2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election

[ag]

As I said in the other thread, Capriles would be wise to stay out. Sympathy tsunami will make it impossible in this round.

They have to do it now - they might not have another chance. Chavez was charismatic and personally popular. Maduro has a charisma of a school bus driver. Under normal circumstances, he won't have much chance in even an unequal election, with government pulling the stops the way it did under Chavez. So, he  will be sorely tempted to not have even such an election. And if he does not yield to temptation, those around him will - with him or not. They can't sit out this election.

[ag]

I'd say Capriles should skip this one. In 2018 memories of Chavez will have faded and with a pretty uncharismatic candidate like Maduro he would have a fair chance to win.

Assuming there is an election in 2018 and it is not blatantly falsified. Precisely because Maduro is uncharismatic.

No, they HAVE TO run and win NOW.

[ag]

No, they HAVE TO run and win NOW.

Capriles CAN win this.

Assuming Maduro throws a few kids into the Orinoco river and Capriles is nearby, jumps in and rescues all of them.

At least the former part isn't too far-fetched.

[ag]

Demobilization on the Chavez side due to not having the Dear Leader anymore, or general demobilization because the result is already obvious?

More likely the other way around: demoralization on the opposition side. The government has the machine, the opposition, unfortunately, doesn't.

[ag]

This is going to be very close. However, when it is so close, the government should be able to massage it enough, no matter what. Unless, of course, they are even more incompetent than I expect them to be.

[ag]

This is apparently the opposition's official vote count:

Capriles 7.875.846
Maduro 6.443.874

where from?

[ag]

I hate this way of doing it. They should be publishing the results precinct by precinct as they come.

[ag]

They do, but not for public consumption. Gotta know where to add and subtract.

CNE?

[ag]

In any case, this is not how this should be done.

[ag]

Remember: last time it took them till about 10 PM. It is 9:40 in Caracas now.

[ag]

98% of the acts transmitted, apparently.

[ag]

Remember: last time it took them till about 10 PM. It is 9:40 in Caracas now.

Ah, the half-an-hour time zones.

Well, this is the properly Bolivarian time

[ag]

Reports that Capriles camp is saying they won by 500k votes.

From you lips to God's ears.

[ag]

Official results getting released within 10 minutes, according to some guy on twitter

At 10?

[ag]

It is 10 PM. So?

[ag]

Well, they are saying that at the Capriles headquarters they are mounting a stage - and doing the reverse at the Maduro headquarters.

Anyway, probably, nothing but stupid rumours.

[ag]

A bit late for exit polls. They should be posting actual results any point now.

[ag]

Sra. Lucena, ¿donde estas?

[ag]

Far too early. Rumours all over.

[ag]

They are, probably, negotiating. Seing, what is the military going to do.

[ag]

The military has made clear where their allegiances lie. Chavez spent a few hours with them before conceding '07, but that was Chavez and the presidency wasn't on the line.

Allegiances is one thing, a de facto coup is another. And there is no Chavez there: are they willing to go that far for El Pajarito Maduro?

[ag]

If they are actually refusing to publish the results, it means they are clear enough that no tinkering was possible. Wow.

Well, or else they are doing the tinkering right now.

[ag]

This is why they should be reporting the results LIVE. That way we wouldn´t be guessing. It is much easier to tinker in the dark.

[ag]

I don't think tinkering would take so much time, though. After all, all you have to do is uniformly take votes away from one candidate in each precinct and give them to the other.

Hard to do that - it is not such a hopeless system. There ARE actual protections.

[ag]

Apparently everything on hold till 4 AM Eastern, dunno if that's true. If so, then Capriles definitely won in the legitimate count.

They would have, at least, told this to the journalists, one would think. The Globovision and El Universal still seem to be waiting.