock.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is anyone actually surprised at this result? LOL

Dems gloating about this would be like Republicans gloating over DeSantis winning in Florida lmao

I encourage you to go back through the overall results thread and look at how many blue avatars gloated about DeSantis.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1600301262188077057

[John Dule]

While this looks like the one senate race I'll end up predicting incorrectly, I want to state for the record that I think Atlas should have let us predict "runoff" in our initial predictions. Kind of lame that we have to predict the election day races plus the runoff a month later at the same time. All sorts of things can change in that interval.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

U.S. Senate
Candidate Party Votes PercentPct.
Raphael Warnock*incumbent
Democrat 974,378 +51.1%51.1%
Herschel Walker
Republican 934,006 +48.9%48.9
Total reported
1,908,384

[MT Treasurer]

Is anyone actually surprised at this result? LOL

No

Rural/small-town areas getting redder, blue areas getting bluer, Republicans underperforming in fast-growing areas (which often happen to be swing districts in the House). Consistent with Nov. 2022 and most Trump-era trends.

[Tekken_Guy]

Like ableism in Pennsylvania, nominating the dumbest man in America was not, it turns out, a winning campaign strategy.

What about nominating a fascist-adjacent Thielite in Arizona?