Spanish elections and politics

[Former President tack50]

Worth noting that that poll is just raw voting intention without any kind of adjustments. It's just the results of asking people who they'll vote for.

Though it's still bad news for Colau, who seems to be losing votes to the secessionist ERC. It's also very bad news for PP, which seems like they'll miss the 5% threshold and lose all representatives.

[Mike88]

SocioMétrica/El Español poll: (Projected seats in parentheses)

24.1% PP (97)
23.9% C's (86)
22.5% PSOE (89)
16.2% UP (49)
  3.5% ERC (13)
  1.9% PDC (6)
  1.7% Vox (1)
  1.1% PNV (6)
  0.7% Bildu (2)
  0.5% CC (1)
  3.9% Others

75.0% Turnout

Poll conducted between 22 and 29 December. Polled 1,000 voters.

[Former President tack50]

Wow, so Prime Minister Albert Rivera is actually a realistic possibility! Also, according to this poll, 3 coalitions would be possible:

PP+Cs
PP+PSOE
PSOE+Cs+CC

So anything would work really.

[TheSaint250]

LET’S GO RIVERA!!!!!

Also, is it basically a guarantee that Vox gets a seat?

[Former President tack50]

LET’S GO RIVERA!!!!!

Also, is it basically a guarantee that Vox gets a seat?

No, it's far from guaranteed in fact. This pollster is the only one that has seen them getting a seat though in their defense they are also the only ones polling VOX instead of just throwing them into "others".

In theory extrapolating from their 2014 EU parliament result they should be getting a seat with 1.5-1.6% of the vote nationally (they need 3% in Madrid). In 2014 with 1.6% they got 3.2% in Madrid. That would have given them 1 seat.

IMO if VOX gets a seat in the 2019 EU elections, they'll probably get at least one in the national election in 2020 (assuming Rajoy doesn't call a snap election this year). Same goes for PACMA or any other small party.

[Oryxslayer]

IMO if VOX gets a seat in the 2019 EU elections, they'll probably get at least one in the national election in 2020 (assuming Rajoy doesn't call a snap election this year). Same goes for PACMA or any other small party.

This is the first time I have heard anything about this, but with the way polling is going it could be favorable to the PP/C's coalition. I would assume Rajoy would love to shed the chaotic working agreement that has been in place since 2015/16. So - what are the chances of such a scenario? One would assume that the catalan issue would be the big topic - at least at the start, so PP/C's would have a favorable playing field.

[Former President tack50]

Well, an early election is a very real possibility. PNV doesn't really want to pass the 2018 budget (which is already late by the way, thankfully we don't get a government shutdown in that case XD) because of how PP has handled Catalonia.

I personally think PNV will pass the budget in the end but if they don't that would be a very good excuse to call an early election.

If there's an early election yes, PP/Cs will be very favoured.

[Lumine]

Any chance of a vote of no confidence if Rajoy doesn't call a snap election? It doesn't seem Unidos Podemos and PSOE are in very good shape to face such an election.

[TheSaint250]

LET’S GO RIVERA!!!!!

Also, is it basically a guarantee that Vox gets a seat?

No, it's far from guaranteed in fact. This pollster is the only one that has seen them getting a seat though in their defense they are also the only ones polling VOX instead of just throwing them into "others".

In theory extrapolating from their 2014 EU parliament result they should be getting a seat with 1.5-1.6% of the vote nationally (they need 3% in Madrid). In 2014 with 1.6% they got 3.2% in Madrid. That would have given them 1 seat.

IMO if VOX gets a seat in the 2019 EU elections, they'll probably get at least one in the national election in 2020 (assuming Rajoy doesn't call a snap election this year). Same goes for PACMA or any other small party.

I thought I saw an earlier poll on Wikipedia that also gave them a seat

[Former President tack50]

Yeah, but that one is from the same pollster (Sociométrica-El Español), just an older poll.

[Former President tack50]

Any chance of a vote of no confidence if Rajoy doesn't call a snap election? It doesn't seem Unidos Podemos and PSOE are in very good shape to face such an election.

I don't think so. There are only 2 possibilities for a successful no confidence vote:

PSOE somehow becomes open to a referendum or ERC and PDECat stop caring about independence a no confidence vote is impossible. The only viable majority would be:

PSOE+Podemos+ERC+PDECat+PNV.

The only alternative would be for Cs to break with PP and accept a PSOE-Cs-Podemos government.

[TheSaint250]

Yeah, but that one is from the same pollster (Sociométrica-El Español), just an older poll.

Ah, ok.

[Former President tack50]

Celeste-Tel / eldiario.es poll

PP: 29.8% (123-128)
PSOE: 25.1% (92-96)
Cs: 18.6% (54-59)
Podemos: 16.9% (49-54)
Pacma: 1.2% (0)
Others: 1.6% (0)

ERC: 2.5% (9-10)
PDECat: 1.7% (6-7)
PNV: 1.2% (5-6)
EH Bildu: 0.9% (2-3)
CC: 0.3% (1)
BNG: 0.2% (0)

PP+Cs get a majority even in the lower end, PSOE+Cs and PSOE+Podemos short of one in all cases.

[Former President tack50]

Also, today fmr. regional president of Catalonia Artur Mas has resigned as party president of PDECat. Apparently his resignation has serveral reasons:

-Puidemont's presidential style campaign (centered on him, not the party) has been extremely successful and he doesn't want to get on the way of his expansion

-His campaign also included more defiance to the Spanish government while Mas apparently wanted moderation and doesn't think that independence can be declared with 47% of the vote. Now that Puigdemont has been successful with a radical campaign he can't try and make Puigdemont more moderate.

-The "Caso Palau" corruption case involving CDC under Mas is about to say whether they are innocent or guilty so Mas is resigning to avoid further damage.

Also, apparently PDECat will contest the 2019 local elections as Junts x Catalunya, the brand used by Puigdemont's campaign.

Finally, worry about Catalonia's independence has dropped by 12% over the last 2 months, after article 155 was activated. It is now the 5th largest worry at 16.9%, behind unemployment (66.8%), corruption (31.7%), politics and politicians (28.5%) and the economy (22.5%)

[Former President tack50]

And Cs gest it's first polling lead in its history!

El País-Metroscopia



With those percentages, both Cs-PSOE and Cs-PP become viable choices. I wonder now if Cs will just stop supporting Rajoy, essencially forcing him to call a snap election.

[TheSaint250]

WOOHOOOOO!!!!!

Seriously though, barring a snap election (and maybe even then), their polling lead will probably shrink significantly by the next election.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

This is amazing! Could a C's government actually happen?

[NatAl]

Citizens lost votes in 2016 for agreeing with the PSOE, Albert should be an imbecile not to realize that his votes are former voters pp, his anti-Catalan discourse is in line with them and totally against what the Spanish left defends. I hope that in the future, citizens will turn more to the right.

[MaxQue]

Why so much cheering for a ethnic-nationalist party?

[Former President tack50]

This is amazing! Could a C's government actually happen?

With those numbers? Sure.

The electoral system is actually slightly rigged against Cs since they have a mostly urban base and spread out base while the system benefits rural areas and parties with a concentrated base, but not rigged enough to throw away a 4 point win. With those numbers and with an even swing from 2015 they'd get 100 seats, compared to PSOE's 85 and PP's 97.

So the Cs-PP gap is only of 3 seats while for a 4 point win you'd historically expect more like a 15-17 seat gap (like 2008 or 1993)

Whether you think Cs can actually not just come close to PP/PSOE, but overtake them and win the popular vote by a significant margin is a whole other story though.

[Former President tack50]

Why so much cheering for a ethnic-nationalist party?

How is Cs an "ethnic nationalist" party? They've adopted harsher rethoric against peripheral nationalisms but that's it. I don't think they are worse than say, the 00s PP, which collected signatures against the Catalan estatut.

Or the old UPyD, which actually did have in it's manifesto to take away some devolved powers (most notably healthcare and education) and give them back to the central government.

If it were VOX we were talking about (or God forbid, some of the tiny fascist parties like say, Falange, aka Franco's party) then sure. But Cs is just another liberal party with harsh rethoric against peripheral nationalism like UPyD.

[NatAl]

Why so much cheering for a ethnic-nationalist party?

How is Cs an "ethnic nationalist" party? They've adopted harsher rethoric against peripheral nationalisms but that's it. I don't think they are worse than say, the 00s PP, which collected signatures against the Catalan estatut.

Or the old UPyD, which actually did have in it's manifesto to take away some devolved powers (most notably healthcare and education) and give them back to the central government.

If it were VOX we were talking about (or God forbid, some of the tiny fascist parties like say, Falange, aka Franco's party) then sure. But Cs is just another liberal party with harsh rethoric against peripheral nationalism like UPyD.

Cs has embraced the flag to win votes and that's good, but inevitably they will turn right, you can not pretend to stay with conservative pp voters without being tougher than them.

[MaxQue]

Why so much cheering for a ethnic-nationalist party?

How is Cs an "ethnic nationalist" party? They've adopted harsher rethoric against peripheral nationalisms but that's it. I don't think they are worse than say, the 00s PP, which collected signatures against the Catalan estatut.

Or the old UPyD, which actually did have in it's manifesto to take away some devolved powers (most notably healthcare and education) and give them back to the central government.

If it were VOX we were talking about (or God forbid, some of the tiny fascist parties like say, Falange, aka Franco's party) then sure. But Cs is just another liberal party with harsh rethoric against peripheral nationalism like UPyD.

Which is a wordy way of saying "castillan nationalism".

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Why so much cheering for a ethnic-nationalist party?

Because Podemos, PSOE not under Susana Diaz, and PP suck. Also, I see a glimmer of hope for an Iberian En Marche!

[MaxQue]

Why so much cheering for a ethnic-nationalist party?

Because Podemos, PSOE not under Susana Diaz, and PP suck. Also, I see a glimmer of hope for an Iberian En Marche!

Why would any country want to copy plutocratic En Marche, Jenkinsite?