Canadian Election 2019

[beesley]

In other news, Lenore Zann has left the NS NDP, in order to run for the chance to lose to Scott Armstrong in Cumberland-Colchester.

To clarify, she's running federally for the *Liberals*.  (Which blurs the chance-to-lose potential, even if it infuriates the NDP left.)

Hmm, that's interesting, could put a wrinkle in what should be a fairly easy Tory pickup.

What’s in it for her? First of all apparently three other people are running for the Liberal nomination so who knows if she can even win the nomination. Second of all the Tories are heavily favoured to win that seat. The Nova Scotia Liberals are extremely unpopular these days. So what exactly does she gain? Does she think Trudeau might appoint her to the senate ?

This is all rumour, but I have heard talk that she strongly dislikes Gary Burrill, the leader of the NS NDP. She thinks he's taking the party in a too Halifax-centric direction (a perennial complaint from non Halifax NDPers).

I guess her decision kind of makes sense from that standpoint

Makes sense - NDP gained Halifax Chebucto and one of the two Dartmouth seats (forget which), whilst losing Chester-St Margaret's and Queens-Shelburne last time and failing to retake Sydney-Whitney Pier.

Is this the only major caucus in Canada with just one man, the rest being women?

[beesley]

This is all rumour, but I have heard talk that she strongly dislikes Gary Burrill, the leader of the NS NDP. She thinks he's taking the party in a too Halifax-centric direction (a perennial complaint from non Halifax NDPers).

I guess her decision kind of makes sense from that standpoint

Although Burrill was originally an MLA for a rural riding and only ran for a Halifax seat as a parachute candidate after he lost his seat in the 2013 election. Zann ran for the NS NDP leadership as the far left candidate claiming the party was way too centrist and had to be more socialist and go back to its roots. Now she is willing to throw in with the federal Liberals in a seat she will almost certainly lose...just doesnt make sense

What makes Truro-Bible Hill an NDP seat anyway? I suppose it is the only really dense seat outside HRM or Cape Breton.

Cumberland-Colchester is the likeliest Tory gain in Nova Scotia, probably followed by one of the Fraser seats. Zann may be from Truro, but she adds no bonus for voters in e.g. Amherst or Debert - she'll only win the nomination if she gets people who think: 'Wow! Lenore Zann, running for the Liberals! Let's nominate her!'

In fairness, Eddie Orrell's bid for Sydney-Victoria also seems a bit stupid.

[beesley]

I also do find it odd as someone who was placing themselves left of the current leadership would bolt to a centrist Federal party? The NDP would have made more sense. But I think her infighting with Burrill and thinking the LPC has a better shot then the NDP at least was part of it... still disappointing

We can always ask Glenn Thibeault how his current long-term political career is going. Needless to say this could be a lot shorter. Agreed, disappointing.

[beesley]

This is all rumour, but I have heard talk that she strongly dislikes Gary Burrill, the leader of the NS NDP. She thinks he's taking the party in a too Halifax-centric direction (a perennial complaint from non Halifax NDPers).

I guess her decision kind of makes sense from that standpoint

Although Burrill was originally an MLA for a rural riding and only ran for a Halifax seat as a parachute candidate after he lost his seat in the 2013 election. Zann ran for the NS NDP leadership as the far left candidate claiming the party was way too centrist and had to be more socialist and go back to its roots. Now she is willing to throw in with the federal Liberals in a seat she will almost certainly lose...just doesnt make sense

What makes Truro-Bible Hill an NDP seat anyway? I suppose it is the only really dense seat outside HRM or Cape Breton.

Cumberland-Colchester is the likeliest Tory gain in Nova Scotia, probably followed by one of the Fraser seats. Zann may be from Truro, but she adds no bonus for voters in e.g. Amherst or Debert - she'll only win the nomination if she gets people who think: 'Wow! Lenore Zann, running for the Liberals! Let's nominate her!'

In fairness, Eddie Orrell's bid for Sydney-Victoria also seems a bit stupid.

I think it was fair to say that Truro-Bible Hill wasn't an NDP seat, but a Zann-Seat. I feel her personal popularity/notoriety helped her hold the seat in 2013 and then increase her vote in 2017. I don't see this seat really staying NDP though... unless an equally high profile-well known NDP candidate is in place.

I also do find it odd as someone who was placing themselves left of the current leadership would bolt to a centrist Federal party? The NDP would have made more sense. But I think her infighting with Burrill and thinking the LPC has a better shot then the NDP at least was part of it... still disappointing

This. Rural Maritime politics are still very candidate based.

Andrew Younger (although he was Dartmouth rather than a rural seat) seems to be the most striking example from NS, gaining a seat from the NDP in 2009, other than Bill Casey of course.

[beesley]

https://mobile.twitter.com/liberal_party/status/1139245194531000320?p=v

Didn't see this coming. Not sure Kevin Flynn did either.

[beesley]

This happened like 2 weeks but the Toronto-Danforth NDP nominated a candidate. Probably their best shot in Toronto to win back a seat from the Liberals, along with Davenport where Andrew Cash is running to retake his seat.

https://twitter.com/kristynwongtam/status/1134273668211781638?s=20

Both are star candidates. The GTA is attracting a lot of the best CPC and NDP candidates.

[beesley]

Two Liberal MPs not running. Geng Tan of Don Valley North and Frank Baylis of Pierrefonds-Dollard.

Surprising - CPC is targeting neighbouring Willowdale, Markham-Thornhill and Scarboro Agincourt which are all similarly vulnerable, so add that to the mix. Pierrefonds-Dollard is however safe for the Liberals. I'm guessing that with the background of Tan, he would've wanted a higher position as an incentive to stay in politics.

[beesley]

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=89981

He's a projection of mine - based on what I've posted on EPP, but without tossups.

[beesley]

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=89981

He's a projection of mine - based on what I've posted on EPP, but without tossups.

Assuming that projection was right, what would be the outcome? A very unstable Conservative government propped up by BQ? Or some sort of "Coalition of chaos" propping up Trudeau?

Hard to tell as successful deals tend not to be the norm, and as the BQ would be the Kingmakers - (Lib+NDP+Green is only 164.) Deals between parties are also a more recent thing in Canada anyway as the high NDP+Green+BQ total owes itself to recent trends. In my opinion, the most likely outcome is that whatever government is formed would be largely short term. Andrew Scheer could do a Joe Clark and govern as an unstable minority, but unlike Joe Clark, who was no confidenced once his budget turned out not to be palatable as he still stuck to his platform, Scheer would have to make a lot more concessions. There is the option that neither the NDP or BQ support either party, leaving a minority situation for the Conservatives by default, as happened in 2006. As we saw in 2008, any coalition/c&s on the left would be a coalition of chaos. Unlike the current agreements in NB and BC, the smaller parties are considerably larger and hold more leverage.

It reminds me of the forecasts for the 2015 Election over here (I live in the UK rather than Canada currently) - the opposition leading the government with the third party leading and the two small ones gaining, but that turned out differently. Oof the 21 seats I have as 'Tilt Conservative' only Jonquiere could go to the Bloc, and the rest would go to a progressive party, so if the Conservatives got much less than this, they could struggle.

[beesley]

Trans Canada pipeline has been approved:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/tasker-trans-mountain-trudeau-cabinet-decision-1.5180269?fbclid=IwAR1a35cg-2WVKCH1eVltWkj9PVsMvFfjDBN1iNIhc1fl-7hcWCK_jUTcbjg

Expect a bump for the NDP and Greens (even though they support pipelines in general, but not this one). May see some soft centre-centre-right support move back from CPC to the LPC to compensate on the loss they will have in votes to the NDP and Greens. Expect some loss in support in Quebec too.

Pretty bad electorally - doubt that the small centre right party will be significant, and probably wouldn't keep them any Alberta seats still, but they may have just given Svend Robinson his seat in Parliament.

[beesley]

Steven Guilbeault will finally announce he is seeking the Liberal nomination in Laurier-Sainte-Marie. He defended the environment record of the government claining it's the government who has done the most for environment. He was against Trans Mountain. It will be interesting to see if voters who have the environment as a priority will follow the environment star.

The Green party is running Jamil Azzaoui, seems to be a singer.
https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1182432/jamil-candidat-parti-vert-elections-federales-laurier-sainte-marie-montreal
Maybe they should have run the Green co-leader to face Guilbeault since it was expected he would run there. The Bloc will run an author who was the candidate in the Outremont by-election. Could indicate they don't think they can win, could not run someone with a higher public profile ?
A riding with young people so the more they split between NDP and Greens, it's easier for Libs to win and Guilbeault has the personal environment brand.   

From what I've heard, the Bloc think they have a far better chance in Hochelaga, their candidate there, Simon Marchand, fought the seat last time and has been working hard for a while. Neither are definitive.

The Liberals will not be represented by an Italian in Saint-Léonard-Saint-Michel. Form imam Hassan Guillet is the candidate.

Former PQ health minister Réjean Hébert will probably run for the Liberal party. Trudeau met him last winter to recruit him. His issue is homecare. He said it's the progressive party who has a chance to win. For the riding, Sherbrooke or somewhere in greater Montreal were mentioned.   

The two best options seem to be Sherbrooke and Pierrefonds-Dollard, but neither are perfect for him.

[beesley]

Rob Ford's widow is running for the People's Party in Etobicoke North

Further proof that the Fords only care about their name and actually have little regard for the OPCs/CPC. But Kirsty Duncan should still be re-elected.

[beesley]

Rob Ford's widow is running for the People's Party in Etobicoke North

Further proof that the Fords only care about their name and actually have little regard for the OPCs/CPC. But Kirsty Duncan should still be re-elected.

Its not quite as simple as that...Renata Ford is "one Ford" - but she seems to be on the outs with the rest of the Ford family since she is suing Doug Ford for stealing money from her. I suspect that all the rest of "the Fords" will pull out all stops to ensure she is crushed like a bug

Forgot about that, thanks.

[beesley]

In the most hotly contested NDP nomination, probably in the country, Toronto's Parkdale-High Park, the NDP nominated Paul Taylor, Executive of FoodShare Toronto.
I believe he won on the first ballot.
But there are rumblings that many of Saron's supporters were not registered and the executive was not-so-subtly trying to support one candidate over the others.

Really glad he won - he should be a great MP for PHP. I'm not ideologically similar to him but I've seen him campaign, I was very impressed.

In my party's nomination news:

PC MLA Alfie Macleod was nominated for the safe NS Liberal seat of Cape Breton-Canso.
Jeremy Patzer won the one of most hotly contested CPC nominations in Cypress Hills-Grasslands.
After Hardazan Khattra was removed as candidate for Dufferin-Caledon, Kyle Seeback and Barb Shaughnessy.
Former Essex MP Jeff Watson is the favourite in Battle River-Crowfoot, our safest seat.


Surprisingly I'm really impressed with some of the candidates the CPC have already nominated - I'll go through them nearer the election.

[beesley]

In the most hotly contested NDP nomination, probably in the country, Toronto's Parkdale-High Park, the NDP nominated Paul Taylor, Executive of FoodShare Toronto.
I believe he won on the first ballot.
But there are rumblings that many of Saron's supporters were not registered and the executive was not-so-subtly trying to support one candidate over the others.

Really glad he won - he should be a great MP for PHP. I'm not ideologically similar to him but I've seen him campaign, I was very impressed.

In my party's nomination news:

PC MLA Alfie Macleod was nominated for the safe NS Liberal seat of Cape Breton-Canso.
Jeremy Patzer won the one of most hotly contested CPC nominations in Cypress Hills-Grasslands.
After Hardazan Khattra was removed as candidate for Dufferin-Caledon, Kyle Seeback and Barb Shaughnessy.
Former Essex MP Jeff Watson is the favourite in Battle River-Crowfoot, our safest seat.


Surprisingly I'm really impressed with some of the candidates the CPC have already nominated - I'll go through them nearer the election.

To add to your list, Tory MLA Chris d'Entremont won the nomination in West Nova over the weekend.

Thanks - wasn't aware. That should make him the favourite with the open seat, but I don't know anything about Jason Deveau. The Conservatives could win between 1 and 5 seats in NS (the 5 mainland rural ones, although Kings-Hants is a real outside chance; I don't see Macleod and Orrell winning, do they know something I don't?) - but I've heard Sackville is competitive? Perhaps you know about that.

[beesley]

In Regina-Lewvan, NDP is planning to nominate Jigar Patel, a local grocery store owner. Probably paves the way for a Liberal surge in the riding, they have a good candidate in Winter Fedyk, a prominent public servant in the city.

I'd be surprised.  The Liberals haven't had deep roots in Saskatchewan since at least 'Trudeaumania' in 1968.  Even when they won 5 seats in 1993 it was mostly due to the split on the right and the decline of the NDP in Saskatchewan, even as the NDP held 5 of their ten seats there in that election.

The Liberals were only behind the Tories and the NDP by 8% in 2015. With a weak NDP candidate, the Liberals could pick up a good chunk of the folks who voted for the NDP in the past.

As somebody who lives in SK and is an NDP supporter, I can't see Patel doing nearly as well as Weir did in 2015, and even the NDP riding association president basically said that she couldn't see the NDP keeping the seat. In Regina-Lewvan, I anticipate a lot of NDP -> Liberal swing voters this year, as the NDP has basically given up on the seat itself.

So, Erin Weir took a riding in 2015 that the NDP would have won by about 10% in 2011 and wins it by about 200 or so votes.

He then gets tossed out of the caucus on what may or may not have been fair charges, and he suddenly becomes something of a folk hero to the extent that NDP voters won't vote for the party in 2019?

They would have won it in 2011 by 500 votes (redistributed), so I doubt if the boundaries had changed then they would've scored that high a win, but yeah, you're right on the rest of it.

Thanks for the reply. 

I know there are only two federal Cape Breton ridings, but there are parts of Cape Breton that are more environmentally sensitive and reliant on that environment similar to Prince Edward Island.

For a party like the Greens a lot depends on where they actually target, so I don't see them going for Cape Breton - the two seats were to my knowledge the only two where the Liberals won a majority of electors, not just votes. That didn't even happen in Bonavista-Burin-Trinity. But I agree with you that Cape Breton is a more diverse place than it would first appear.

The Greens could focus on Halifax - but it would probably have a similar result, just with lower vote totals for the Grits and NDP. Fredericton is far and away their best target in the Atlantics as a whole so I'd be interested to see a poll of that.

[beesley]

The Greens could focus on Halifax - but it would probably have a similar result, just with lower vote totals for the Grits and NDP. Fredericton is far and away their best target in the Atlantics as a whole so I'd be interested to see a poll of that.

How about Charlottetown?

I did a long post on EPP about Charlottetown, which I've quoted below. I think it'll likely go Liberal again; I honestly think Fredericton is a far better shot for the Greens. Not that they don't do well in Charlottetown, but with small parties there's a fine line between seats they win, and seats they do well in.

I am no Liberal advocate, and I've been confident about the Green's chances elsewhere, but some questions remain unanswered here. First of all, if Guelph is listed as Liberal on this (which I agree with,) I'm not entirely sure why this would be closer, the provincial result there was better than here; the Greens did better and the Liberals actually won two seats against the odds as opposed to placing fourth. This area is still ripe for a Green breakthrough, the Southern part of the riding could see many Green votes, and whereas the Liberals have to worry about 6 or so seats in New Brunswick, this and another seat in PEI, 5 seats in Nova Scotia and 1 in Newfoundland, the Greens can focus on two in Atlantic Canada. Naturally the Liberals have a fundraising advantage, so that may be offset. Sean Casey is a good MP, and unlike in Guelph/Esquimalt etc. this riding is tiny, and Sean will be a more localised and recognisable face within the community. The Greens tend to do better in open races anyway (or NDP seats), not ones with a decent Liberal incumbent. But ultimately the provincial election is a completely different scenario. That was a choice between which of the other two parties (the NDP had no representation or momentum here) could be trusted as an alternative to the long-serving Liberals. The federal election will be a straight battle between the Liberals and Conservatives. As I spend some of my time in the UK, I remember 2015 - there UKIP were polling similarly, having also held two seats at dissolution, and we were talking about UKIP winning seats like Castle Point, Boston and Skegness, Great Grimsby and of course South Thanet. The GPEW were wondering if they could gain Norwich South (where they went backwards) and Bristol West. In reality, they won a single seat. Now, I'm not saying that the GPC will do as badly, but I'm saying that once they get their four on Vancouver Island, it's going to be a tough fight from there. So I'll call this as Liberal for now. But if the Greens are truly contesting, that is a different scenario to our current one, and so at that point I will reconsider. Otherwise, this is a Liberal seat, and should certainly stay that way.

So I think the Greens have a chance. But this is a far tougher fight for them.

[beesley]

In Regina-Lewvan, NDP is planning to nominate Jigar Patel, a local grocery store owner. Probably paves the way for a Liberal surge in the riding, they have a good candidate in Winter Fedyk, a prominent public servant in the city.

I'd be surprised.  The Liberals haven't had deep roots in Saskatchewan since at least 'Trudeaumania' in 1968.  Even when they won 5 seats in 1993 it was mostly due to the split on the right and the decline of the NDP in Saskatchewan, even as the NDP held 5 of their ten seats there in that election.

The Liberals were only behind the Tories and the NDP by 8% in 2015. With a weak NDP candidate, the Liberals could pick up a good chunk of the folks who voted for the NDP in the past.

As somebody who lives in SK and is an NDP supporter, I can't see Patel doing nearly as well as Weir did in 2015, and even the NDP riding association president basically said that she couldn't see the NDP keeping the seat. In Regina-Lewvan, I anticipate a lot of NDP -> Liberal swing voters this year, as the NDP has basically given up on the seat itself.

So, Erin Weir took a riding in 2015 that the NDP would have won by about 10% in 2011 and wins it by about 200 or so votes.

He then gets tossed out of the caucus on what may or may not have been fair charges, and he suddenly becomes something of a folk hero to the extent that NDP voters won't vote for the party in 2019?

They would have won it in 2011 by 500 votes (redistributed), so I doubt if the boundaries had changed then they would've scored that high a win, but yeah, you're right on the rest of it.

Thanks for the reply.  

I know there are only two federal Cape Breton ridings, but there are parts of Cape Breton that are more environmentally sensitive and reliant on that environment similar to Prince Edward Island.

For a party like the Greens a lot depends on where they actually target, so I don't see them going for Cape Breton - the two seats were to my knowledge the only two where the Liberals won a majority of electors, not just votes. That didn't even happen in Bonavista-Burin-Trinity. But I agree with you that Cape Breton is a more diverse place than it would first appear.

The Greens could focus on Halifax - but it would probably have a similar result, just with lower vote totals for the Grits and NDP. Fredericton is far and away their best target in the Atlantics as a whole so I'd be interested to see a poll of that.

I remember Hatman went through the redistributed numbers in 2015 including for Regina-Lewvan.  It may not have been as much as a redistributed 10% win in 2011 but I'm sure it was more than 500 votes.

https://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=cir/trans2013&document=p46&lang=e

It was slightly more - 506 votes.

[beesley]

I wonder if Ralph Goodale can hold on Regina.

So it would seem... but there are other seats seats Iggy won that are ripe for a Conservative pickup (or at least were until Doug Ford weakened the CPC in Ontario) such as Markham-Thornhill and Scarborough-Agincourt. Goodale is still a mild favourite in my view, but I wouldn't rule out a gain here.

[beesley]

Good news for my party: Tilly O'Neill-Gordon was nominated as the CPC candidate in Miramichi-Grand Lake. This is one of the more areas of NB more palatable to the CPC regardless of how right they go, with the PANB doing well. Despite previous Liberal strength, O'Neill-Gordon was a popular MP who held Finnigan to under 50% (a comparatively great result.)

[beesley]

http://338canada.com/map.htm

Canada has our own Nate Silver by name of Eric Grenier.

He's great as are Philippe Fournier and Robert Martin.

https://leantossup.ca is also a good website imo.

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/handongontario/status/1146757980123226113?p=v

In addition Geng Tan's wife is running, which is odd when you consider he said he stepped down to be closer to family. I would suspect as he was never given a cabinet/parlsec role despite his expertise in science, he probably felt he could be doing something better that was closer to home.

Don Valley North is of course a fairly marginal seat - but the Liberals are likely the favourites. Out of that bbelt of suburban and exurban diverse GTA seats (incl. York Centre, Markham-Thornhill, Richmond Hill, Scarborough-Agincourt, Markham-Unionville, Scarborough North, Willowdale) it's probably going to be onr of the most out of reach for the CPC (Scarborough North is also quite tricky)

[beesley]

FYI, Lisa Raitt cannot speak French. When she ran for leader she mouthed some horribly accented "French" that she was clearly reading from a script written in phonetics. GONG

Whereas Pierre Poilievre can - if Scheer forms government I suspect it'll between those two for Finance Minister, unless there's some star candidate I missed.

[beesley]

I’ve heard that despite his name being “Pierre Poilievre” he is 100% Anglo and barely speaks any French

I believe his first name was originally Peter but he had it changed.

I’ve heard that despite his name being “Pierre Poilievre” he is 100% Anglo and barely speaks any French

I believe the OP was referring to either Lisa Raitt or Pierre Polievre being named Finance Minister, not of them running for the Conservative leadership.

Yeah. Neither of them have great French skills.

Two interesting GTA things for you.

https://twitter.com/Travisdhanraj/status/1149041745373650950?p=v

Markham-Stouffville seems to be one of the York ridings trending to the CPC the least, so this should be a good race.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Qc_125/status/1149489736743919618?p=v

This is just the 416 - making it an awful result for the NDP, who had 8 seats here in 2011. The CPC could gain Scarborough Agincourt and York Centre.

[beesley]

For comparison, what was the Toronto result in 2015?

Not the exact figures but:

Lib 52
Con 25
NDP 18
Green 2