2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election

[Bacon King]

results ETA: 1 hour

[RogueBeaver]

Opposition saying weird stuff on Twitter like "we know what you know" (H/T CaracasChronicles) but I'm still predicting a single digit Maduro win.

[jaichind]

Capriles warns of plan to alter Venezuela vote results
April 15 (AFP) -- Venezuela's opposition candidate Henrique Capriles on Sunday warned there was a plan to alter the results in the special election to succeed late president Hugo Chavez.
"We alert the country and the world of the intention to change the choice expressed by the people," Capriles wrote on Twitter after polls began to close in his race against acting President Nicolas Maduro.
Capriles, who lost to Chavez by 11 points in the October presidential election, called on National Electoral Council president Tibisay Lucena to close all polling stations, saying there were attempts to let people vote in places that had already closed.
Vice President Jorge Arreaza swiftly condemned Capriles, telling him on state-run television to "be very careful."
"This is unheard of. Hopefully they hacked Capriles' Twitter account like President Nicolas Maduro was hacked," he said after the account of Chavez's political heir was taken over by hackers.
After voting in the afternoon, Capriles said he wanted a "true democracy" in Venezuela and accused the government of pressuring civil servants to vote for Maduro.

[RogueBeaver]

Opposition quick count says it's razor-thin, will be a very long night.

[ag]

This is going to be very close. However, when it is so close, the government should be able to massage it enough, no matter what. Unless, of course, they are even more incompetent than I expect them to be.

[RogueBeaver]

It depends what happens. Chavez sounded his inner circle and the military out before acknowledging his temporary defeat in 2007, I don't know what would happen here. Maduro is at best primus inter pares in Chavezland.

[Bacon King]

This is apparently the opposition's official vote count:

Capriles 7.875.846
Maduro 6.443.874

[ag]

This is apparently the opposition's official vote count:

Capriles 7.875.846
Maduro 6.443.874

where from?

[RogueBeaver]

Turnout's down, but that looks like 5-7 points to me. Too wide for mere massaging. BTW, the winner is apparently supposed to take the oath in 3 days.

[RogueBeaver]

This is apparently the opposition's official vote count:

Capriles 7.875.846
Maduro 6.443.874

where from?

Twitter or CaracasChronicles, I'm guessing.

Also: There are pix on Twitter of uniformed National Guard carrying ballot boxes... I think we can assume they aren't being secured. At least not secured in our sense of the term.

[RogueBeaver]

92% counted. Gulp.

[ag]

I hate this way of doing it. They should be publishing the results precinct by precinct as they come.

[RogueBeaver]

They do, but not for public consumption. Gotta know where to add and subtract.

[ag]

They do, but not for public consumption. Gotta know where to add and subtract.

CNE?

[ag]

In any case, this is not how this should be done.

[RogueBeaver]

Twitter saying that each man has won 4 or 5 states. Caprilesgagnado trending as well. Predictions that Capriles will win.

[Bacon King]

This is apparently the opposition's official vote count:

Capriles 7.875.846
Maduro 6.443.874

where from?

Twitter, came from some sort of opposition figure who's been (probably illegally?) posting results by region as they come in (I assume either the opposition gets access to CNE's count or it's from their own electoral monitors who are, like last time, at every precinct in the country).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wow, I wasn't hoping for it to be so close. Let's hope the chavist clique doesn't manage to rig this.

[RogueBeaver]

Wow, I wasn't hoping for it to be so close. Let's hope the chavist clique doesn't manage to rig this.

I'm seeing a 51.2-46.6 number thrown around a lot. Lots of people claiming Capriles has won and silence from the Maduro camp... but as I said, will believe it only if officially confirmed.

[Bacon King]

For the record, CNE officially has to wait until there's an "irreversible trend" in the results before they're publicly released. The fact that they've waited this long and overshot their own time estimates so far either means that:

A) it's extremely close, or
B) Capriles has a lead and they don't know what to do

(or, I guess, C, maybe they just suddenly started to suck at counting votes efficiently since the last election)

[Antonio the Sixth]

Option B) would not surprise me at all... But of course it could really be that close.

[RogueBeaver]

They'll be long meetings in Miraflores with all the phone lines burning up. Maduro said publicly he'd accept the result, but obviously his word means nothing and he isn't in full control of ChavezWorld. Chavez consulted everyone in 2007 before acknowledging defeat, not till late at night IIRC.

[ag]

Remember: last time it took them till about 10 PM. It is 9:40 in Caracas now.

[RogueBeaver]

For the record, CNE officially has to wait until there's an "irreversible trend" in the results before they're publicly released. The fact that they've waited this long and overshot their own time estimates so far either means that:

A) it's extremely close, or
B) Capriles has a lead and they don't know what to do

(or, I guess, C, maybe they just suddenly started to suck at counting votes efficiently since the last election)

The voting was by all accounts brisk and efficient today, no lines. So C seems a bit less plausible, though still a possibility.

[ag]

98% of the acts transmitted, apparently.